| Brazil : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | -2.32 | Â | 0.14 | 0.58 | 1.35 | 2.17 | Â | 1.22 | 0.91 | 1.27 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1808 | Â | 1929 | 1992 | 2024 | 2053 | Â | 2057 | 2018 | 1934 | 1934 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | -2.63 | Â | -1.03 | 0.91 | 2.41 | 3.05 | Â | 2.95 | 1.84 | 1.38 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 0.45 | Â | -1.65 | -1.06 | -1 | 0.19 | Â | 0.74 | -0.29 | 0.34 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -7.54 | Â | -5.05 | -7.42 | -0.89 | 3.65 | Â | 2.55 | 2.95 | 7.82 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 6.29 | Â | 4.57 | 3 | 2.54 | 2.95 | Â | 2.68 | 4.39 | 4.53 | 3.75 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 6.16 | Â | 5.51 | 4.18 | 3.84 | 3.83 | Â | 2.91 | 3.26 | 3.79 | 3.26 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 4.5 | Â | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 185.3 | Â | 195.1 | 202.7 | 210.5 | 217.7 | Â | 222 | 223.9 | 230.4 | 239.9 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 137.6 | Â | 141.4 | 142.4 | 145.7 | 150.8 | Â | 157.1 | 163.1 | 174.8 | 181.2 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 47.7 | Â | 53.7 | 60.3 | 64.8 | 67 | Â | 64.8 | 60.9 | 55.6 | 58.7 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -23.2 | Â | -18.6 | -12 | -8.2 | -5.5 | Â | -10 | -13.7 | -16.4 | Â | -14 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 72.53 | Â | 77.98 | 74.66 | 78.73 | 68.51 | Â | 66.4 | 65.42 | 73.45 | Â | 80.69 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -19.6 | Â | -17.5 | -15.1 | -2.2 | -1.7 | Â | 7.3 | 4.4 | -1.8 | Â | -6.7 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 365 | Â | 370 | 377 | 381 | 374 | Â | 380 | 380 | 381 | 375 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 32 | Â | 31 | 32 | 31 | 30 | Â | 29 | 28 | 26 | 25 | Â | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 3.35 | Â | 3.13 | 3.3 | 3.13 | 3.3 | Â | 3.28 | 3.78 | 4.11 | 3.89 | Â | 3.71 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 13.75 | Â | 12.25 | 10.25 | 8.25 | 7 | Â | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Â | 6.5 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 5.87 | Â | 0.45 | 10.89 | 6.37 | 9.79 | Â | 12.91 | 3.68 | 6.33 | Â | 5.69 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 4.55 | Â | 3.7 | 5.75 | 3.69 | 5.73 | Â | 9.27 | 7.65 | 10.1 | Â | 7.17 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 10.62 | Â | 11.18 | 9.45 | 9.07 | 7.44 | Â | 6.36 | 4.46 | 4.91 | Â | 5.07 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | -3.74 | Â | -2.61 | -3.33 | 1.28 | 0.47 | Â | 1.44 | 1.94 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -47.3 | Â | -48.9 | -55 | -51.8 | -38.9 | Â | -36.2 | -29.8 | -25.6 | Â | -29.3 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -9.86 | Â | -6.55 | -7.63 | -8.05 | -5.83 | Â | -4.9 | -7.04 | -7.37 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 930 | Â | 1034 | 1019 | 1095 | 1079 | Â | 1109 | 992 | 920 | Â | 1010 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 64.4 | Â | 69.4 | 70.2 | 75.5 | 68.7 | Â | 74.1 | 74.2 | 79.3 | Â | 72.7 | |
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 676 | Â | 679 | 667 | 681 | 667 | Â | 685 | 649 | 643 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 37.37 | Â | 35.2 | 33.49 | 33.63 | 32.49 | Â | 33.3 | 32.16 | 33.27 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 11.4 | Â | 10.06 | 10.54 | 9.73 | 10.26 | Â | 9.49 | 11.68 | 11.76 | 9.23 | Â | 9.19 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | 5.5 | Â | 4.8 | 4.88 | 4.44 | 4.56 | Â | 4.9 | 6 | 5.82 | 5.16 | Â | |
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 280 | Â | 228.5 | 241 | 197 | 161 | Â | 268.5 | 260 | 207 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Chile : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 0.33 | Â | -0.41 | 0.53 | 2.52 | 3.25 | Â | 4.48 | 5.38 | 2.75 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 250 | Â | 257 | 262 | 269 | 277 | Â | 289 | 298 | 298 | 298 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.17 | Â | 2.01 | 2.45 | 2.22 | 3.02 | Â | 3.78 | 4.37 | 3.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.89 | Â | 5.04 | 4.29 | 3.73 | 3.36 | Â | 1.88 | 3.5 | 2.32 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -2.67 | Â | -2.3 | -4.58 | -0.89 | 2.65 | Â | 2.97 | 6.97 | 7.11 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 2.71 | Â | 2.74 | 1.7 | 1.45 | 2.27 | Â | 1.81 | 2.54 | 3.14 | 2.57 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.93 | Â | 2.22 | 2.01 | 1.71 | 1.94 | Â | 1.65 | 1.94 | 2.28 | 2.06 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 60.7 | Â | 61.4 | 63.1 | 66.4 | 69.2 | Â | 73 | 75.6 | 75.6 | 75.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 55.3 | Â | 57 | 58.5 | 59.6 | 61.3 | Â | 63.1 | 66 | 68.3 | 70.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 5.4 | Â | 4.4 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 7.9 | Â | 9.9 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 5.4 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -3.5 | Â | -5.2 | -5.6 | -4.5 | -4.1 | Â | -3.3 | -4.4 | -6.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4.91 | Â | -1.85 | 0.61 | -0.65 | -1.6 | Â | -6.19 | -9.02 | -7.98 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.5 | Â | 2.7 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 9.8 | Â | 10.9 | 7.8 | 6.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 40 | Â | 39 | 39 | 38 | 39 | Â | 38 | 37 | 37 | 40 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 9 | Â | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | Â | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | Â | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 666.55 | Â | 662.16 | 664.59 | 625.99 | 635.21 | Â | 604.05 | 637.16 | 680.45 | 684.44 | Â | 674.56 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 3.5 | Â | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.75 | Â | 2.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 13.01 | Â | 7.1 | 5.8 | 5.59 | 7.38 | Â | 2.5 | 7.6 | 12.97 | -3.99 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 3.06 | Â | 5.41 | 10.28 | 11.91 | 10.71 | Â | 13.29 | 12.18 | 11.86 | 11.53 | Â | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 8.71 | Â | 9.44 | 8.48 | 6.5 | 4.77 | Â | 6.5 | 5.54 | 7.97 | 12.76 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 5.26 | Â | 5.4 | 4.86 | 4.89 | 4.91 | Â | 5.81 | 8.04 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -7 | Â | -8.5 | -7.4 | -7.2 | -7.7 | Â | -7.6 | -7.4 | -5.8 | Â | -5.6 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -5.91 | Â | -0.62 | -0.29 | -3.86 | -5.9 | Â | -0.42 | -0.17 | -1.56 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 83 | Â | 83 | 89 | 94 | 95 | Â | 102 | 98 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 32.8 | Â | 32.3 | 34.1 | 33.3 | 33.7 | Â | 33.7 | 33.3 | Â | |||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 167 | Â | 166 | 171 | 176 | 182 | Â | 184 | 178 | 180 | Â | 183 | |
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 61.39 | Â | 62.39 | 64.88 | 64.15 | 59.53 | Â | 59.19 | 58.98 | 65.51 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 4.36 | Â | 4.03 | 4.12 | 4.4 | 4.55 | Â | 4.55 | 4.55 | 4.79 | 4.79 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 82 | Â | 72 | 65 | 59.5 | 49 | Â | 60 | 44 | 63 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Colombia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.31 | Â | 1.34 | 2.25 | 1.82 | 1.75 | Â | 2.57 | 2.46 | 2.61 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 283 | Â | 297 | 304 | 309 | 314 | Â | 322 | 330 | 335 | 335 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 1.46 | Â | 1.74 | 1.6 | 2.14 | 1.62 | Â | 1.94 | 2.89 | 3.34 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 0.81 | Â | 2.52 | 4.18 | 4.84 | 4.51 | Â | 6.56 | 5 | 4.63 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -2.31 | Â | 0.57 | 6.96 | 4.31 | 1.55 | Â | -1.98 | -1.02 | 4.02 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 5.75 | Â | 4.69 | 3.99 | 3.97 | 4.09 | Â | 3.14 | 3.2 | 3.22 | 3.18 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 6.18 | Â | 6.01 | 5.31 | 4.87 | 4.87 | Â | 4.04 | 3.58 | 3.56 | 3.23 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 31.8 | Â | 34 | 35.1 | 36.6 | 37.9 | Â | 38.8 | 40.5 | 41.7 | Â | 42.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 42.8 | Â | 43.6 | 44.1 | 44.2 | 44 | Â | 44.1 | 45.5 | 46.8 | Â | 48 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -11.1 | Â | -9.6 | -9 | -7.6 | -6.1 | Â | -5.3 | -5 | -5.1 | Â | -5.8 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -12 | Â | -12.1 | -12 | -11.4 | -10.5 | Â | -9.8 | -10.4 | -10.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 9.33 | Â | 7.45 | 5.98 | 8.55 | 10.27 | Â | 9.51 | 10.39 | 8.44 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10 | Â | 9.6 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | Â | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 47 | Â | 47 | 47 | 48 | 48 | Â | 48 | 47 | 48 | 48 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 13 | Â | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | Â | 13 | 13 | 12 | Â | 12 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 3007.84 | Â | 2939.6 | 2967.18 | 2914.99 | 2989.48 | Â | 2843.45 | 2891.99 | 3033.28 | 3220.31 | Â | 3152.78 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 7.5 | Â | 7 | 5.75 | 5.25 | 4.75 | Â | 4.5 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 2.52 | Â | 2.45 | 3.87 | 2.35 | 4.98 | Â | 5.36 | 6.37 | 6.33 | 10.44 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | -1.28 | Â | -2.78 | 0.98 | 4.15 | 6.37 | Â | 7.1 | 6.22 | 7.38 | 7.24 | Â | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.08 | Â | 5.69 | 6.06 | 5.46 | 7.3 | Â | 6.43 | 5.06 | 5.56 | 5.6 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 5.2 | Â | 4.38 | 4.19 | 3.27 | 3.26 | Â | 3.7 | 3.61 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -10.8 | Â | -12.5 | -12.5 | -9.6 | -10.1 | Â | -9.5 | -12.1 | -15.2 | Â | -14.2 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -5.97 | Â | -4.83 | -0.13 | -1.64 | -6.07 | Â | -3.75 | -3.18 | -5.07 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 122 | Â | 128 | 129 | 135 | 134 | Â | 143 | 148 | 146 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 41.1 | Â | 41.55 | 41.72 | 42.19 | 41.96 | Â | 41.9 | 43.32 | 44.32 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 120 | Â | 121 | 121 | 124 | 125 | Â | 127 | 127 | 128 | Â | 129 | |
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 42.5 | Â | 38.5 | 38.4 | 39.5 | 39.6 | Â | 37.3 | 37.3 | 37.6 | Â | 38 | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 7.11 | Â | 6.65 | 6.42 | 6.57 | 6.48 | Â | 6.51 | 6.58 | 6.89 | 6.75 | Â | 6.94 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | 4.09 | Â | 3.91 | 3.78 | 3.69 | 3.64 | Â | 4.06 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 164 | Â | 134.5 | 137 | 121.5 | 104.5 | Â | 121.5 | 110 | 158 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Mexico : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.28 | Â | 3.45 | 1.9 | 1.51 | 1.48 | Â | 1.21 | 2.59 | 2.53 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1078 | Â | 1076 | 1093 | 1129 | 1161 | Â | 1202 | 1213 | 1217 | 1217 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 3.56 | Â | 3.52 | 3.49 | 3.2 | 2.33 | Â | 2.34 | 2.94 | 2.16 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.24 | Â | 3.04 | 1.05 | -0.37 | 0.24 | Â | 1.28 | 3.06 | 0.95 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 0.76 | Â | 0.64 | -2.93 | -0.92 | -2.95 | Â | 1.09 | 3.32 | 0.28 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 3.36 | Â | 5.35 | 6.31 | 6.35 | 6.77 | Â | 5.04 | 4.65 | 5.02 | 4.83 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 3.44 | Â | 4.48 | 4.83 | 4.8 | 4.87 | Â | 4.02 | 3.62 | 3.67 | 3.68 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 373.9 | Â | 383.5 | 392.4 | 399.4 | 409.4 | Â | 419.9 | 431.1 | 443.3 | Â | 449 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 387.1 | Â | 395.4 | 401.6 | 409.3 | 420.4 | Â | 429.9 | 443.6 | 455.4 | Â | 464.6 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -13.1 | Â | -11.9 | -9.1 | -9.9 | -11 | Â | -10 | -12.4 | -12.1 | Â | -15.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -24 | Â | -25.9 | -20.9 | -20.4 | -19.1 | Â | -17.5 | -18.8 | -18.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 29.31 | Â | 32.27 | 30.68 | 29.66 | 26.95 | Â | 25.54 | 27.61 | 22.28 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 29.7 | Â | 27.9 | 32.2 | 30.2 | 24 | Â | 19.1 | 26.4 | 15.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 177 | Â | 175 | 174 | 173 | 173 | Â | 173 | 173 | 174 | 175 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 5 | Â | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Â | 5 | 5 | 5 | Â | 4 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 20.52 | Â | 19.27 | 18.13 | 17.84 | 19.22 | Â | 18.58 | 20.3 | 19 | 20.09 | Â | 19.14 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 5.75 | Â | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 7.25 | Â | 7.5 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 8.25 | Â | 8.25 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 14.38 | Â | 12.82 | 10.82 | 8.39 | 8.85 | Â | 11.1 | 11.9 | 11.19 | Â | 11.23 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 15.52 | Â | 14.62 | 10.62 | 10.64 | 10.23 | Â | 9.37 | 12.62 | 7.77 | Â | 8.98 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 10.41 | Â | 9.8 | 8.62 | 9.38 | 10.48 | Â | 10.94 | 11.22 | 8.36 | Â | 8.38 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 16.71 | Â | 10.52 | 7.07 | 6.64 | 8.4 | Â | 9.2 | 12.5 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -25.2 | Â | -7.4 | -13.2 | -10.4 | -13.2 | Â | -34.4 | -33.7 | -31.1 | Â | -31.3 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -4.48 | Â | 5.41 | -3.07 | -1.46 | -4.83 | Â | -2.06 | -2.94 | -0.59 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 363 | Â | 385 | 409 | 428 | 402 | Â | 425 | 399 | 430 | Â | 418 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 35.49 | Â | 34.61 | 33.99 | 34.71 | 34.34 | Â | 34.28 | 34.7 | 34.36 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 413 | Â | 429 | 437 | 446 | 437 | Â | 452 | 444 | 452 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 38.93 | Â | 40.83 | 37.27 | 36.07 | 36.74 | Â | 36.83 | 36.86 | 36.04 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 7.42 | Â | 7.01 | 6.78 | 6.86 | 7.64 | Â | 7.32 | 7.6 | 7.93 | 8.64 | Â | 8.61 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 156.5 | Â | 130.5 | 114 | 111 | 106 | Â | 131.5 | 112 | 155 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Peru : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.04 | Â | 2.25 | 2.58 | 2.73 | 2.31 | Â | 3.15 | 5.48 | 2.27 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 195 | Â | 200 | 204 | 209 | 215 | Â | 219 | 223 | 225 | 225 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 3.05 | Â | 2.25 | 2.48 | 2.75 | 2.59 | Â | 3.17 | 4.49 | 3.33 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -13.67 | Â | -8.86 | -2.54 | 2.02 | 6.65 | Â | 3.78 | 0.41 | -1.77 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -6.99 | Â | -7.08 | -3.2 | 5.51 | 2.77 | Â | 5.37 | 8.47 | 0.77 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 3.23 | Â | 3.97 | 2.73 | 2.95 | 1.36 | Â | 0.36 | 1.43 | 1.28 | 2.19 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.87 | Â | 2.72 | 2.38 | 2.45 | 2.15 | Â | 1.99 | 2.23 | 2.09 | 2.21 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 37.1 | Â | 39.5 | 41.7 | 43.6 | 45.3 | Â | 46.9 | 48.9 | 49.1 | Â | 48.9 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 35.1 | Â | 35.7 | 36.6 | 37.5 | 38.7 | Â | 39.8 | 41 | 41.8 | Â | 42.1 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2 | Â | 3.8 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.6 | Â | 7.2 | 7.9 | 7.3 | Â | 6.8 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -5.2 | Â | -3.9 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -2.4 | Â | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 6.86 | Â | 7.93 | 6.38 | 5.73 | 6.77 | Â | 6.85 | 8.18 | 8.98 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -0.5 | Â | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | Â | 2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 62 | Â | 63 | 63 | 64 | 64 | Â | 62 | 59 | 58 | 60 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 21 | Â | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | Â | 19 | 17 | 17 | Â | 17 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 3.39 | Â | 3.26 | 3.27 | 3.25 | 3.25 | Â | 3.25 | 3.27 | 3.31 | 3.36 | Â | 3.35 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 4.25 | Â | 4.25 | 4 | 3.5 | 3.25 | Â | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | Â | 2.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 4.06 | Â | 4.16 | 8.09 | 4.32 | 7.18 | Â | 10.53 | 7.23 | 7.29 | Â | 7.27 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 6.27 | Â | 5.51 | 6.25 | 5.94 | 7.12 | Â | 11.34 | 10.72 | 9.07 | Â | 8.54 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 1.7 | Â | 2.31 | 3.73 | 3.99 | 7.89 | Â | 8.35 | 8.06 | 5.26 | Â | 5.79 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 5.12 | Â | 3.62 | 3.87 | 3.81 | 5.11 | Â | 7.44 | 9.16 | 9.28 | 9.08 | Â | |
