1 Latam

1.1 Brazil (BRL)

Brazil : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya -2.32   0.14 0.58 1.35 2.17   1.22 0.91 1.27  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1808   1929 1992 2024 2053   2057 2018 1934 1934  
  Private consumption, %oya -2.63   -1.03 0.91 2.41 3.05   2.95 1.84 1.38  
  Public consumption, %oya 0.45   -1.65 -1.06 -1 0.19   0.74 -0.29 0.34  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -7.54   -5.05 -7.42 -0.89 3.65   2.55 2.95 7.82  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 6.29   4.57 3 2.54 2.95   2.68 4.39 4.53 3.75  
  Core CPI, %oya 6.16   5.51 4.18 3.84 3.83   2.91 3.26 3.79 3.26  
  Inflation target 4.5   4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 185.3   195.1 202.7 210.5 217.7   222 223.9 230.4 239.9  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 137.6   141.4 142.4 145.7 150.8   157.1 163.1 174.8 181.2  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 47.7   53.7 60.3 64.8 67   64.8 60.9 55.6 58.7  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -23.2   -18.6 -12 -8.2 -5.5   -10 -13.7 -16.4   -14
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 72.53   77.98 74.66 78.73 68.51   66.4 65.42 73.45   80.69
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -19.6   -17.5 -15.1 -2.2 -1.7   7.3 4.4 -1.8   -6.7
  Foreign reserves, $bn 365   370 377 381 374   380 380 381 375  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 32   31 32 31 30   29 28 26 25  
  USD/XXX FX, aop 3.35   3.13 3.3 3.13 3.3   3.28 3.78 4.11 3.89   3.71
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 13.75   12.25 10.25 8.25 7   6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5   6.5
  Monetary base growth, %oya 5.87   0.45 10.89 6.37 9.79   12.91 3.68 6.33   5.69
  M1 growth, %oya 4.55   3.7 5.75 3.69 5.73   9.27 7.65 10.1   7.17
  M3 growth, %oya 10.62   11.18 9.45 9.07 7.44   6.36 4.46 4.91   5.07
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya -3.74   -2.61 -3.33 1.28 0.47   1.44 1.94  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -47.3   -48.9 -55 -51.8 -38.9   -36.2 -29.8 -25.6   -29.3
  Budget balance, % GDP -9.86   -6.55 -7.63 -8.05 -5.83   -4.9 -7.04 -7.37  
  Gross public debt, $bn 930   1034 1019 1095 1079   1109 992 920   1010
  Gross public debt, % GDP 64.4   69.4 70.2 75.5 68.7   74.1 74.2 79.3   72.7
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 676   679 667 681 667   685 649 643  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 37.37   35.2 33.49 33.63 32.49   33.3 32.16 33.27  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 11.4   10.06 10.54 9.73 10.26   9.49 11.68 11.76 9.23   9.19
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) 5.5   4.8 4.88 4.44 4.56   4.9 6 5.82 5.16  
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 280   228.5 241 197 161   268.5 260 207  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.2 Chile (CLP)

Chile : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 0.33   -0.41 0.53 2.52 3.25   4.48 5.38 2.75  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 250   257 262 269 277   289 298 298 298  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.17   2.01 2.45 2.22 3.02   3.78 4.37 3.8  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.89   5.04 4.29 3.73 3.36   1.88 3.5 2.32  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -2.67   -2.3 -4.58 -0.89 2.65   2.97 6.97 7.11  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 2.71   2.74 1.7 1.45 2.27   1.81 2.54 3.14 2.57  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.93   2.22 2.01 1.71 1.94   1.65 1.94 2.28 2.06  
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 60.7   61.4 63.1 66.4