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4.4 | Â | -4.3 | -5.2 | -6.2 | -7 | Â | -7.3 | -5.3 | -4.7 | Â | -4.7 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -5.97 | Â | 1.21 | -1.4 | -5.45 | -6.65 | Â | 0.43 | 2.25 | -4.32 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 46 | Â | 47 | 50 | 51 | 54 | Â | 52 | 52 | 53 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 75 | Â | 75 | 79 | 79 | 77 | Â | 76 | 75 | 75 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 36.11 | Â | 38.22 | 37.11 | 35.99 | 33.41 | Â | 35.65 | 32.5 | 33.54 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 6.38 | Â | 5.77 | 5.54 | 5.29 | 5.17 | Â | 4.83 | 5.58 | 5.61 | 5.64 | Â | 5.56 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 108 | Â | 101.5 | 86 | 82 | 72 | Â | 88 | 73 | 95 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Argentina : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | -1.1 | Â | 0.61 | 3.02 | 3.8 | 3.91 | Â | 3.86 | -4.02 | -3.54 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 554 | Â | 580 | 601 | 618 | 637 | Â | 644 | 627 | 584 | 584 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | -2.1 | Â | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.48 | Â | 4.34 | 0.58 | -4.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -1.96 | Â | 1.43 | 3.48 | 1.78 | 1.96 | Â | -1.2 | -2.59 | -5.03 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -5.82 | Â | 3.14 | 7.97 | 12.99 | 19.31 | Â | 15.69 | 2.89 | -11.2 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 41.05 | Â | 35.03 | 23.38 | 26.16 | 26.13 | Â | 25.4 | 29.84 | 39.46 | Â | 46.77 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 35.21 | Â | 29.89 | 24.12 | 24.21 | 23.52 | Â | 23.15 | 26.76 | 35.87 | Â | 41.78 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 22.5 | Â | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | |
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 57.9 | Â | 58.2 | 58.3 | 58.3 | 58.6 | Â | 60.4 | 60.4 | 60.2 | Â | 60.9 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 55.9 | Â | 57.1 | 59.7 | 63.3 | 66.9 | Â | 69.9 | 71 | 69.8 | Â | 66.9 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2 | Â | 1.1 | -1.4 | -5 | -8.3 | Â | -9.5 | -10.6 | -9.7 | Â | -6 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -15.1 | Â | -17.4 | -21.2 | -26.5 | -31.6 | Â | -34 | -35.8 | -35.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.47 | Â | 2.8 | 5.22 | 7.56 | 10.36 | Â | 9.58 | 9.84 | 9.46 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 36.1 | Â | 46.9 | 39.5 | 40 | 41.4 | Â | 42.3 | 35.2 | 26.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 39 | Â | 51 | 48 | 50 | 55 | Â | 62 | 62 | 49 | 66 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 8 | Â | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 11 | 10 | 8 | Â | 9 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 15.86 | Â | 15.52 | 16.12 | 17.24 | 17.72 | Â | 20.23 | 26.7 | 38.62 | 37.84 | Â | 36.91 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 24.75 | Â | 24.75 | 26.25 | 26.25 | 28.75 | Â | 27.25 | 40 | 40 | 40 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 26.62 | Â | 35.26 | 31.04 | 28.03 | 24.72 | Â | 28.75 | 31.52 | 45.68 | 36.04 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 27.88 | Â | 28.53 | 33.09 | 35.52 | 19.57 | Â | 26.32 | 33.28 | 20.37 | 21.58 | Â | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 21.26 | Â | 29.16 | 29.77 | 29.02 | 27.09 | Â | 34.11 | 34.66 | 41.24 | 40.35 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 33.41 | Â | 31.69 | 37.39 | 42.83 | 47.95 | Â | 51.88 | 66.34 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -22.9 | Â | -22.5 | -24.3 | -22.3 | -24 | Â | -22.8 | -19.3 | -16.3 | Â | -14.9 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -5.99 | Â | -1.81 | -3.89 | -2.86 | -6.3 | Â | -1.02 | -2.11 | -1.28 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 275 | Â | 285 | 294 | 306 | 321 | Â | 331 | 327 | 308 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 47.49 | Â | 48.76 | 43.63 | 48.32 | 48.85 | Â | 54.1 | 54.16 | 66.32 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 181 | Â | 199 | 205 | 218 | 235 | Â | 253 | 261 | 255 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 30.99 | Â | 32.6 | 31.94 | 34.5 | 35.37 | Â | 39.46 | 45.38 | 55.15 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 17.7 | Â | 16.13 | 16.2 | 14.13 | 17.32 | Â | 16.91 | 19.32 | 22.39 | 21.58 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | 6.7 | 6.39 | 5.75 | 5.6 | Â | 6.7 | 8.74 | 9.24 | 10.87 | Â | ||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 415 | Â | 365 | 324 | 284.5 | 232 | Â | 450 | 561 | 805 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Czech Rep. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.8 | Â | 2.95 | 4.96 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Â | 4.07 | 2.36 | 2.35 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 195 | Â | 196 | 198 | 206 | 217 | Â | 231 | 241 | 244 | 244 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 3.18 | Â | 3.97 | 4.14 | 4.43 | 4.4 | Â | 4.09 | 3.48 | 3.07 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.03 | Â | 2.27 | 1.46 | 0.6 | 0.89 | Â | 2.74 | 2.7 | 5.24 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -4.72 | Â | 0.41 | 3.97 | 5.01 | 4.99 | Â | 9.03 | 9.61 | 9.05 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 2.01 | Â | 2.6 | 2.29 | 2.69 | 2.36 | Â | 1.66 | 2.62 | 2.33 | 2.02 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.99 | Â | 2.81 | 2.4 | 2.77 | 2.3 | Â | 1.4 | 2.24 | 2.05 | 1.74 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 162.7 | Â | 164.8 | 166.8 | 172.9 | 182.2 | Â | 191.3 | 197.7 | 199.9 | Â | 202.5 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 143 | Â | 145.4 | 148.2 | 154.5 | 163.4 | Â | 171.9 | 178.3 | 181.6 | Â | 183.7 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 19.7 | Â | 19.4 | 18.6 | 18.4 | 18.9 | Â | 19.4 | 19.4 | 18.3 | Â | 18.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3.2 | Â | 2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.9 | Â | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.68 | Â | 10.1 | 7.2 | 5.13 | 5.66 | Â | 3.64 | 4.02 | 3.62 | Â | 2.51 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.6 | Â | 19.1 | 20.3 | 16.3 | 13.8 | Â | 2.2 | -6 | 0.3 | Â | 4.6 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 86 | Â | 131 | 142 | 147 | 148 | Â | 150 | 144 | 144 | 143 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 7 | Â | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 9 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 25.65 | Â | 25.29 | 23.37 | 21.9 | 21.68 | Â | 20.61 | 22.1 | 21.97 | 22.71 | Â | 22.29 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.05 | Â | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.5 | Â | 0.75 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 11.39 | Â | 11.71 | 14.4 | 2.69 | -9.44 | Â | -20.36 | -23.28 | -16.14 | Â | 5.88 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 10.37 | Â | 14.24 | 12.53 | 11.62 | 10.25 | Â | 4.92 | 5.03 | 4.05 | Â | 5.14 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 6.53 | Â | 11.76 | 12 | 12.25 | 10.36 | Â | 6.47 | 6.14 | 5.11 | Â | 6.98 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.1 | Â | 5.1 | 4.05 | 3.29 | 4.28 | Â | 4.44 | 6.25 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.5 | Â | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0 | -0.3 | Â | 0.3 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.65 | Â | 0.4 | 0 | 0.99 | -1.77 | Â | 1.32 | -1.66 | 1.68 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 63 | Â | 71 | 77 | 74 | 75 | Â | 83 | 78 | 76 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 33.52 | Â | 36.5 | 35.58 | 31.49 | 31.39 | Â | 32.74 | 32.53 | 31.27 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 136 | Â | 172 | 192 | 202 | 205 | Â | 209 | 196 | 199 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 71.01 | Â | 89.06 | 92 | 87.59 | 86.43 | Â | 82.61 | 79.97 | 82.25 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 0.41 | Â | 0.87 | 1.06 | 1.3 | 1.65 | Â | 1.84 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 1.88 | Â | 1.81 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 40.5 | Â | 42 | 37.5 | 40 | 36 | Â | 41 | 43 | Â | |||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Hungary : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.01 | Â | 4.47 | 3.53 | 4.08 | 4.47 | Â | 4.46 | 4.93 | 4.94 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 126 | Â | 127 | 129 | 134 | 140 | Â | 148 | 153 | 154 | 154 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 4.08 | Â | 3.94 | 4.61 | 5.02 | 5.57 | Â | 5.98 | 5.53 | 5.22 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -2.47 | Â | -3.79 | -0.35 | 2.82 | 6.31 | Â | 1.14 | 1.03 | 1.19 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -16.07 | Â | 19.99 | 24.45 | 18.77 | 11.61 | Â | 17.14 | 15 | 20.03 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.77 | Â | 2.68 | 1.89 | 2.53 | 2.13 | Â | 1.97 | 3.08 | 3.59 | Â | 3.11 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.73 | Â | 1.9 | 2.38 | 2.89 | 2.65 | Â | 2.4 | 2.42 | 2.36 | Â | 2.63 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 103 | Â | 105.1 | 106.3 | 109.3 | 113.5 | Â | 118.7 | 123.1 | 123.7 | Â | 124.2 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 92.2 | Â | 95 | 96.5 | 100 | 104.4 | Â | 109.2 | 113.9 | 115.8 | Â | 116.5 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10.8 | Â | 10.2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | Â | 9.5 | 9.2 | 7.9 | Â | 7.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.9 | Â | 6.7 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 4.4 | Â | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.52 | Â | 2.77 | 2.62 | 1.9 | 1.91 | Â | 1.76 | 2.95 | 3.93 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4.2 | Â | -1.8 | -3 | -2.1 | -2.1 | Â | -1.2 | -1.8 | -1.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 26 | Â | 26 | 27 | 26 | 28 | Â | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 296.11 | Â | 289.85 | 274.39 | 259.09 | 264.49 | Â | 253.12 | 276.61 | 278.51 | 283.48 | Â | 280.19 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.9 | Â | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Â | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Â | 0.9 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 13.63 | Â | 18.1 | 13.8 | 22.7 | 15.96 | Â | 22.15 | 22.86 | 16.42 | Â | 14.48 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 23.29 | Â | 24.4 | 24.77 | 27.15 | 18.73 | Â | 22.71 | 22.66 | 18.09 | Â | 15.36 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.06 | Â | 7.55 | 9.89 | 12.75 | 7.82 | Â | 13.72 | 15.73 | 13.14 | Â | 12.67 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | -1.27 | Â | -2.27 | -5.11 | -1.05 | -2.52 | Â | -0.3 | 6.14 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2.6 | Â | -2.6 | -4 | -7 | -7.1 | Â | -10 | -9.6 | -8.3 | -5.4 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -6.96 | Â | -2.01 | -7.74 | -3.86 | -5.84 | Â | -9.67 | -5.72 | -0.61 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 86 | Â | 90 | 96 | 102 | 101 | Â | 109 | 102 | 102 | Â | 102 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 70.64 | Â | 70.36 | 69.5 | 67.73 | 67.78 | Â | 68.69 | 68.35 | 66.14 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 117 | Â | 120 | 125 | 129 | 124 | Â | 129 | 123 | 122 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 95.04 | Â | 94.02 | 91.04 | 85.03 | 82.9 | Â | 80.77 | 80.88 | 79.19 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 3.16 | Â | 3.25 | 3.08 | 2.62 | 2.03 | Â | 2.39 | 3.62 | 3.54 | 2.97 | Â | 2.84 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 123 | Â | 115 | 108.5 | 97 | 85 | Â | 90 | 87 | 91 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Poland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.54 | Â | 4.89 | 4.39 | 5.42 | 4.52 | Â | 5 | 5.11 | 5.72 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 471 | Â | 475 | 484 | 503 | 529 | Â | 560 | 577 | 583 | 583 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 4.66 | Â | 4.66 | 4.99 | 4.89 | 5.11 | Â | 3.97 | 4.62 | 4.52 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -0.35 | Â | 2.29 | 3.16 | 3.68 | 4.5 | Â | 2.88 | 3.17 | 4.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -9.57 | Â | 1.46 | 1.53 | 3.95 | 6.29 | Â | 8.3 | 5.03 | 10.22 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 0.85 | Â | 2.02 | 1.53 | 2.22 | 2.06 | Â | 1.37 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 1.11 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.01 | Â | 0.64 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 0.89 | Â | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.87 | Â | 0.7 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 203.7 | Â | 206.8 | 209.3 | 217.6 | 228.2 | Â | 240.7 | 252.6 | 257.7 | Â | 259.7 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 198.4 | Â | 203.2 | 207.7 | 214.8 | 227.8 | Â | 241.8 | 254.7 | 262.4 | Â | 265.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 5.3 | Â | 3.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | Â | -1.2 | -2.1 | -4.6 | Â | -5.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2.5 | Â | 0.1 | -2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | Â | -0.9 | 0 | -3 | Â | -3.5 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 4.67 | Â | 2.14 | -2.43 | -1.39 | 6.3 | Â | 7.57 | 12.19 | 14.86 | Â | 12.7 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2.1 | Â | 7 | 2 | 3.1 | 6 | Â | 4.3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | Â | -1.7 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 114 | Â | 112 | 112 | 111 | 113 | Â | 119 | 109 | 113 | 117 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 7 | Â | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | Â | 6 | 5 | 5 | Â | 5 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 4.21 | Â | 4.01 | 3.75 | 3.59 | 3.55 | Â | 3.41 | 3.69 | 3.69 | 3.77 | Â | 3.74 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 3.92 | Â | 10.59 | 9.05 | 8.96 | 5.2 | Â | 5.01 | 2.7 | 11.03 | 25.94 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 17.8 | Â | 14.86 | 12.19 | 12.08 | 11.17 | Â | 9.82 | 11 | 11.93 | Â | 11.49 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 9.58 | Â | 7.81 | 4.98 | 5.44 | 4.64 | Â | 5.78 | 7.28 | 7.85 | Â | 8.79 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 6.92 | Â | 5.14 | 3.53 | 4.15 | 0.71 | Â | 3.33 | 4.57 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -11.5 | Â | -9.6 | -5.2 | -5.2 | -7.2 | Â | -5.7 | -6 | -7.1 | Â | -3.3 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -4.86 | Â | -0.5 | 1.7 | -0.42 | -5.19 | Â | 0.64 | 1.26 | -1.21 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 213 | Â | 226 | 243 | 252 | 251 | Â | 270 | 249 | 246 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 47.1 | Â | 46.84 | 46.23 | 44.88 | 43.99 | Â | 44.75 | 43.91 | 42.18 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 340 | Â | 347 | 367 | 372 | 382 | Â | 395 | 363 | 367 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 72.62 | Â | 72.69 | 71.52 | 66.81 | 67.69 | Â | 65.24 | 62.25 | 63.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 3.62 | Â | 3.48 | 3.31 | 3.36 | 3.29 | Â | 3.16 | 3.21 | 3.23 | 2.81 | Â | 2.76 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 78.5 | Â | 68 | 61.5 | 53 | 50 | Â | 62 | 67 | 67 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Romania : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 4.76 | Â | 5.65 | 6.13 | 8.81 | 6.72 | Â | 4 | 4.09 | 4.35 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 189 | Â | 191 | 194 | 203 | 213 | Â | 222 | 231 | 236 | 236 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 5.15 | Â | 7.29 | 7.32 | 13.57 | 11.68 | Â | 5.86 | 5.06 | 4.58 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.4 | Â | 8.92 | 4.28 | 19.22 | 6.82 | Â | 1.87 | 3.14 | 10.74 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -12.13 | Â | -0.91 | -0.37 | 6.21 | 10.05 | Â | 6.31 | -4.79 | -1.61 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | -0.53 | Â | 0.19 | 0.86 | 1.77 | 3.32 | Â | 4.95 | 5.4 | 5.03 | Â | 3.43 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.45 | Â | 1.09 | 1.63 | 1.82 | 2.72 | Â | 3.22 | 3.26 | 3.05 | Â | 2.61 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 63.5 | Â | 64.7 | 65.5 | 67.8 | 70.8 | Â | 75.2 | 78.5 | 79.6 | Â | 80.1 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 71.4 | Â | 72.9 | 74.7 | 77.6 | 82 | Â | 87.1 | 90.5 | 92.3 | Â | 93.8 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -7.9 | Â | -8.1 | -9.1 | -9.9 | -11.2 | Â | -11.9 | -12.1 | -12.7 | Â | -13.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4 | Â | -4.5 | -5.2 | -6 | -6.7 | Â | -7.2 | -7.5 | -9.6 | Â | -10.2 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 4.98 | Â | 5.2 | 4.45 | 5.6 | 5.58 | Â | 6.28 | 5.9 | 6.21 | Â | 6.17 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.5 | Â | 1.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.9 | Â | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | Â | 3.9 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 35 | Â | 36 | 39 | 38 | 39 | Â | 41 | 36 | 35 | 36 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 6 | Â | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | Â | 6 | 5 | 5 | Â | 5 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 4.29 | Â | 4.26 | 4.07 | 3.86 | 3.91 | Â | 3.78 | 3.99 | 3.98 | 4.09 | Â | 4.08 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | Â | 2.25 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 15.51 | Â | 18.61 | 13.94 | 7.38 | 14.49 | Â | 21.21 | 8.09 | 16.32 | Â | 18.91 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 20.35 | Â | 24.03 | 19.12 | 21.7 | 17.03 | Â | 14.9 | 14.32 | 11.4 | Â | 13.19 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 9.74 | Â | 12.06 | 8.86 | 12.22 | 11.45 | Â | 11.67 | 12.87 | 10.26 | Â | 10.88 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | -3.04 | Â | -0.49 | 2.22 | 6.64 | 2.46 | Â | 1.98 | 3.53 | 3.09 | Â | 3.65 | |
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -7 | Â | -7.8 | -7.7 | -7.1 | -7.8 | Â | -9.5 | -9.8 | -10.2 | Â | -11 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -5.88 | Â | -3.2 | -4.76 | -0.66 | -5.85 | Â | -6.03 | -4.7 | -1.35 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 63 | Â | 64 | 69 | 73 | 73 | Â | 76 | 73 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 34.2 | Â | 33.38 | 33.66 | 32.38 | 32.23 | Â | 31.68 | 31.22 | Â | |||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 98 | Â | 101 | 108 | 113 | 115 | Â | 120 | 114 | 114 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 45.36 | Â | 64.97 | 55.48 | 45.53 | 43.35 | Â | 62.79 | 52.01 | 42.87 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 3.47 | Â | 3.86 | 3.92 | 4.09 | 4.31 | Â | 4.46 | 5.21 | 4.98 | 4.81 | Â | 4.66 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 110 | Â | 100 | 110 | 100 | 90 | Â | 92 | 104 | 105 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Russia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 0.4 | Â | 0.6 | 2.52 | 2.18 | 0.87 | Â | 1.34 | 1.94 | 1.54 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1296 | Â | 1390 | 1462 | 1520 | 1578 | Â | 1619 | 1636 | 1642 | 1642 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | -1.5 | Â | 1.74 | 3.02 | 4.21 | 4.3 | Â | 2.75 | 2.55 | 2.15 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 1 | Â | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.38 | 0.36 | Â | 0.46 | 0.59 | -0.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 5.6 | Â | 3.12 | 6.97 | 4 | 3.41 | Â | 1.81 | 1 | 2.78 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 5.38 | Â | 4.25 | 4.35 | 2.96 | 2.52 | Â | 2.36 | 2.3 | 3.39 | 4.23 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 5.97 | Â | 4.47 | 3.47 | 2.76 | 2.12 | Â | 1.87 | 2.28 | 2.8 | 3.74 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 4 | Â | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 281.7 | Â | 303.8 | 319.8 | 333.5 | 353.5 | Â | 372.5 | 397.5 | 423.3 | Â | 433 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 191.5 | Â | 201.5 | 214.7 | 225.9 | 238.1 | Â | 247.5 | 252.1 | 250.9 | Â | 251 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 90.2 | Â | 102.3 | 105.2 | 107.6 | 115.4 | Â | 125 | 145.4 | 172.3 | Â | 182 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 24.5 | Â | 33.1 | 33.1 | 29.8 | 33.3 | Â | 42.1 | 58.8 | 89.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 32.54 | Â | 37.76 | 43.3 | 47.1 | 28.56 | Â | 30.92 | 20.21 | 7.88 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3 | Â | 0.2 | -2.2 | 4.9 | 9.3 | Â | 15.1 | 5.8 | -6.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 378 | Â | 398 | 412 | 425 | 433 | Â | 458 | 457 | 459 | Â | 462 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 24 | Â | 24 | 23 | 23 | 22 | Â | 22 | 22 | 22 | Â | 22 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 61.93 | Â | 57.81 | 58.09 | 57.68 | 58.57 | Â | 57.12 | 62.81 | 67.63 | 67.58 | Â | 66.9 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 10 | Â | 9.75 | 9 | 8.5 | 7.75 | Â | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.5 | 7.75 | Â | 7.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 7.6 | Â | 5.18 | 7.52 | 11.91 | 23.72 | Â | 34.08 | 42.13 | 26.62 | Â | 20.08 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 6.82 | Â | 5.51 | 7.06 | 8.99 | 10.58 | Â | 11.8 | 14.21 | 14.25 | Â | 12 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | -0.91 | Â | 1.24 | 4.33 | 4.66 | 7.39 | Â | 8 | 9.74 | 11.11 | Â | 11.12 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | -6.48 | Â | -5.43 | -0.51 | -0.12 | 2.06 | Â | 5.1 | 7.12 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -46.4 | Â | -41.9 | -32.2 | -27.7 | -23.3 | Â | -11.3 | -0.2 | 22 | Â | 38.6 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -6.05 | Â | -1.33 | -0.61 | 0.78 | -4.36 | Â | 1.82 | 2.18 | 6.18 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 138 | Â | 158 | 160 | 178 | 179 | Â | 186 | 167 | 157 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 9.68 | Â | 10.18 | 10.2 | 11.08 | 11.1 | Â | 10.92 | 10.24 | 10.17 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 512 | Â | 522 | 527 | 530 | 518 | Â | 520 | 491 | 470 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 35.11 | Â | 32.71 | 34.21 | 33.21 | 31.6 | Â | 30.69 | 30.01 | 29.54 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 8.36 | Â | 7.91 | 7.69 | 7.58 | 7.49 | Â | 7.04 | 7.68 | 8.53 | 8.7 | Â | 8.44 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | 4.46 | Â | 4.17 | 4.28 | 4.04 | 3.87 | Â | 4.54 | 4.79 | 4.88 | 5.05 | Â | |
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 181.5 | Â | 166.5 | 170 | 142 | 118 | Â | 140.5 | 143.5 | 153 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Kazakhstan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.46 | Â | 3.1 | 5.25 | 4.2 | 3.14 | Â | 4.1 | 4.29 | 3.91 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 134 | Â | 140 | 146 | 151 | 158 | Â | 162 | 166 | 169 | 169 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 8.5 | Â | 7.77 | 7.55 | 7.1 | 7 | Â | 6.49 | 5.96 | 6.01 | 5.34 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 8.8 | Â | 7.4 | 6.72 | 6.5 | 6.49 | Â | 6.17 | 6.39 | 6.31 | 6.42 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 36.7 | Â | 39.3 | 43.2 | 45.2 | 48.5 | Â | 51.5 | 54.2 | 58.3 | Â | 59.8 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 25.4 | Â | 26.3 | 27.8 | 28.8 | 29.6 | Â | 30.7 | 31.1 | 32 | Â | 32.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 11.4 | Â | 13.1 | 15.4 | 16.4 | 18.9 | Â | 20.9 | 23.1 | 26.3 | Â | 27.4 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -8.9 | Â | -9.2 | -7.9 | -7.5 | -5.4 | Â | -4.5 | -3.1 | -1.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 13.43 | Â | 12.96 | 11.24 | 4.75 | 3.7 | Â | 5.23 | 4.61 | 5.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2 | Â | -1.5 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | Â | 0.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 30 | Â | 30 | 30 | 32 | 31 | Â | 31 | 30 | 30 | Â | 30 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 14 | Â | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | Â | 12 | 12 | 11 | Â | 11 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 334.05 | Â | 315.92 | 318.91 | 339.53 | 333.97 | Â | 320.64 | 336.92 | 367.44 | 372.43 | Â | 376.5 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 12 | Â | 11 | 10.5 | 10.25 | 10.25 | Â | 9.5 | 9 | 9 | 9.25 | Â | 9.25 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 8.67 | Â | 4.12 | 5.72 | 30.58 | 7.25 | Â | -12.18 | 10.83 | 1.91 | Â | 3.56 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 51.34 | Â | 37.36 | 18.72 | 35.6 | 8.24 | Â | -2.44 | 11.3 | -6.46 | Â | 2.73 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 15.61 | Â | 8.67 | 7.02 | 6.76 | -1.73 | Â | -1.56 | 1.37 | -3.6 | Â | 2.69 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2.1 | Â | -1 | -1.1 | -4.3 | -4.4 | Â | -4.1 | -4.3 | -1.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.4 | Â | -0.13 | -0.73 | -7.64 | -2.17 | Â | 0.77 | -1.32 | -0.31 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 34 | Â | 38 | 37 | 38 | 40 | Â | 45 | 42 | 40 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 23.78 | Â | 24.69 | 23.44 | 24.85 | 24.84 | Â | 26.16 | 24.1 | 23.84 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 163 | Â | 165 | 168 | 169 | 167 | Â | 167 | 164 | 161 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 86.1 | Â | 131.59 | 121.68 | 110.43 | 77.26 | Â | 118.01 | 107.22 | 96.87 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 153 | Â | 152 | 149 | 133 | 110 | Â | 74 | 78 | Â | |||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| South Africa : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.04 | Â | 1 | 1.24 | 1.56 | 1.45 | Â | 0.82 | 0.42 | 1.09 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 297 | Â | 315 | 330 | 341 | 349 | Â | 364 | 374 | 375 | 375 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 0.9 | Â | 0.93 | 2.34 | 2.74 | 2.86 | Â | 3.19 | 1.54 | 1.12 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 1.58 | Â | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.5 | 0.42 | Â | 1.22 | 1.04 | 1.44 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -1.74 | Â | 0.34 | 0.57 | 1.05 | -0.42 | Â | 0.34 | -0.09 | -0.98 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 6.72 | Â | 6.12 | 5.11 | 5.06 | 4.7 | Â | 3.81 | 4.57 | 4.91 | Â | 5.18 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 5.93 | Â | 4.93 | 4.79 | 4.64 | 4.2 | Â | 4.11 | 4.18 | 4.24 | Â | 4.43 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 4.5 | Â | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 76.4 | Â | 80.9 | 83.2 | 85.4 | 89 | Â | 91.2 | 92.7 | 93.9 | Â | 94.8 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 75.1 | Â | 77.8 | 80.4 | 81.5 | 83.2 | Â | 87.3 | 89.1 | 91.9 | Â | 94.1 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.3 | Â | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 5.8 | Â | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2 | Â | 0.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -8.1 | Â | -6.9 | -7.7 | -7.7 | -8.3 | Â | -11.7 | -12.2 | -13.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.31 | Â | 1.6 | 3.87 | 7.28 | 6.16 | Â | 6.84 | 2.71 | -1.51 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 9.5 | Â | 9.5 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 21.4 | Â | 26.9 | 22.4 | 17.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 47 | Â | 47 | 47 | 49 | 51 | Â | 50 | 51 | 50 | 52 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 8 | Â | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | Â | 7 | 7 | 7 | Â | 6 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 13.85 | Â | 12.94 | 12.9 | 13.17 | 13.08 | Â | 11.84 | 13.33 | 14.77 | 14.3 | Â | 13.84 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 7 | Â | 7 | 7 | 6.75 | 6.75 | Â | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.75 | Â | 6.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 6.45 | Â | 4.08 | 6.74 | 5.81 | 6.83 | Â | 7.62 | 5.82 | 7.36 | 9.08 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 12.49 | Â | 7.6 | 11.48 | 12.82 | 5.85 | Â | 5.23 | 2.59 | 6.4 | Â | 4.09 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 6.07 | Â | 5.59 | 6.09 | 7.13 | 6.42 | Â | 6.43 | 5.77 | 7 | Â | 5.69 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.83 | Â | 5.13 | 6.39 | 7.24 | 6.8 | Â | 5.56 | 6.01 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -12.4 | Â | -11.2 | -12.2 | -13.7 | -14.5 | Â | -16.2 | -16.7 | -16.5 | Â | -16.1 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.39 | Â | 0.59 | -4.75 | -9.36 | -3.22 | Â | -1.22 | -4.19 | -8.69 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 162 | Â | 173 | 179 | 184 | 189 | Â | 210 | 196 | 183 | Â | 196 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 49.99 | Â | 50.07 | 50.21 | 51.3 | 51.06 | Â | 52.56 | 52.99 | 53.11 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 143 | Â | 152 | 159 | 163 | 173 | Â | 183 | 171 | 168 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 44.61 | Â | 44.87 | 45.32 | 45.76 | 49.31 | Â | 45.87 | 43.79 | 46.77 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 9.62 | Â | 9.73 | 9.86 | 9.72 | 9.71 | Â | 8.85 | 9.67 | 9.91 | 9.9 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 217.5 | Â | 218.5 | 199.5 | 186.5 | 157 | Â | 215 | 204 | 223 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Turkey : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 4.24 | Â | 5.27 | 5.3 | 11.49 | 7.34 | Â | 7.24 | 5.3 | 1.56 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 862 | Â | 847 | 834 | 845 | 852 | Â | 883 | 880 | 824 | 824 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 6.31 | Â | 4.54 | 3.13 | 10.26 | 6.27 | Â | 9.1 | 6.39 | 1.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 6.05 | Â | 9.04 | -1.82 | 7.62 | 5.89 | Â | 3.48 | 7.81 | 7.48 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 1.19 | Â | 3.92 | 7.65 | 12.75 | 6.6 | Â | 7.88 | 4.2 | -3.82 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 8.53 | Â | 11.29 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.92 | Â | 10.23 | 15.39 | 24.52 | 20.3 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 7.48 | Â | 9.46 | 9.2 | 10.98 | 12.3 | Â | 11.44 | 14.6 | 24.05 | 19.53 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 5 | Â | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 142.5 | Â | 145.7 | 148.3 | 153.4 | 157 | Â | 160.3 | 161.8 | 164.9 | 168.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 198.6 | Â | 202.3 | 207.3 | 221.3 | 233.8 | Â | 245.3 | 248.4 | 239 | 223.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -56.1 | Â | -56.6 | -59 | -67.9 | -76.8 | Â | -84.9 | -86.7 | -74.1 | -55 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -33.1 | Â | -33.4 | -35 | -39.5 | -47.4 | Â | -55.4 | -57.4 | -46 | Â | -33.9 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10.2 | Â | 10.26 | 9.58 | 8.94 | 8.22 | Â | 7.12 | 7.77 | 7.62 | Â | 7.49 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.8 | Â | 8.9 | 16.6 | 22.1 | 24.1 | Â | 22.7 | 6.6 | -0.6 | Â | 1.8 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 106 | Â | 106 | 109 | 112 | 108 | Â | 110 | 98 | 85 | Â | 91 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 6 | Â | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | Â | 5 | 5 | 4 | Â | 5 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 3.5 | Â | 3.67 | 3.52 | 3.48 | 3.84 | Â | 3.89 | 4.63 | 6.32 | 5.32 | Â | 5.46 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 8 | Â | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | Â | 8 | 17.75 | 24 | 24 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 37.3 | Â | 14.78 | 11.64 | -0.17 | 3.64 | Â | 9.8 | 19.03 | 37.45 | 6.46 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 22.81 | Â | 26.33 | 22.78 | 24.97 | 17.74 | Â | 12.27 | 21.92 | 28.61 | Â | 13.16 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 17.86 | Â | 18.18 | 19.65 | 19.79 | 16.11 | Â | 16.74 | 20.04 | 28.82 | Â | 15.87 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 16.7 | Â | 21.43 | 22.93 | 23.55 | 21.24 | Â | 19.54 | 21.72 | 27.76 | 12.56 | Â | |
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -9.6 | Â | -13.1 | -14.9 | -14.3 | -13.5 | Â | -14.5 | -17.7 | -16.5 | Â | -18.6 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.31 | Â | -2.3 | -1.4 | -0.77 | -1.81 | Â | -2.59 | -2.9 | -1.05 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 217 | Â | 216 | 231 | 243 | 229 | Â | 235 | 209 | 178 | Â | 196 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 27.08 | Â | 27.68 | 27.1 | 26.49 | 26.3 | Â | 26.25 | 26.72 | 29.01 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 409 | Â | 418 | 440 | 446 | 455 | Â | 467 | 457 | 448 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 44.88 | Â | 59.51 | 53.71 | 47.09 | 48.52 | Â | 56.57 | 56.49 | 62.17 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 11.08 | Â | 10.64 | 10.27 | 10.68 | 11.35 | Â | 12.27 | 12.27 | 20.03 | 17.25 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | 5.86 | Â | 5.5 | 5.16 | 5.02 | 5.59 | Â | 5.88 | 6.85 | 7.36 | 7.11 | Â | |
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 272.5 | Â | 239.5 | 195.5 | 187 | 166 | Â | 297 | 376.5 | 360.5 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Israel : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 4.65 | Â | 3.86 | 4.29 | 2.45 | 3.21 | Â | 4.17 | 3.49 | 2.91 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 319 | Â | 326 | 335 | 343 | 354 | Â | 363 | 367 | 369 | 369 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 5.26 | Â | 3.11 | 3.4 | 2.62 | 3.99 | Â | 5.89 | 3.65 | 3.25 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 1.8 | Â | 4.18 | 4.02 | 0.93 | 4.52 | Â | 4.64 | 3 | 5.59 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 11.33 | Â | 1.75 | 4.36 | 3 | 2.51 | Â | 7.26 | 4.64 | -2.91 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | -0.2 | Â | 0.92 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | Â | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | Â | 1.2 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.1 | Â | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.2 | 0.3 | Â | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | Â | 0.8 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 52.2 | Â | 52.9 | 53.2 | 52.5 | 53.1 | Â | 53.5 | 54.1 | 54.3 | 54.3 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 65.1 | Â | 65.5 | 65.5 | 65.8 | 68 | Â | 71.3 | 74.9 | 77.2 | 79.6 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -12.9 | Â | -12.5 | -12.3 | -13.3 | -14.9 | Â | -17.8 | -20.8 | -22.9 | -25.3 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 12.3 | Â | 11.4 | 11 | 10.8 | 10.1 | Â | 8.6 | 8.3 | 7.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 11.99 | Â | 11.25 | 11.44 | 12.07 | 18.17 | Â | 20.63 | 20.64 | 20.97 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3 | Â | 2.9 | 7.6 | 2 | 1.9 | Â | 2.7 | -3.3 | 2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 98 | Â | 103 | 109 | 111 | 113 | Â | 116 | 115 | 115 | 115 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 18 | Â | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | Â | 20 | 18 | 18 | 17 | Â | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 3.83 | Â | 3.65 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 3.5 | Â | 3.47 | 3.61 | 3.59 | 3.76 | Â | 3.67 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.1 | Â | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | Â | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Â | 0.25 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 10.82 | Â | 16.89 | 8.91 | 4.32 | 11.02 | Â | 4.53 | 8.24 | 9.62 | Â | 8.37 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 17.22 | Â | 15.65 | 14.57 | 13.14 | 12.57 | Â | 13.62 | 12.99 | 12.81 | Â | 14.88 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 5.8 | Â | 6.25 | 5.84 | 6.34 | 5.23 | Â | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.09 | 1.89 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 5.59 | Â | 5.38 | 4.48 | 4.93 | 3.44 | Â | 5.9 | 5.47 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -6.7 | Â | -7.6 | -8.4 | -6.4 | -7.1 | Â | -7 | -6.8 | -12.3 | -10.6 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -6.12 | Â | -0.73 | -2.05 | 1.25 | -6.14 | Â | -0.65 | -1.75 | -4.81 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 198 | Â | 208 | 217 | 218 | 217 | Â | 224 | 217 | 221 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 60.82 | Â | 60.72 | 60.62 | 60.28 | 58.92 | Â | 59.72 | 59.69 | 59.8 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 87 | Â | 88 | 92 | 94 | 89 | Â | 92 | 92 | 93 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 60 | Â | 61 | 60 | 60 | 59 | Â | 57 | 56 | 57 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.06 | Â | 2.36 | 2.13 | 1.77 | 1.7 | Â | 1.64 | 1.98 | 2 | 2.32 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 75.5 | Â | 71.5 | 68.5 | 55.5 | 58.5 | Â | 67 | 70 | 67 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Egypt : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.81 | Â | 4.27 | 5 | Â | Â | |||||||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 308 | Â | 277 | 252 | 224 | 229 | Â | 240 | 250 | 250 | 250 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 7.86 | Â | 3.21 | 3.18 | Â | Â | |||||||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.52 | Â | 2.94 | 2.79 | Â | Â | |||||||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 22.66 | Â | 5.66 | 6.32 | Â | Â | |||||||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 23.3 | Â | 30.89 | 29.75 | 31.58 | 21.92 | Â | 13.32 | 14.36 | 15.99 | 11.93 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 25.86 | Â | 32.25 | 31.95 | 33.26 | 19.87 | Â | 11.59 | 10.89 | 8.56 | 8.3 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 13 | Â | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 21.7 | Â | 23.1 | 23.7 | 24.8 | 26.1 | Â | 26.6 | 26.8 | 27.2 | Â | 27.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 68.1 | Â | 66.6 | 64.6 | 64.5 | 65 | Â | 65.8 | 67.8 | 68.8 | Â | 70.3 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -46.4 | Â | -43.5 | -40.9 | -39.6 | -39 | Â | -39.3 | -40.9 | -41.5 | Â | -42.9 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -20.5 | Â | -17.6 | -14.4 | -10.8 | -7.9 | Â | -7 | -6 | -6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 13.84 | Â | 13.69 | 13.37 | 13.03 | 12.53 | Â | 12.85 | 13.16 | Â | |||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 0.5 | Â | 8 | 16 | 24.3 | 23.8 | Â | 23.1 | 12.1 | 1.4 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 24 | Â | 29 | 31 | 37 | 37 | Â | 43 | 44 | 44 | 43 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 4 | Â | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | Â | 8 | 8 | 8 | Â | 8 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 18.48 | Â | 17.75 | 18.11 | 17.65 | 17.82 | Â | 17.62 | 17.88 | 17.92 | 17.92 | Â | 17.93 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 15.25 | Â | 15.25 | 17.25 | 19.25 | 19.25 | Â | 18.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 | 17.25 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 18.5 | Â | 22.62 | 20.81 | 15.44 | 29.67 | Â | 28.42 | 24.02 | 20.14 | Â | 1.97 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 20.18 | Â | 19.09 | 23.47 | 21.63 | 17.87 | Â | 21.25 | 15.99 | 13.76 | Â | 13.77 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 39 | Â | 38.03 | 39.33 | 39.72 | 20.92 | Â | 21.85 | 18.37 | 16.36 | Â | 14.04 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -32.4 | Â | -20.9 | -20.9 | -20.9 | -20.9 | Â | -23.8 | -23.8 | -23.8 | -23.8 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -12.5 | Â | -10.9 | -10.9 | -10.9 | -10.9 | Â | -9.8 | -9.8 | -9.8 | -9.8 | Â | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 174 | Â | 196 | 198 | 230 | 230 | Â | 230 | 230 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 96.6 | Â | 94.82 | 91.27 | 87.95 | 87.95 | Â | 87.95 | 87.95 | Â | |||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 67 | Â | 74 | 79 | 81 | 83 | Â | 88 | 93 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 28.7 | Â | 31.5 | 33.6 | 36.1 | 36.1 | Â | 36.8 | 37 | Â | |||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 445 | Â | 340 | 399.5 | 360 | 325 | Â | 350 | 390 | Â | |||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Nigeria : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | -1.63 | Â | -1.04 | 0.78 | 1.2 | 2.06 | Â | 2.04 | 1.46 | 1.76 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 414 | Â | 386 | 361 | 370 | 376 | Â | 384 | 396 | 410 | 410 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | -14.53 | Â | 5.39 | 0.97 | -11.8 | 3.38 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -17.83 | Â | 5.9 | -19.46 | -17.33 | -1.02 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -7.97 | Â | -3.44 | -11.2 | -0.01 | 4.79 | Â | Â | |||||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 18.55 | Â | 17.25 | 16.1 | 15.98 | 15.37 | Â | 13.34 | 11.23 | 11.29 | Â | 11.28 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 14.7 | Â | 13.58 | 12.02 | 12.73 | 12.59 | Â | 11.85 | 11.2 | 10.47 | Â | 10.44 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 7.5 | Â | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | Â | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | Â | |
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 34.7 | Â | 37.1 | 38.6 | 42.7 | 45.8 | Â | 50.3 | 55.3 | 59.5 | Â | 61 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 38.2 | Â | 37.3 | 34.8 | 35.4 | 35.4 | Â | 36.3 | 34.7 | 34.4 | Â | 37 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -3.5 | Â | -0.3 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 10.4 | Â | 14 | 20.4 | 24.6 | Â | 23.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.7 | Â | 5 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 10.4 | Â | 8.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3 | Â | 2.94 | 2.94 | 2.37 | 2 | Â | 1.89 | 1.42 | 1.09 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.8 | Â | 2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 7.4 | Â | 11.3 | 14 | 12.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 27 | Â | 30 | 30 | 33 | 39 | Â | 46 | 48 | 44 | 43 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 8 | Â | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | Â | 15 | 17 | 15 | Â | 14 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 315.39 | Â | 314.63 | 323.04 | 357.48 | 360.15 | Â | 360.06 | 361.25 | 362.68 | 363.98 | Â | 362.86 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 14 | Â | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | Â | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | Â | 14 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 0.61 | Â | -2 | 2.02 | 6.98 | 10.88 | Â | 19.66 | 16.06 | 22.35 | Â | 27.19 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 31.5 | Â | 13.2 | 7.05 | 2.39 | -0.85 | Â | 7.81 | 5.01 | 6.13 | Â | 7.09 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 17.78 | Â | 8.96 | -0.44 | -0.27 | 2.33 | Â | 9.51 | 12.89 | 15.14 | Â | 14.28 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -9.2 | Â | -9 | -7.4 | -8.6 | -8.7 | Â | -8.4 | -7.1 | -5.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.15 | Â | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.2 | -3.2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 35 | Â | 38 | 37 | 35 | 35 | Â | 35 | 34 | 34 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 8.47 | Â | 9.86 | 10.32 | 9.46 | 9.29 | Â | 9.09 | 8.48 | 8.27 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 11 | Â | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | Â | 22 | 22 | 22 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 2.94 | Â | 4.02 | 4.21 | 3.94 | 4.56 | Â | 5.87 | 5.44 | 4.88 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | 280 | Â | 365 | Â | ||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| China : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 6.8 | Â | 6.95 | 6.9 | 6.85 | 6.75 | Â | 6.84 | 6.69 | 6.45 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 11182 | Â | 11334 | 11492 | 11808 | 12264 | Â | 12773 | 13302 | 13537 | 13537 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 4.46 | Â | 5.48 | 4.44 | 4.42 | 4.06 | Â | 5.29 | 5.34 | 5.23 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 4.46 | Â | 5.48 | 4.44 | 4.42 | 4.06 | Â | 5.29 | 5.34 | 5.23 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 2.89 | Â | 1.32 | 2.39 | 2.39 | 2.21 | Â | 2.13 | 2.14 | 2.13 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 2.11 | Â | 0.89 | 1.51 | 1.5 | 1.7 | Â | 1.91 | 1.59 | 2.31 | 1.79 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.02 | Â | 2.12 | 2.22 | 2.32 | 2.12 | Â | 1.92 | 1.71 | 1.51 | 1.71 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2097.6 | Â | 2129.8 | 2172.4 | 2207.6 | 2263.3 | Â | 2328.9 | 2393.2 | 2463 | Â | 2503.8 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1588 | Â | 1669.6 | 1724.6 | 1786.4 | 1843.8 | Â | 1924.9 | 2016.5 | 2113.6 | Â | 2150.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 509.7 | Â | 460.2 | 447.8 | 421.2 | 419.6 | Â | 404 | 376.7 | 349.3 | Â | 353.4 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 202.2 | Â | 172 | 158.4 | 117.3 | 164.9 | Â | 115.1 | 67.8 | 56.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | -41.67 | Â | -10.54 | 16.81 | 56.35 | 66.31 | Â | 108.78 | 132.19 | 123.4 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 50.5 | Â | 76.3 | 66 | 100.6 | 116.8 | Â | 153.8 | 205.3 | 186.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 3030 | Â | 3029 | 3077 | 3128 | 3159 | Â | 3162 | 3132 | 3107 | 3092 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 23 | Â | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 | Â | 20 | 19 | 18 | Â | 17 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 6.93 | Â | 6.88 | 6.8 | 6.57 | 6.59 | Â | 6.31 | 6.47 | 6.86 | 6.89 | Â | 6.76 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 4.35 | Â | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | Â | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | Â | 4.35 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 11.8 | Â | 6.71 | 5.09 | 5.28 | 4.17 | Â | 6.27 | 4.84 | 3.88 | Â | -0.4 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 21.35 | Â | 18.75 | 15.01 | 13.98 | 11.76 | Â | 7.11 | 6.61 | 4 | Â | 1.48 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 11.33 | Â | 10.61 | 9.45 | 9.19 | 8.17 | Â | 8.77 | 8.51 | 8.82 | Â | 8.57 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 12.08 | Â | 11.9 | 11.82 | 11.79 | 10.24 | Â | 14.49 | 14.35 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -417.3 | Â | -452.2 | -496 | -463.3 | -463.1 | Â | -451.1 | -442 | -459 | Â | -486.1 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | 4.64 | Â | 7.98 | 7.63 | 5.95 | 3.83 | Â | 9.06 | 7.5 | 5.22 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 3258 | Â | 3334 | 3654 | 4077 | 4272 | Â | 4491 | 4607 | 4721 | Â | 4721 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 29.13 | Â | 29.42 | 31.79 | 34.53 | 34.83 | Â | 35.16 | 34.64 | 34.88 | Â | 34.88 | |
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1416 | Â | 1433 | 1558 | 1675 | 1711 | Â | 1843 | 1871 | 1913 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 11.45 | Â | 13.67 | 13.32 | 13.2 | 12.06 | Â | 14.73 | 13.54 | 14.03 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 3.94 | Â | 4.56 | 4.38 | 3.93 | 4.33 | Â | 4.39 | 4.13 | 3.97 | 3.77 | Â | 3.61 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 117.5 | Â | 82.75 | 69.75 | 62.5 | 50 | Â | 67.5 | 49.81 | 66.5 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| India : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 6.76 | Â | 6.09 | 5.59 | 6.32 | 6.97 | Â | 7.74 | 8.2 | 7.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 2212 | Â | 2276 | 2342 | 2420 | 2509 | Â | 2602 | 2659 | 2675 | 2675 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 9.31 | Â | 4.22 | 6.94 | 6.82 | 5.86 | Â | 6.69 | 8.6 | 7.01 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 12.32 | Â | 22.48 | 17.62 | 3.81 | 6.82 | Â | 16.85 | 7.56 | 12.68 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 8.71 | Â | 5.95 | 0.82 | 6.05 | 9.06 | Â | 14.42 | 10.03 | 12.47 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 3.41 | Â | 3.89 | 1.46 | 3.28 | 5.21 | Â | 4.28 | 4.92 | 3.7 | Â | 2.33 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 4.63 | Â | 4.49 | 3.81 | 4.38 | 5.28 | Â | 5.37 | 6.19 | 5.39 | Â | 5.55 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 4 | Â | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 264.4 | Â | 275.9 | 281.5 | 289.6 | 299.2 | Â | 303.4 | 313.8 | 321.2 | Â | 325.5 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 361.5 | Â | 384.4 | 413.6 | 431.4 | 449.8 | Â | 464.7 | 479.1 | 501.9 | Â | 510.3 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -97.1 | Â | -108.5 | -132.2 | -141.8 | -150.6 | Â | -161.3 | -165.4 | -180.8 | Â | -184.9 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -12.1 | Â | -15.2 | -29.8 | -33.3 | -39 | Â | -48.7 | -49.6 | -61.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 39.44 | Â | 35.66 | 38.95 | 34.29 | 28.95 | Â | 30.21 | 32.81 | 28.07 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4.1 | Â | 8 | 18.7 | 14.4 | 31.1 | Â | 22.2 | 1.3 | -3.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 359 | Â | 370 | 387 | 400 | 409 | Â | 425 | 406 | 401 | 393 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 12 | Â | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | Â | 11 | 10 | 10 | Â | 9 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 67.85 | Â | 65.85 | 64.45 | 64.46 | 64.24 | Â | 65.06 | 67.79 | 72.26 | 70.7 | Â | 70.5 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 6.25 | Â | 6.25 | 6.25 | 6 | 6 | Â | 6 | 6.25 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | -28.87 | Â | -9.63 | -5.06 | -4 | 55.87 | Â | 27.35 | 21.14 | 18.65 | 17 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | -18.86 | Â | 3.05 | 1.34 | 1.57 | 44.71 | Â | 21.83 | 18.07 | 14.57 | 13.59 | Â | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 6.2 | Â | 10.11 | 7 | 5.56 | 10.02 | Â | 9.15 | 9.76 | 9.39 | 10.17 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.12 | Â | 6.78 | 3.85 | 5.13 | 8.52 | Â | 9.29 | 12.62 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -81.3 | Â | -79.5 | -99.2 | -89.9 | -100.9 | Â | -92 | -87.6 | -102.7 | Â | -102.1 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.38 | Â | -0.83 | -11.33 | -1.41 | -2.86 | Â | 0.65 | -9.68 | -3.64 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 1033 | Â | 1053 | 1112 | 1147 | 1178 | Â | 1199 | 1177 | 1135 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 45.5 | Â | 42.39 | 45.97 | 45.42 | 44.25 | Â | 43.01 | 45 | 45.03 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 456 | Â | 471 | 485 | 495 | 513 | Â | 530 | 514 | 510 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 20.61 | Â | 20.71 | 20.73 | 20.46 | 20.45 | Â | 20.36 | 19.34 | 19.08 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 6.51 | Â | 6.67 | 6.51 | 6.66 | 7.32 | Â | 7.4 | 7.9 | 8.02 | 7.37 | Â | 7.59 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Indonesia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 4.94 | Â | 5.01 | 5.01 | 5.06 | 5.19 | Â | 5.06 | 5.27 | 5.17 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 933 | Â | 958 | 980 | 999 | 1015 | Â | 1032 | 1043 | 1042 | 1042 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 5.03 | Â | 5 | 5.02 | 4.95 | 4.98 | Â | 5.01 | 5.22 | 5.08 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -4.03 | Â | 2.69 | -1.92 | 3.48 | 3.81 | Â | 2.71 | 5.21 | 6.28 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 4.79 | Â | 4.77 | 5.34 | 7.08 | 7.27 | Â | 7.95 | 5.86 | 6.96 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 3.02 | Â | 3.61 | 4.37 | 3.72 | 3.61 | Â | 3.4 | 3.12 | 2.88 | 3.13 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 3.07 | Â | 3.3 | 3.13 | 3 | 2.95 | Â | 2.67 | 2.72 | 2.82 | 3.07 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 4 | Â | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 145.2 | Â | 152.2 | 155.1 | 163.5 | 168.8 | Â | 172.4 | 176.8 | 180.5 | Â | 180.7 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 135.7 | Â | 140.3 | 142 | 149.5 | 157 | Â | 164.3 | 173.7 | 183.2 | Â | 188.5 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 9.5 | Â | 11.9 | 13.1 | 14 | 11.8 | Â | 8 | 3.1 | -2.7 | Â | -7.7 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -17 | Â | -14.5 | -13.6 | -13.2 | -17.3 | Â | -20.7 | -24.1 | -28.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 16.14 | Â | 16.07 | 17.27 | 18.09 | 19.29 | Â | 19.79 | 18.15 | 14.69 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 16.8 | Â | 19.7 | 20.2 | 20.3 | 24.3 | Â | 16.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 116 | Â | 122 | 123 | 129 | 130 | Â | 126 | 120 | 115 | 121 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 10 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 9 | 8 | 8 | Â | 7 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 13409.82 | Â | 13343.26 | 13307.05 | 13307.57 | 13559.33 | Â | 13760.73 | 14007.19 | 14869.7 | 14501.67 | Â | 14048 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 6.5 | Â | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Â | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 3.9 | Â | 11.1 | 14.72 | 7.78 | 8.94 | Â | 7.25 | -0.87 | 0.22 | 0.16 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 17.26 | Â | 14.19 | 13.3 | 15.84 | 12.38 | Â | 11.95 | 8.24 | 8.23 | Â | 5.02 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 10.03 | Â | 9.99 | 10.29 | 10.9 | 8.28 | Â | 7.54 | 5.91 | 6.71 | Â | 6.55 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 7.19 | Â | 7.43 | 7.58 | 7.24 | 6.64 | Â | 7.84 | 9.89 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -22.8 | Â | -20.1 | -18.8 | -26.9 | -26 | Â | -24.4 | -20.9 | -19.5 | Â | -19 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.56 | Â | -3.27 | -2.07 | -2.87 | -2.06 | Â | -2.45 | -0.67 | -2.34 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 135 | Â | 145 | 150 | 157 | 159 | Â | 162 | 160 | 159 | 167 | Â | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 30.17 | Â | 31.57 | 31.74 | 32.23 | 32.65 | Â | 32.91 | 31.83 | 32.89 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 320 | Â | 330 | 337 | 345 | 353 | Â | 360 | 356 | 360 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 32.89 | Â | 33.45 | 33.45 | 33.63 | 33.93 | Â | 34.14 | 33.88 | 35.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 7.97 | Â | 7.04 | 6.83 | 6.5 | 6.32 | Â | 6.67 | 7.8 | 8.12 | 8.03 | Â | 7.98 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 163 | Â | 128 | 118 | 104 | 84.5 | Â | 136.5 | 130 | 137.5 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Malaysia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 4.54 | Â | 5.64 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.93 | Â | 5.37 | 4.49 | 4.35 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 297 | Â | 301 | 302 | 306 | 315 | Â | 330 | 342 | 350 | 350 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 6.12 | Â | 6.71 | 7.13 | 7.15 | 6.96 | Â | 6.89 | 7.95 | 9.03 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | -4.25 | Â | 7.48 | 3.3 | 3.93 | 6.83 | Â | 0.43 | 3.14 | 5.19 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 2.37 | Â | 9.96 | 4.08 | 6.69 | 4.28 | Â | 0.06 | 2.21 | 3.2 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.74 | Â | 4.92 | 3.4 | 4.16 | 3.51 | Â | 1.26 | 0.76 | 0.33 | Â | 0.17 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.5 | Â | 2.04 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.31 | Â | 1.21 | -0.17 | 0.26 | Â | 0.26 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 190 | Â | 196.5 | 201.8 | 209.4 | 217.8 | Â | 227.7 | 237.6 | 242.9 | Â | 247 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 168.7 | Â | 176.6 | 180.5 | 186.5 | 194.8 | Â | 200.6 | 209.4 | 214.8 | Â | 217.9 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 21.3 | Â | 19.9 | 21.3 | 22.9 | 23 | Â | 27.1 | 28.1 | 28.1 | Â | 29.1 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.1 | Â | 6.7 | 8 | 9.1 | 9.5 | Â | 12.2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3.36 | Â | 4.57 | 1.29 | 2.71 | 3.79 | Â | 4.45 | 5.95 | 3.88 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 0.7 | Â | -9.9 | -6.3 | -5.9 | 1.2 | Â | 8.5 | -5.5 | -6.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 95 | Â | 95 | 99 | 101 | 102 | Â | 108 | 105 | 103 | 101 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 7 | Â | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | Â | 6 | 6 | 6 | Â | 6 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 4.46 | Â | 4.44 | 4.28 | 4.21 | 4.08 | Â | 3.9 | 4 | 4.14 | 4.17 | Â | 4.09 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | Â | 3.25 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 2.89 | Â | 7.24 | 6.42 | 5.22 | 4.33 | Â | 11.17 | 10 | 7.73 | Â | 7.06 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 5.65 | Â | 9.21 | 9.28 | 11.09 | 11.02 | Â | 7.87 | 4.73 | 4.13 | Â | 3.32 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 3.2 | Â | 4.66 | 4.45 | 5.32 | 4.91 | Â | 6.11 | 6.21 | 6.33 | Â | 7.36 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 6.37 | Â | 7.9 | 8.75 | 7.4 | 6.56 | Â | 7.34 | 7.29 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -9.3 | Â | -9.6 | -9.1 | -8.4 | -9.3 | Â | -7.6 | -9.4 | -10.4 | Â | ||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.17 | Â | -6.23 | -4.17 | 0.23 | -2.01 | Â | -3.3 | -5.59 | -1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 145 | Â | 150 | 160 | 163 | 168 | Â | 181 | 181 | 177 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 49.29 | Â | 51.18 | 51.93 | 50.1 | 48.23 | Â | 51.36 | 51.95 | 50.34 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 205 | Â | 202 | 205 | 208 | 216 | Â | 229 | 234 | 229 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 71.54 | Â | 67.39 | 65.69 | 64.16 | 63.51 | Â | 63.69 | 66.16 | 65.79 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 4.22 | Â | 4.13 | 3.91 | 3.92 | 3.91 | Â | 3.94 | 4.2 | 4.07 | 4.07 | Â | 4.06 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 140 | Â | 106 | 85.5 | 69 | 58 | Â | 107.5 | 83.75 | 109.5 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Thailand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.01 | Â | 3.42 | 3.94 | 4.33 | 3.99 | Â | 4.92 | 4.62 | 3.35 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 412 | Â | 420 | 429 | 441 | 456 | Â | 476 | 492 | 499 | 499 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.29 | Â | 3.12 | 2.88 | 3.36 | 3.44 | Â | 3.67 | 4.54 | 4.98 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.89 | Â | -0.69 | 0.42 | 1.81 | 0.19 | Â | 1.91 | 2.03 | 2.08 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 2.11 | Â | 1.73 | 0.29 | 1.23 | 0.33 | Â | 3.35 | 3.66 | 3.93 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.13 | Â | 0.76 | -0.05 | 0.86 | 0.78 | Â | 0.79 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 0.36 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.74 | Â | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.62 | Â | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.8 | 0.68 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 215.4 | Â | 218 | 223.5 | 230.3 | 236.6 | Â | 243 | 249.1 | 250.9 | Â | 252.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 194.2 | Â | 200.6 | 207.4 | 214.2 | 221.5 | Â | 230.3 | 238 | 246.2 | Â | 251.3 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 21.2 | Â | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.1 | Â | 12.7 | 11 | 4.7 | Â | 1.2 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 48.2 | Â | 46.6 | 45.4 | 48.6 | 50.2 | Â | 50.1 | 49 | 38.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10.59 | Â | 9.24 | 10.16 | 4.64 | 10.63 | Â | 11.22 | 8.59 | 8.76 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.6 | Â | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 9.5 | Â | 6.3 | -0.8 | -1.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 172 | Â | 181 | 186 | 199 | 203 | Â | 216 | 207 | 204 | 206 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 11 | Â | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | Â | 11 | 10 | 10 | Â | 10 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 35.79 | Â | 34.88 | 34 | 33.15 | 32.65 | Â | 31.27 | 32.48 | 32.61 | 32.7 | Â | 31.91 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.75 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 8.46 | Â | 8.21 | 9.5 | 8.38 | 8.83 | Â | 9.72 | 5.66 | 1.58 | 3.21 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 4.84 | Â | 6.97 | 7.38 | 9.76 | 9.37 | Â | 7.61 | 5.32 | 3.72 | Â | 2.63 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 4.22 | Â | 3.33 | 4.37 | 4.82 | 5.01 | Â | 6.16 | 5.12 | 4.81 | Â | 4.72 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 3.74 | Â | 3.92 | 4.33 | 4.14 | 3.87 | Â | 4.55 | 5.13 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -14.3 | Â | -12.7 | -13.4 | -15.1 | -16 | Â | -14.9 | -15.7 | Â | |||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -11.11 | Â | -3.81 | 1.21 | -0.42 | -10.5 | Â | -2.37 | 0.5 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 125 | Â | 136 | 140 | 150 | 154 | Â | 164 | 161 | 167 | Â | 165 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 29.98 | Â | 31.42 | 31.17 | 31.74 | 31.66 | Â | 32.29 | 32.11 | 33.05 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 132 | Â | 137 | 142 | 152 | 155 | Â | 158 | 154 | 158 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 32.48 | Â | 33.46 | 34.42 | 36.35 | 36.69 | Â | 36.62 | 35.12 | 35.29 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.65 | Â | 2.69 | 2.48 | 2.29 | 2.32 | Â | 2.4 | 2.58 | 2.81 | 2.48 | Â | 2.49 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 82.5 | Â | 53 | 63 | 51 | 45.5 | Â | 48.5 | 35.75 | 45 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Taiwan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.79 | Â | 2.94 | 2.5 | 3.36 | 3.48 | Â | 3.15 | 3.29 | 2.27 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 531 | Â | 542 | 553 | 564 | 575 | Â | 586 | 593 | 592 | 592 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.11 | Â | 1.97 | 2.32 | 2.64 | 3.23 | Â | 2.55 | 2.29 | 1.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.49 | Â | -4.46 | 1.43 | 1.61 | -1.23 | Â | 6.63 | 5.87 | -1.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 5.34 | Â | 4.88 | 1.07 | -2.41 | -3.26 | Â | 0.36 | 0.02 | 5.4 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.69 | Â | 0.18 | 1 | 0.49 | 1.22 | Â | 1.59 | 1.4 | 1.72 | -0.05 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.82 | Â | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 1.57 | Â | 1.56 | 1.41 | 1.2 | 0.52 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 1 | Â | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 256.9 | Â | 265.9 | 272.3 | 283.5 | 291.5 | Â | 298.5 | 305.7 | 307.7 | 308.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 229.8 | Â | 240.6 | 247.4 | 254.1 | 258.5 | Â | 265.2 | 272 | 281.2 | 285.9 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 27 | Â | 25.3 | 24.9 | 29.4 | 33 | Â | 33.3 | 33.7 | 26.5 | 22.2 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 72.8 | Â | 71.3 | 71.6 | 76.8 | 82.9 | Â | 84.3 | 83.4 | 75.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 8.69 | Â | 8.29 | 8.42 | 6.09 | 8.26 | Â | 8.34 | 4.58 | 6.68 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.6 | Â | 6.7 | 9.1 | -4.1 | 3.9 | Â | -2.9 | -13.6 | -6.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 434 | Â | 438 | 442 | 447 | 452 | Â | 457 | 457 | 460 | 462 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 23 | Â | 22 | 21 | 21 | 21 | Â | 21 | 20 | 20 | 19 | Â | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 32 | Â | 30.66 | 30.26 | 30.13 | 29.98 | Â | 29.21 | 30.07 | 30.75 | 30.81 | Â | 30.8 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.375 | Â | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | Â | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | Â | 1.375 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 5.92 | Â | 4.63 | 4.22 | 4.77 | 4.84 | Â | 6.31 | 7.25 | 5.81 | Â | 5.6 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 5.79 | Â | 4.4 | 4.87 | 4.55 | 3.48 | Â | 5.3 | 5.42 | 5.45 | Â | 5.43 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 3.55 | Â | 3.59 | 3.57 | 3.58 | 3.56 | Â | 3.45 | 3.76 | 3.33 | Â | 3.22 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.91 | Â | 4.61 | 5.13 | 5.76 | 4.76 | Â | 5.29 | 7.42 | 5.98 | Â | 5.83 | |
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10.2 | Â | 10.9 | 13.6 | 12.7 | 10.9 | Â | 12.2 | 15.7 | 13.9 | Â | 12.7 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -0.81 | Â | 7.81 | 2.55 | -0.24 | -1.93 | Â | 8.01 | 4.84 | -1.48 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 23 | Â | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | Â | 26 | 25 | 24 | Â | 24 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 4.33 | Â | 4.51 | 4.55 | 4.46 | 4.41 | Â | 4.24 | 4.18 | 4.24 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 172 | Â | 182 | 170 | 176 | 182 | Â | 192 | 199 | 203 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 31.41 | Â | 32.55 | 30.05 | 30.33 | 30.73 | Â | 31.85 | 33.32 | 35.19 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 1.2 | Â | 1.1 | 1.08 | 1.03 | 0.96 | Â | 0.96 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 0.82 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Korea : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.56 | Â | 2.87 | 2.81 | 3.78 | 2.79 | Â | 2.79 | 2.82 | 1.96 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1417 | Â | 1446 | 1474 | 1498 | 1533 | Â | 1573 | 1605 | 1617 | 1617 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 1.4 | Â | 2.1 | 2.38 | 2.58 | 3.36 | Â | 3.51 | 2.85 | 2.51 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.53 | Â | 2.38 | 2.82 | 4.3 | 4.13 | Â | 5.81 | 4.83 | 4.58 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 7.85 | Â | 11.04 | 9.96 | 9.2 | 5.03 | Â | 3.67 | -1.28 | -6.58 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.34 | Â | 2.28 | 1.81 | 2 | 1.41 | Â | 1.22 | 1.48 | 2.09 | 1.32 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.24 | Â | 1.46 | 1.35 | 1.58 | 1.39 | Â | 1.28 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.26 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 495.4 | Â | 512.3 | 533.3 | 562.5 | 573.7 | Â | 586.7 | 591.3 | 593.9 | 605.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 406.2 | Â | 428.8 | 447.3 | 465.7 | 478.5 | Â | 494.4 | 509.7 | 519.2 | 535 | Â | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 89.2 | Â | 83.5 | 86 | 96.8 | 95.2 | Â | 92.3 | 81.6 | 74.7 | 70.5 | Â | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 99.2 | Â | 91.5 | 80.9 | 83.9 | 78.5 | Â | 71.1 | 72.5 | 74.9 | Â | 76 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 17.86 | Â | 19.03 | 18 | 20.58 | 14.62 | Â | 9.73 | 14.4 | 18.78 | Â | 22.36 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -3.8 | Â | 15.5 | 21.4 | 10.6 | 17.7 | Â | 12.7 | 12.6 | 28.1 | Â | 17.6 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 371 | Â | 375 | 381 | 385 | 389 | Â | 397 | 400 | 403 | 404 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 11 | Â | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | Â | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1184.35 | Â | 1133.83 | 1131.03 | 1132.99 | 1084.91 | Â | 1071.76 | 1093.87 | 1119.48 | 1122.52 | Â | 1116.4 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.25 | Â | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.75 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 9.13 | Â | 12.66 | 8.71 | 12.13 | 8.68 | Â | 7.36 | 11.39 | 9.94 | Â | 10.55 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 12.29 | Â | 9.77 | 9.77 | 11.74 | 6.83 | Â | 7.27 | 5.61 | 1.93 | Â | 1.96 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.94 | Â | 7.02 | 6.66 | 6.32 | 6.61 | Â | 6.98 | 7.18 | 6.95 | Â | 7.35 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 5.54 | Â | 5.36 | 5.61 | 6.24 | 5.59 | Â | 6.12 | 5.86 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 15.8 | Â | 23.6 | 19.6 | 18.5 | 20.6 | Â | 23 | 20 | 22.6 | Â | 22.7 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | 2.04 | Â | -0.96 | 0.41 | 3.32 | 2.55 | Â | -0.42 | -0.39 | 3.85 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 500 | Â | 538 | 557 | 554 | 578 | Â | 606 | 614 | 592 | Â | 592 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 35.27 | Â | 37.2 | 37.8 | 36.96 | 37.71 | Â | 38.55 | 38.26 | 36.64 | Â | 36.61 | |
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 384 | Â | 408 | 408 | 411 | 419 | Â | 434 | 441 | 450 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 26.74 | Â | 27.62 | 26.87 | 26.31 | 26.59 | Â | 26.42 | 26.77 | 27.97 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.07 | Â | 2.19 | 2.22 | 2.38 | 2.47 | Â | 2.63 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 2.73 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 43.5 | Â | 51 | 53.25 | 74 | 53 | Â | 48.5 | 32.81 | 39 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Philippines : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 6.67 | Â | 6.45 | 6.64 | 7.15 | 6.5 | Â | 6.58 | 6.18 | 6.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 305 | Â | 307 | 308 | 309 | 313 | Â | 318 | 322 | 325 | 325 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 6.66 | Â | 5.87 | 5.96 | 5.37 | 6.22 | Â | 5.7 | 5.93 | 5.16 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 5.03 | Â | 0.15 | 7.6 | 8.33 | 12.19 | Â | 13.55 | 11.91 | 14.26 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 18.96 | Â | 13.75 | 6.98 | 7.78 | 9.35 | Â | 8.81 | 21.2 | 16.49 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 2.23 | Â | 3.07 | 2.49 | 3.04 | 2.91 | Â | 4.34 | 5.23 | 6.7 | 5.13 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.34 | Â | 2.52 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 1.92 | Â | 3.37 | 4.17 | 4.33 | 4.04 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 57.4 | Â | 60.8 | 64.1 | 66.7 | 68.4 | Â | 67.5 | 67.3 | 67.5 | Â | 67.8 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 84.1 | Â | 87.8 | 89.6 | 91.4 | 95.7 | Â | 97.2 | 101.7 | 106.9 | Â | 109.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -26.7 | Â | -27 | -25.5 | -24.7 | -27.2 | Â | -29.7 | -34.4 | -39.4 | Â | -41.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -1.2 | Â | -2.3 | -0.8 | 0.4 | -2.2 | Â | -2.2 | -5.6 | -9.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 5.88 | Â | 5.78 | 5.44 | 5.56 | 6.54 | Â | 6.13 | 7.12 | 7.49 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -0.3 | Â | -2 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.8 | Â | 1.6 | 0.4 | 1.8 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 81 | Â | 81 | 81 | 81 | 82 | Â | 81 | 78 | 75 | 78 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 12 | Â | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | Â | 10 | 9 | 8 | Â | 8 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 49.81 | Â | 50.27 | 49.9 | 50.99 | 50.35 | Â | 52.09 | 53.1 | 53.97 | 52.78 | Â | 52.14 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.75 | Â | 4.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 11.78 | Â | 15.81 | 20.95 | 15 | 13.74 | Â | 11.37 | 5.86 | 4.79 | Â | 7.78 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 15.06 | Â | 14.78 | 15.99 | 16.67 | 15.68 | Â | 17.76 | 15.24 | 11.4 | Â | 9.46 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 12.76 | Â | 11.74 | 13.41 | 14.82 | 11.89 | Â | 14.4 | 11.81 | 9.76 | Â | 8.39 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 17.33 | Â | 20.17 | 19.01 | 21.08 | 19.41 | Â | 18.52 | 19.11 | 17.6 | Â | 16.76 | |
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -7.3 | Â | -6.6 | -7.9 | -7.1 | -7 | Â | -8.2 | -7.6 | -9.9 | Â | -11.1 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -3.4 | Â | -2.32 | -1.81 | -1.53 | -3.08 | Â | -3.89 | -0.94 | -4.39 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 122 | Â | 123 | 129 | 126 | 132 | Â | 132 | 132 | 133 | Â | 136 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 37 | Â | 43.34 | 40.65 | 42.19 | 37.2 | Â | 43.93 | 40.46 | 42.39 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 75 | Â | 74 | 72 | 72 | 73 | Â | 73 | 72 | 76 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 24.53 | Â | 24.17 | 23.14 | 23 | 22.86 | Â | 22.51 | 22.07 | 23.16 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 4.64 | Â | 4.63 | 4.65 | 4.61 | 4.93 | Â | 6.05 | 6.46 | 6.49 | 7.01 | Â | 6.53 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | 111.5 | Â | 82 | 77 | 66 | 58 | Â | 91 | 69.25 | 87.5 | Â | ||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| HK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.35 | Â | 4.37 | 3.91 | 3.6 | 3.35 | Â | 4.59 | 3.54 | 2.87 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 321 | Â | 326 | 332 | 337 | 341 | Â | 348 | 353 | 359 | 359 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 4.09 | Â | 3.66 | 5.81 | 6.31 | 6.31 | Â | 8.79 | 6.01 | 5.18 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.16 | Â | 2.83 | 2.98 | 4.46 | 3.21 | Â | 3.85 | 4.33 | 3.26 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 5.98 | Â | 5.75 | 7.59 | -2.07 | 3.1 | Â | 4.2 | 1.15 | 8.21 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.17 | Â | 0.48 | 1.96 | 1.45 | 1.73 | Â | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.68 | Â | 2.57 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.39 | Â | 0.19 | 1.76 | 1.17 | 1.55 | Â | 2.13 | 1.83 | 2.21 | Â | 2.3 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 462.6 | Â | 473.1 | 481 | 489.8 | 497.6 | Â | 507.4 | 517.1 | 528.4 | Â | 534 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 517 | Â | 529.2 | 539 | 548.3 | 559.5 | Â | 571.6 | 584.6 | 600.6 | Â | 606.8 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -54.4 | Â | -56.1 | -58 | -58.6 | -61.9 | Â | -64.2 | -67.5 | -72.1 | Â | -72.8 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 12.7 | Â | 11.9 | 13.1 | 15.6 | 15.3 | Â | 14.9 | 14.2 | 12.7 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 57.71 | Â | 58.02 | 47.65 | 24.97 | 23.95 | Â | 16.7 | 26.11 | 38.53 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 7.8 | Â | 23.2 | 31.4 | 33.1 | 41 | Â | 26.2 | 16.1 | 14.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 386 | Â | 396 | 408 | 419 | 431 | Â | 440 | 432 | 426 | Â | 423 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 9 | Â | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | Â | 9 | 9 | 9 | Â | 8 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 7.76 | Â | 7.77 | 7.8 | 7.81 | 7.81 | Â | 7.84 | 7.85 | 7.84 | 7.82 | Â | 7.84 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1 | Â | 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.75 | Â | 2 | 2.25 | 2.5 | 2.75 | Â | 2.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 2.72 | Â | 2.9 | 3.43 | 3.39 | 3.13 | Â | 4.75 | -1.16 | -3.73 | -3.22 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 12.32 | Â | 7.33 | 10 | 7.12 | 9.82 | Â | 10.98 | 9.61 | 2.17 | Â | -0.33 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.69 | Â | 10.14 | 12.96 | 8.86 | 9.98 | Â | 7.78 | 5.02 | 4.74 | Â | 3.46 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 6.95 | Â | 10.8 | 15.92 | 16.68 | 15.98 | Â | 14.77 | 9.05 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 6.5 | Â | 7.1 | 8 | 7.2 | 5.8 | Â | 8.3 | 7.2 | 1.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1356 | Â | 1441 | 1515 | 1525 | 1576 | Â | 1629 | 1664 | 1655 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 412.63 | Â | 430.14 | 445.44 | 445.73 | 453.96 | Â | 450.88 | 457.54 | 454.63 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 1.97 | Â | 1.67 | 1.49 | 1.71 | 1.83 | Â | 1.99 | 2.25 | 2.47 | 2.01 | Â | 2.01 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Singapore : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.72 | Â | 2.53 | 2.79 | 5.51 | 3.62 | Â | 4.5 | 4.09 | 2.3 | 2.2 | Â | |
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 310 | Â | 313 | 314 | 318 | 324 | Â | 333 | 341 | 344 | 344 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 0.15 | Â | -0.92 | 2.65 | 5.34 | 5.46 | Â | 3.22 | 3.67 | 3.44 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 4.54 | Â | 4.04 | 5.27 | 7.14 | 0.45 | Â | 8.38 | 2.49 | 2.63 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -4.07 | Â | -3.17 | -3.54 | -2.68 | 2.23 | Â | -0.93 | 3.07 | -1.36 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 0.16 | Â | 0.66 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.38 | Â | 0.24 | 0.56 | 0.72 | Â | 0.29 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.23 | Â | 1.2 | 1.54 | 1.46 | 1.32 | Â | 1.52 | 1.69 | 1.84 | Â | 1.68 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 338.2 | Â | 350.4 | 355.2 | 363.4 | 373.4 | Â | 382 | 394.8 | 406.3 | Â | 413.9 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 292 | Â | 301.8 | 307.8 | 317 | 327.8 | Â | 335.8 | 348.4 | 361.8 | Â | 369.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 46.2 | Â | 48.6 | 47.4 | 46.4 | 45.6 | Â | 46.2 | 46.5 | 44.5 | Â | 44.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 59.1 | Â | 62.6 | 60.7 | 61 | 61 | Â | 62.4 | 64.9 | 63.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 46.49 | Â | 52.23 | 43.17 | 39.78 | 39.06 | Â | 31.17 | 30.59 | 38.86 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 5 | Â | 7.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 13.2 | Â | 6.8 | 2.7 | -0.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 247 | Â | 260 | 266 | 275 | 280 | Â | 287 | 288 | 291 | 288 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 10 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 9 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1.44 | Â | 1.4 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.35 | Â | 1.31 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.37 | Â | 1.35 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.723 | Â | 0.753 | 0.817 | 1.001 | 1.325 | Â | 1.31 | 1.402 | 1.517 | 1.763 | Â | 1.764 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 13.17 | Â | 12.63 | 15.38 | 13.33 | 9.9 | Â | 12.1 | 10.15 | 8.21 | Â | 7.11 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 7.67 | Â | 8.9 | 10.78 | 9.22 | 6.34 | Â | 8.17 | 4.45 | 1.24 | Â | 0.43 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.69 | Â | 7.19 | 6.97 | 5.28 | 3.18 | Â | 2.81 | 2.73 | 3.46 | Â | 3.51 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 3.55 | Â | 3.76 | 5.28 | 4.32 | 7.32 | Â | 7.21 | 2.56 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -3.3 | Â | -1.3 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.9 | Â | 1.5 | 3.5 | 2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 322 | Â | 341 | 349 | 367 | 373 | Â | 393 | 391 | 391 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 104.02 | Â | 108.83 | 111.14 | 115.7 | 115.03 | Â | 117.95 | 114.71 | 113.45 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1326 | Â | 1347 | 1349 | 1395 | 1447 | Â | 1496 | 1487 | 1450 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 434.9 | Â | 427.18 | 421.03 | 421.92 | 421.86 | Â | 427.16 | 435.29 | 422.64 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.46 | Â | 2.23 | 2.08 | 2.14 | 2 | Â | 2.29 | 2.52 | 2.49 | 2.03 | Â | 2.17 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Australia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.74 | Â | 2.19 | 2.14 | 2.82 | 2.38 | Â | 3.01 | 3.12 | 2.77 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1269 | Â | 1308 | 1331 | 1366 | 1387 | Â | 1412 | 1432 | 1423 | 1423 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.6 | Â | 2.04 | 2.38 | 2.48 | 2.85 | Â | 2.8 | 2.88 | 2.54 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 4.97 | Â | 5.22 | 3.98 | 2.27 | 4.41 | Â | 4.13 | 3.86 | 4.77 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 0.28 | Â | 0.43 | 1.79 | 6.76 | 3.31 | Â | 4.25 | 3.54 | 1.32 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.48 | Â | 2.13 | 1.93 | 1.83 | 1.91 | Â | 1.9 | 2.08 | 1.89 | Â | ||
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.28 | Â | 1.46 | 1.55 | 1.9 | 1.9 | Â | 1.98 | 1.79 | 1.24 | Â | ||
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 192.5 | Â | 208.5 | 219.3 | 230.2 | 231.1 | Â | 236.1 | 243.6 | 248.9 | Â | 254.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 189.3 | Â | 193.3 | 199.1 | 214.7 | 221.4 | Â | 228.9 | 233.5 | 224.8 | Â | 228.7 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 3.2 | Â | 15.1 | 20.2 | 15.6 | 9.8 | Â | 7.1 | 10.2 | 24.1 | Â | 25.6 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -41.2 | Â | -34.4 | -29.4 | -28.3 | -36 | Â | -38.9 | -39.7 | -36.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 39.35 | Â | 37.18 | 41.63 | 49.9 | 45.27 | Â | 48.12 | 60.56 | 54.99 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 6.1 | Â | 19.6 | 33.3 | 52.8 | 66.7 | Â | 91 | 93.8 | 63.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 51 | Â | 55 | 59 | 53 | 64 | Â | 56 | 53 | 51 | 51 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 3 | Â | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 2 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1.36 | Â | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.26 | 1.31 | Â | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.39 | 1.4 | Â | 1.39 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 2.92 | Â | 5.84 | 5.9 | 6.97 | 6.48 | Â | 3.28 | 3.65 | 3.31 | Â | 4.23 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 6.53 | Â | 6.86 | 7.33 | 6.56 | 5.37 | Â | 3.24 | 0.21 | 0.86 | Â | -0.88 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 6.67 | Â | 6.74 | 7.81 | 6.8 | 4.47 | Â | 3.73 | 1.88 | 2.16 | Â | 1.92 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.03 | Â | 2.93 | 2.92 | 2.85 | 2.97 | Â | 4.27 | 3.52 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -26.1 | Â | -25.4 | -27.6 | -22.1 | -18.1 | Â | -14.2 | -3.6 | 2 | Â | 6 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.1 | Â | -1.55 | -0.07 | -3.68 | 0.1 | Â | -0.26 | 2.82 | -2.18 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 525 | Â | 563 | 572 | 607 | 599 | Â | 618 | 602 | 583 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 40.62 | Â | 41.05 | 42.14 | 42.1 | 42.86 | Â | 42.66 | 42.62 | 42.51 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1419 | Â | 1440 | 1450 | 1525 | 1502 | Â | 1563 | 1531 | 1463 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 109.9 | Â | 105.02 | 106.84 | 105.71 | 107.45 | Â | 107.93 | 108.36 | 106.63 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.77 | Â | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.84 | 2.63 | Â | 2.6 | 2.63 | 2.67 | 2.32 | Â | 2.31 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | 25.25 | 22 | 23 | 16 | Â | 18 | 14.75 | 24.5 | Â | |||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Canada : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.81 | Â | 2.23 | 3.81 | 3.03 | 2.87 | Â | 2.27 | 1.9 | 2.06 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 1528 | Â | 1563 | 1571 | 1608 | 1649 | Â | 1683 | 1717 | 1718 | 1718 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.22 | Â | 3.02 | 3.82 | 3.93 | 3.71 | Â | 3.01 | 2.43 | 1.85 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.25 | Â | 2.11 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 2.76 | Â | 2.94 | 2.96 | 2.95 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | -3.49 | Â | 0.51 | 1.83 | 2.69 | 6.85 | Â | 5.11 | 4.3 | 1.74 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.5 | Â | 1.56 | 1.01 | 1.55 | 1.87 | Â | 2.31 | 2.45 | 2.22 | Â | 1.68 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.81 | Â | 1.71 | 1.37 | 1.21 | 1.7 | Â | 1.92 | 1.75 | 1.83 | Â | 1.74 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 393.5 | Â | 403.8 | 413.2 | 417.5 | 423.4 | Â | 428.7 | 438.2 | 449.2 | Â | 452.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 412.9 | Â | 419.5 | 425 | 430.9 | 442.6 | Â | 452.8 | 462.3 | 467.3 | Â | 469.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -19.4 | Â | -15.7 | -11.7 | -13.4 | -19.2 | Â | -24.1 | -24 | -18.1 | Â | -17 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -49.1 | Â | -45.6 | -41 | -41.5 | -46.4 | Â | -50.4 | -52.4 | -46.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 34.32 | Â | 35.22 | 25.07 | 29.19 | 27.9 | Â | 32.39 | 38.26 | 34.56 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 129.6 | Â | 135.7 | 126.1 | 137.7 | 146.6 | Â | 120.9 | 114.1 | 91.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 83 | Â | 83 | 85 | 84 | 87 | Â | 83 | 82 | 81 | Â | 82 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | 2 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1.34 | Â | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.23 | 1.28 | Â | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Â | 1.33 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.5 | Â | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | Â | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 5.85 | Â | 5.37 | 6.75 | 6.59 | 5.94 | Â | 5.86 | 4.14 | 6.63 | Â | 4.79 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 9.65 | Â | 10.1 | 11.61 | 8.36 | 7.58 | Â | 6.59 | 4.18 | 4.71 | Â | 4.75 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.6 | Â | 7.77 | 6.31 | 4.4 | 4.61 | Â | 4.47 | 4.39 | 5.52 | Â | 5.49 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.09 | Â | 6.04 | 5.89 | 5.47 | 6.59 | Â | 5.49 | 5.11 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -14.7 | Â | -16.4 | -15.6 | -15.3 | -12.8 | Â | -12.8 | -9.5 | -7 | Â | -7.5 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.37 | Â | -1.18 | -0.53 | -0.75 | -0.72 | Â | -0.84 | 0.08 | -0.15 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 1330 | Â | 1336 | 1374 | 1455 | 1411 | Â | 1390 | 1384 | 1389 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 86.01 | Â | 84.88 | 85.79 | 83.57 | 82.82 | Â | 82.03 | 82.04 | 80.75 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1774 | Â | 1779 | 1798 | 1920 | 1941 | Â | 1940 | 1940 | 1957 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 114.68 | Â | 113.03 | 112.31 | 110.24 | 113.88 | Â | 114.52 | 114.98 | 113.78 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 1.72 | Â | 1.62 | 1.76 | 2.1 | 2.04 | Â | 2.09 | 2.17 | 2.42 | 1.96 | Â | 1.96 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Switzerland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.15 | Â | 0.96 | 1.37 | 1.74 | 2.64 | Â | 3.18 | 3.18 | 2.15 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 670 | Â | 671 | 669 | 673 | 679 | Â | 693 | 701 | 703 | 703 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 1.85 | Â | 1.38 | 1.15 | 1.36 | 0.74 | Â | 1.06 | 1.15 | 0.71 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 1.17 | Â | 0.68 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 1.34 | Â | 1.41 | 1.4 | 0.79 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 3.14 | Â | 3.21 | 2.32 | 3.59 | 4.24 | Â | 3.32 | 3.6 | 1.21 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | -0.01 | Â | 0.57 | 0.2 | 0.65 | 0.84 | Â | 0.8 | 1.15 | 0.99 | 0.69 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | -0.32 | Â | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.51 | 0.71 | Â | 0.58 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.31 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 1.5 | Â | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 213.8 | Â | 216.8 | 217.1 | 219 | 224.1 | Â | 230 | 235.4 | 235.4 | Â | 238.6 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 176.3 | Â | 177.8 | 179.4 | 182.6 | 188.8 | Â | 198.2 | 204.2 | 206.4 | Â | 206.2 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 37.5 | Â | 39 | 37.7 | 36.4 | 35.3 | Â | 31.8 | 31.2 | 29 | Â | 32.4 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 63.3 | Â | 64.5 | 62.5 | 54.5 | 45.4 | Â | 57.3 | 63.5 | 70.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 27.98 | Â | 6.44 | -50.05 | -56.31 | -74.51 | Â | -21.84 | 51.59 | 60.88 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -20.5 | Â | -15.7 | -44.7 | -44.4 | -36.4 | Â | -40.4 | -13.5 | -18.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 641 | Â | 689 | 731 | 752 | 768 | Â | 778 | 759 | 763 | Â | 755 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 44 | Â | 46 | 49 | 49 | 49 | Â | 47 | 45 | 44 | Â | 44 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1.02 | Â | 1 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.99 | Â | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.99 | Â | 0.98 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | -0.75 | Â | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | Â | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | Â | -0.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 13.04 | Â | 12.19 | 13.69 | 6.42 | 3.99 | Â | -0.37 | -2.84 | 0.58 | Â | 0.08 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 6.05 | Â | 5.31 | 6.66 | 6.79 | 7.16 | Â | 6.98 | 5.05 | 4.83 | Â | 5.04 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 3.01 | Â | 3.02 | 4.01 | 4.27 | 3.53 | Â | 3.24 | 2.29 | 2.29 | Â | 2.83 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.76 | Â | 4.12 | 3.72 | 4.1 | 5.35 | Â | 5.49 | 5.57 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 0.4 | Â | 2.7 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 4.4 | Â | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.3 | Â | 3.9 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -6.9 | Â | 5.28 | 5.02 | 1.02 | -8.26 | Â | 5.08 | 6.06 | -0.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 97 | Â | 110 | 106 | 101 | 107 | Â | 111 | 107 | 103 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 14.95 | Â | 16.66 | 15.47 | 14.58 | 15.55 | Â | 15.44 | 15.39 | 14.38 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 1746 | Â | 1773 | 1852 | 1885 | 1898 | Â | 2007 | 1921 | 1902 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 269.46 | Â | 268.12 | 269.49 | 270.87 | 276.84 | Â | 278.17 | 275.21 | 266.13 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | -0.19 | Â | -0.09 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.15 | Â | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.04 | -0.25 | Â | -0.15 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Eurozone : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 2.09 | Â | 2.06 | 2.46 | 2.79 | 2.7 | Â | 2.4 | 2.15 | 1.62 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 11981 | Â | 11979 | 11987 | 12268 | 12670 | Â | 13230 | 13611 | 13678 | 13678 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 1.85 | Â | 1.61 | 1.85 | 1.97 | 1.57 | Â | 1.69 | 1.38 | 1.03 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 1.62 | Â | 1 | 1.12 | 1.35 | 1.2 | Â | 0.97 | 1.07 | 0.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 4.22 | Â | 2.67 | 3.57 | 2.85 | 2.52 | Â | 3.42 | 2.91 | 3.73 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.14 | Â | 1.54 | 1.26 | 1.53 | 1.35 | Â | 1.34 | 1.96 | 2.07 | 1.58 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.9 | Â | 0.7 | 1.14 | 1.11 | 0.94 | Â | 1.03 | 0.95 | 0.91 | Â | 0.97 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2267.9 | Â | 2308.5 | 2323.7 | 2389.3 | 2481.7 | Â | 2583.9 | 2661.8 | 2683.8 | Â | 2703.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1972.8 | Â | 2021.9 | 2057.5 | 2124 | 2214.6 | Â | 2309.6 | 2388 | 2436.6 | Â | 2461 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 295 | Â | 286.6 | 266.2 | 265.3 | 267 | Â | 274.3 | 273.7 | 247.2 | Â | 242.4 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 383 | Â | 383.1 | 355.4 | 386.4 | 417.2 | Â | 449 | 482.8 | 447.1 | Â | 432.1 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 381.34 | Â | 514.02 | 398.87 | 210.31 | 133.42 | Â | -271.2 | -282.95 | -62.63 | Â | -100.93 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -98.4 | Â | 7.6 | 217.8 | 303.6 | 416.3 | Â | 545.2 | 299.4 | 238.2 | Â | 250 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 344 | Â | 346 | 348 | 351 | 353 | Â | 370 | 371 | 370 | Â | 372 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | 2 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 0.95 | Â | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.84 | Â | 0.81 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.88 | Â | 0.87 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0 | Â | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Â | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Â | 0 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 37.3 | Â | 37.86 | 44.25 | 36.2 | 32.65 | Â | 23.49 | 9.84 | 7.18 | 2.51 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 8.48 | Â | 8.74 | 8.9 | 9.11 | 8.24 | Â | 7.27 | 7.6 | 6.98 | Â | 6.93 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 5.11 | Â | 5.37 | 4.75 | 4.91 | 4.2 | Â | 3.24 | 4.39 | 3.6 | Â | 3.9 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 2.7 | Â | 2.66 | 1.5 | 1.19 | 1.41 | Â | 1.21 | 2.06 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -206.4 | Â | -167.8 | -167.8 | -167.8 | -167.8 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -1.7 | Â | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.3 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 8610 | Â | 8840 | 9392 | 9970 | 9836 | Â | 10377 | 9871 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 75.5 | Â | 75.8 | 76 | 75.4 | 74.2 | Â | 74.4 | 74.2 | Â | |||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 14932 | Â | 15630 | 15960 | 16826 | 16442 | Â | 17436 | 16772 | 16848 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 129.56 | Â | 132.54 | 127.24 | 125.35 | 122.1 | Â | 123.33 | 124.33 | 124.38 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 0.2 | Â | 0.32 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.42 | Â | 0.49 | 0.3 | 0.47 | 0.24 | Â | |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| UK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.7 | Â | 1.81 | 1.91 | 1.96 | 1.61 | Â | 1.25 | 1.41 | 1.5 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 2666 | Â | 2598 | 2548 | 2573 | 2643 | Â | 2743 | 2806 | 2825 | 2825 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 3.14 | Â | 2.78 | 2.34 | 1.65 | 1.99 | Â | 1.6 | 1.76 | 1.79 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 0.37 | Â | -0.67 | -0.09 | 0 | -0.01 | Â | 0.76 | -0.01 | -0.37 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 2.45 | Â | 3.5 | 3.84 | 2.62 | 3.9 | Â | 2.23 | -0.53 | -0.31 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.56 | Â | 2.32 | 2.64 | 2.96 | 2.97 | Â | 2.46 | 2.45 | 2.42 | Â | 2.31 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.62 | Â | 1.81 | 2.42 | 2.65 | 2.5 | Â | 2.26 | 1.92 | 1.89 | Â | 1.84 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 404.2 | Â | 406.4 | 408.1 | 423.7 | 436.8 | Â | 453.7 | 463 | 466 | Â | 468.4 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 583.3 | Â | 583.5 | 585.5 | 594.8 | 613.5 | Â | 632.8 | 645.2 | 649.5 | Â | 652.4 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -41.8 | Â | -40.5 | -40.5 | -29.5 | -30.7 | Â | -29.5 | -30.1 | -34.6 | Â | -38.1 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -140.2 | Â | -119.5 | -110 | -90.2 | -88 | Â | -94.4 | -95.6 | -108.4 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 265.55 | Â | 214.36 | 200.47 | 205.66 | 122.25 | Â | 101.07 | 122.24 | 79.77 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -29.3 | Â | 102.9 | 81.1 | 107.8 | 236.2 | Â | 202.5 | 227.2 | 226.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 124 | Â | 129 | 135 | 137 | 138 | Â | 144 | 143 | 142 | Â | 155 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | 3 | 3 | Â | 3 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 0.8 | Â | 0.81 | 0.78 | 0.75 | 0.75 | Â | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.79 | Â | 0.78 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | Â | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.5 | Â | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75 | Â | 0.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 17.97 | Â | 27.24 | 32.6 | 30.78 | 21.08 | Â | 12.55 | 9.29 | 8.98 | 4.48 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 11.07 | Â | 8.43 | 4.97 | 5.78 | 4.89 | Â | 3.11 | 4.39 | 3.52 | Â | 4.59 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 9.87 | Â | 10.69 | 7.59 | 6.97 | 6.19 | Â | 2.89 | 3.45 | 2.31 | Â | 2.95 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 7.23 | Â | 5.81 | 4.13 | 3.19 | 3.85 | Â | 5.37 | 4.97 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -64.6 | Â | -48.1 | -43.5 | -35.5 | -31.6 | Â | -36.8 | -29.2 | -25.2 | Â | -22.5 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.11 | Â | 6.01 | -1.85 | 0.59 | -1.03 | Â | 4.92 | -0.93 | 0.98 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 2133 | Â | 2098 | 2195 | 2293 | 2365 | Â | 2434 | 2359 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 85.38 | Â | 83.81 | 84.17 | 83.74 | 84.93 | Â | 83.36 | 84.18 | Â | |||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 7594 | Â | 7723 | 7979 | 8403 | 8578 | Â | 8918 | 8458 | 8226 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 303.9 | Â | 308.46 | 305.97 | 306.85 | 307.99 | Â | 305.41 | 301.79 | 295.58 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 1.24 | Â | 1.14 | 1.26 | 1.36 | 1.19 | Â | 1.35 | 1.28 | 1.57 | 1.28 | Â | 1.29 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | 24 | 30 | Â | 29.5 | |||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Japan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.23 | Â | 1.45 | 1.76 | 2.14 | 2.35 | Â | 1.18 | 1.43 | 0.01 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 4935 | Â | 4960 | 4942 | 4870 | 4861 | Â | 4940 | 4979 | 4970 | 4970 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 0.34 | Â | 0.49 | 2.03 | 0.7 | 1.19 | Â | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.69 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 0.46 | Â | -0.33 | 0.47 | 0.35 | 0.53 | Â | 0.44 | 0.63 | 0.62 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 0.56 | Â | 2.1 | 3.36 | 3.52 | 3.15 | Â | 2.01 | 1.99 | -0.63 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 0.3 | Â | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | Â | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.19 | Â | 0.89 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 0.1 | Â | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | Â | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | Â | 0.3 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 645.1 | Â | 660.3 | 671.8 | 682 | 698.3 | Â | 715.3 | 731.2 | 735.5 | Â | 740.3 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 607.7 | Â | 623.2 | 641.7 | 650.9 | 672.1 | Â | 693 | 708.3 | 728.1 | Â | 746.8 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 37.3 | Â | 37.1 | 30 | 31.1 | 26.2 | Â | 22.3 | 22.9 | 7.4 | Â | -6.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 194.8 | Â | 195 | 191.2 | 195 | 196.2 | Â | 197.7 | 202 | 190.1 | Â | 177.1 | |
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 134.39 | Â | 157.62 | 172.09 | 153.42 | 149.75 | Â | 129.36 | 129.55 | 131.33 | Â | 145.4 | |
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 29 | Â | 97.3 | 122.3 | 142.7 | 153.3 | Â | 88.1 | 110.3 | 73.1 | Â | 102.6 | |
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 1188 | Â | 1200 | 1219 | 1235 | 1232 | Â | 1236 | 1228 | 1230 | 1239 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 23 | Â | 23 | 23 | 23 | 22 | Â | 21 | 21 | 20 | Â | 20 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 116.12 | Â | 112.91 | 110.97 | 110.81 | 112.93 | Â | 106.1 | 110.14 | 112.05 | 112.16 | Â | 108.48 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | -0.1 | Â | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | Â | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | Â | -0.1 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 23.33 | Â | 20.21 | 17.18 | 15.38 | 11.4 | Â | 9.03 | 7.39 | 5.82 | 4.9 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 9.08 | Â | 8.72 | 7.65 | 7.65 | 6.79 | Â | 6.22 | 6.5 | 6.19 | Â | 5.5 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 3.35 | Â | 3.54 | 3.33 | 3.42 | 3.06 | Â | 2.62 | 2.66 | 2.46 | Â | 2.09 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 2.65 | Â | 2.79 | 2.64 | 2.5 | 2.25 | Â | 1.72 | 2.66 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -21.1 | Â | -27.2 | -22.6 | -22.1 | -5.2 | Â | -4.6 | -1.6 | 4.8 | 19 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -0.37 | Â | -1 | -1.36 | 1.15 | 0.79 | Â | -0.79 | -1.05 | 1.68 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 9184 | Â | 9490 | 9723 | 9751 | 9614 | Â | 10253 | 9888 | 9744 | Â | 9767 | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 198.53 | Â | 198.82 | 198.74 | 197.07 | 197.14 | Â | 198.62 | 197.8 | 199.69 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 3440 | Â | 3439 | 3532 | 3702 | 3599 | Â | 3902 | 3878 | 3985 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 74.37 | Â | 72.06 | 72.2 | 74.82 | 73.81 | Â | 75.58 | 77.58 | 81.67 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 0.04 | Â | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.04 | Â | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0 | Â | 0.01 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | 40.5 | Â | 24.5 | 21 | Â | 24.5 | ||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Norway : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.87 | Â | 1.35 | 2.45 | 3.79 | 1.97 | Â | 1.86 | 1.51 | 1.56 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 372 | Â | 383 | 382 | 392 | 400 | Â | 410 | 425 | 430 | 430 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 1.28 | Â | 1.81 | 2.51 | 3.13 | 2.68 | Â | 1.99 | 2.69 | 1.62 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.29 | Â | 2.49 | 2.17 | 2.22 | 3.11 | Â | 2.54 | 2.28 | 1.93 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 9.06 | Â | 7.87 | 4.27 | 0.4 | 2.22 | Â | -4.87 | 1.2 | 2.41 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 3.47 | Â | 2.44 | 1.93 | 1.63 | 1.63 | Â | 2.19 | 2.55 | 3.4 | 3.49 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.47 | Â | 1.66 | 1.64 | 0.96 | 1.35 | Â | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.91 | 2.1 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 89.5 | Â | 95 | 97.2 | 101 | 104.1 | Â | 107.4 | 113.6 | 119 | Â | 122.5 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 75 | Â | 77.1 | 78.5 | 78.2 | 82.9 | Â | 86 | 89.3 | 89.8 | Â | 87.6 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 14.5 | Â | 17.9 | 18.7 | 22.8 | 21.2 | Â | 21.5 | 24.3 | 29.2 | Â | 34.9 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 14.8 | Â | 17.1 | 21.5 | 23.5 | 22.4 | Â | 24.2 | 27.1 | 34.1 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | -17.54 | Â | -26.82 | -24.28 | -20.72 | 6.04 | Â | -8.12 | -12.43 | -12.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 5.5 | Â | 1.6 | -0.6 | -3.2 | 1.6 | Â | -1.4 | 8.3 | 10 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 60 | Â | 61 | 65 | 65 | 66 | Â | 67 | 66 | 65 | Â | 62 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 10 | Â | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | Â | 9 | 9 | 9 | Â | 9 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 8.57 | Â | 8.51 | 8.46 | 7.84 | 8.32 | Â | 7.77 | 8.12 | 8.25 | 8.64 | Â | 8.54 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.5 | Â | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | Â | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75 | Â | |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | -7.34 | Â | 3.43 | 55.44 | 30.81 | 7.52 | Â | 10.42 | -26.19 | -33.85 | Â | -9.38 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 4.29 | Â | 5.69 | 4.6 | 4.22 | 5.54 | Â | 8.86 | 9.82 | 8.88 | Â | 7.87 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 5.02 | Â | 7.25 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.06 | Â | 5.47 | 6.33 | 5.38 | Â | 4.91 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 2.18 | Â | 2.77 | 3.41 | 2.73 | 2.5 | Â | 2.37 | 1.48 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -10 | Â | -13.2 | -14.2 | -12.6 | -6.6 | Â | -4.7 | -2.7 | 1.5 | Â | 2.1 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -7.37 | Â | -3.09 | -1.62 | -0.73 | -1.16 | Â | -1.19 | 0.35 | 3.46 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 60 | Â | 74 | 59 | 76 | 63 | Â | 82 | 77 | 75 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 16.13 | Â | 19.19 | 15.34 | 18.06 | 15.5 | Â | 18.51 | 17.82 | 16.96 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 616 | Â | 640 | 634 | 678 | 644 | Â | 672 | 644 | 635 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 165.05 | Â | 166.5 | 163.83 | 160.78 | 158.91 | Â | 152.42 | 148.05 | 144.44 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 1.63 | Â | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Â | 1.84 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | 8.5 | 9.5 | Â | 10 | |||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| New Zealand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 3.45 | Â | 3.08 | 3.06 | 3.03 | 3.37 | Â | 3.04 | 3.15 | 2.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 185 | Â | 191 | 195 | 198 | 200 | Â | 203 | 206 | 203 | 203 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 5.53 | Â | 6.11 | 4.74 | 4.08 | 4.17 | Â | 3.15 | 3.12 | 3.25 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 3.12 | Â | 2.64 | 2.66 | 3.77 | 2.56 | Â | 2.3 | 3.7 | 0.46 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 4.27 | Â | 2.21 | 1.71 | 3.47 | 6.31 | Â | 7.22 | 5.58 | 2.26 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.33 | Â | 2.15 | 1.73 | 1.93 | 1.62 | Â | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.89 | Â | ||
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.53 | Â | 2.35 | 1.73 | 1.62 | 1.41 | Â | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.29 | Â | ||
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 33.8 | Â | 34.5 | 35.5 | 36.5 | 38.1 | Â | 39 | 39.6 | 39.8 | Â | 40 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 36.1 | Â | 37.2 | 38.2 | 38.7 | 40.1 | Â | 41.5 | 42.6 | 43.4 | Â | 43.6 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2.3 | Â | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.1 | -2 | Â | -2.5 | -3 | -3.6 | Â | -3.6 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -4.2 | Â | -5 | -5.1 | -5.3 | -5.9 | Â | -6.1 | -6.8 | -7.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2.11 | Â | 1.32 | 2.66 | 1.96 | 2.16 | Â | 1.69 | -0.3 | 0.81 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 12.2 | Â | 10.1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | Â | 3.9 | 6.4 | 1.6 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 18 | Â | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | Â | 22 | 22 | 20 | 18 | Â | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 6 | Â | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | Â | 6 | 6 | 6 | Â | 5 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1.42 | Â | 1.43 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.44 | Â | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 1.47 | Â | 1.46 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | Â | 1.75 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 4.04 | Â | 2.34 | 4.91 | 7.16 | 8.85 | Â | 10.51 | 8.48 | 9.67 | Â | 7.41 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 9.58 | Â | 6.9 | 7.54 | 9.32 | 8.72 | Â | 12.06 | 11.47 | 10.14 | Â | 8.17 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.66 | Â | 6.35 | 6.28 | 6.97 | 7.3 | Â | 7.23 | 7.11 | 7.65 | Â | 6.41 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 6.44 | Â | 6.48 | 5.79 | 4.87 | 4.06 | Â | 4.14 | 4.58 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1.2 | Â | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | Â | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Â | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | 0.68 | Â | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.43 | Â | Â | |||||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 57 | Â | 57 | 59 | 60 | 55 | Â | 59 | 57 | 55 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 29.73 | Â | 29.67 | 29.58 | 29.23 | 27.27 | Â | 28.37 | 28.36 | 28.38 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 261 | Â | 262 | 273 | 278 | 272 | Â | 285 | 281 | 270 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 136.4 | Â | 135.32 | 136.23 | 134.71 | 135.3 | Â | 136.24 | 138.78 | 138.67 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 3.33 | Â | 3.19 | 2.98 | 2.97 | 2.72 | Â | 2.72 | 2.85 | 2.61 | 2.37 | Â | 2.33 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | 23.25 | Â | 20 | 18.5 | 25.5 | Â | ||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| Sweden : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.37 | Â | 1.58 | 2.52 | 2.6 | 2.74 | Â | 3.32 | 2.62 | 1.66 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 513 | Â | 512 | 509 | 520 | 537 | Â | 556 | 565 | 557 | 557 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.05 | Â | 1.81 | 2.35 | 2.39 | 2.66 | Â | 2.11 | 2.46 | 0.38 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 2.02 | Â | 0.9 | -0.45 | 0.66 | 0.6 | Â | 0.76 | 1.25 | 0.57 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 1.78 | Â | 4.85 | 5.34 | 8.76 | 6.75 | Â | 8.11 | 5.07 | 2.29 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 1.74 | Â | 1.26 | 1.72 | 2.12 | 1.74 | Â | 1.9 | 2.07 | 2.32 | Â | 1.96 | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 1.94 | Â | 1.47 | 1.86 | 2.27 | 1.87 | Â | 2.04 | 2.23 | 2.5 | Â | 2.12 | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 139.3 | Â | 141.7 | 142.8 | 147.2 | 153 | Â | 159.4 | 164.2 | 165.2 | Â | 166.8 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 141 | Â | 143.8 | 144.2 | 148.6 | 154.2 | Â | 161 | 167.6 | 168.6 | Â | 170.3 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -1.7 | Â | -2.1 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.3 | Â | -1.7 | -3.4 | -3.4 | Â | -3.5 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 19.2 | Â | 17.8 | 19.2 | 18.7 | 17 | Â | 15.8 | 12.6 | 11.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 17.58 | Â | 19.28 | 20.6 | 8.11 | 11.89 | Â | 9.11 | 8.92 | 14.07 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | -2 | Â | 6.9 | 7.3 | 22.3 | 26 | Â | 14.6 | 14.8 | 17.3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 55 | Â | 54 | 55 | 57 | 57 | Â | 57 | 57 | 56 | Â | 56 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 5 | Â | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | Â | 4 | 4 | 4 | Â | 4 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 9.21 | Â | 8.92 | 8.68 | 8.01 | 8.39 | Â | 8.24 | 8.81 | 8.95 | 9.04 | Â | 8.93 |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | -0.5 | Â | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | Â | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.25 | Â | -0.25 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | 48.55 | Â | 36.22 | 28.3 | 25.99 | 11.47 | Â | 8.8 | 4.72 | 9.2 | Â | 7.96 | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 9.01 | Â | 11.49 | 11.67 | 9.82 | 8.18 | Â | 6.74 | 7.61 | 7.12 | Â | 7.67 | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.54 | Â | 10.4 | 11.21 | 10.19 | 8.04 | Â | 6.33 | 5.43 | 4.47 | Â | 4.76 | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 3.12 | Â | 7 | 7.3 | 6.61 | 6.77 | Â | 8.41 | 7.83 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | 10.7 | Â | 7.1 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 7.1 | Â | 9.3 | 10.3 | 10.9 | Â | 10.2 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -4.88 | Â | 3.88 | 2.38 | 3.39 | -3.78 | Â | 4.89 | 2.94 | 4.12 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 146 | Â | 149 | 151 | 155 | 158 | Â | 149 | 140 | 135 | 140 | Â | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 30.11 | Â | 29.53 | 28.67 | 27.11 | 28.54 | Â | 25.67 | 25.78 | 25.32 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 843 | Â | 970 | 956 | 1039 | 983 | Â | 1056 | 1015 | 985 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 173.63 | Â | 191.66 | 181.51 | 181.89 | 177.06 | Â | 182.55 | 187.25 | 184.97 | Â | ||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 0.54 | Â | 0.6 | 0.65 | 0.91 | 0.77 | Â | 0.68 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.46 | Â | 0.39 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | 9 | 9.5 | Â | 10 | |||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||
| U.S. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Latest | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16Q4 | Â | 17Q1 | 17Q2 | 17Q3 | 17Q4 | Â | 18Q1 | 18Q2 | 18Q3 | 18Q4 | Â | 18Q4(p) | |
| National Accounts | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Real GDP, %oya | 1.88 | Â | 1.94 | 2.12 | 2.34 | 2.47 | Â | 2.58 | 2.87 | 3 | Â | ||
| Â Â Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn | 18707 | Â | 18896 | 19075 | 19272 | 19486 | Â | 19705 | 19968 | 20236 | 20236 | Â | |
| Â Â Private consumption, %oya | 2.77 | Â | 2.61 | 2.47 | 2.36 | 2.7 | Â | 2.38 | 2.6 | 2.93 | Â | ||
| Â Â Public consumption, %oya | 0.96 | Â | 0.22 | 0.03 | -0.51 | -0.13 | Â | 0.57 | 1.11 | 1.76 | Â | ||
| Â Â Domestic GFCF, %oya | 2.1 | Â | 3.32 | 3.99 | 3.81 | 4.97 | Â | 4.61 | 5.21 | 5.23 | Â | ||
| Prices | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Headline CPI, %oya | 2.07 | Â | 2.38 | 1.63 | 2.23 | 2.11 | Â | 2.36 | 2.87 | 2.28 | 1.91 | Â | |
| Â Â Core CPI, %oya | 2.2 | Â | 2 | 1.7 | 1.69 | 1.78 | Â | 2.12 | 2.26 | 2.17 | 2.18 | Â | |
| Â Â Inflation target | 2 | Â | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Â | Â | |||||
| Balance of payments | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 1451 | Â | 1476.8 | 1497.8 | 1516.5 | 1546.3 | Â | 1576.1 | 1619.1 | 1650 | Â | 1660.7 | |
| Â Â Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn | 2187.6 | Â | 2224.3 | 2263.3 | 2290.1 | 2342 | Â | 2391.9 | 2441.4 | 2504.2 | Â | 2529.7 | |
| Â Â Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -502 | Â | -511.7 | -526.3 | -537.3 | -552.3 | Â | -571.3 | -569.2 | -595.1 | Â | -603.6 | |
| Â Â C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -432.9 | Â | -427 | -449.1 | -439 | -449.1 | Â | -458.1 | -442.5 | -466.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn | 494.45 | Â | 446.8 | 357.75 | 334.38 | 354.83 | Â | 300.13 | 219.89 | 235.11 | Â | ||
| Â Â Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn | 231.3 | Â | 444.3 | 702.7 | 779.2 | 799.2 | Â | 940.6 | 698 | 416.2 | Â | ||
| Â Â Foreign reserves, $bn | 106 | Â | 108 | 111 | 113 | 112 | Â | 115 | 114 | 113 | Â | 112 | |
| Â Â Reserves-to-import, in months | 1 | Â | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Â | 1 | 1 | 1 | Â | 1 | |
| Â Â USD/XXX FX, aop | 1 | Â | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Â | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Â | |
| Monetary policy & credit | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Policy rate (%, eop) | 0.75 | Â | 1 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.5 | Â | 1.75 | 2 | 2.25 | 2.5 | Â | 2.5 |
| Â Â Monetary base growth, %oya | -8.03 | Â | -1 | -1.29 | 3.61 | 8.93 | Â | -1.4 | -3.16 | -8.06 | -11.78 | Â | |
| Â Â M1 growth, %oya | 7.69 | Â | 9 | 7.95 | 7.05 | 7.51 | Â | 6.31 | 4.35 | 4.6 | 5 | Â | |
| Â Â M3 growth, %oya | 7.08 | Â | 6.34 | 5.56 | 5.16 | 4.74 | Â | 4.04 | 4.22 | 3.89 | 4.47 | Â | |
| Â Â Credit to private non-fin., %oya | 4.17 | Â | 4.23 | 4.42 | 4.09 | 4.81 | Â | 4.27 | 5.01 | Â | |||
| Public sector finance | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn | -581.6 | Â | -653.1 | -709.6 | -665.8 | -680.9 | Â | -738.7 | -749.8 | -779 | Â | -882.6 | |
| Â Â Budget balance, % GDP | -2.78 | Â | -3.82 | -4.53 | -2.6 | -2.89 | Â | -5.32 | -4.87 | -2.9 | Â | ||
| Â Â Gross public debt, $bn | 19977 | Â | 19846 | 19845 | 20245 | 20493 | Â | 21090 | 21195 | 21516 | 21974 | Â | |
| Â Â Gross public debt, % GDP | 105.26 | Â | 103.57 | 102.51 | 103.35 | 103.33 | Â | 105.23 | 103.84 | 104.15 | Â | ||
| External debt | |||||||||||||
| Â Â Gross external debt, $bn | 18325 | Â | 18287 | 18624 | 18941 | 19019 | Â | 19181 | 19307 | Â | |||
| Â Â Gross external debt, % GDP | 96.56 | Â | 95.43 | 96.2 | 96.7 | 95.9 | Â | 95.71 | 94.58 | Â | |||
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) | 2.44 | Â | 2.39 | 2.3 | 2.33 | 2.41 | Â | 2.74 | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.68 | Â | 2.7 |
| Â Â Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Â Â Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps | Â | Â | Â | ||||||||||
| Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg | |||||||||||||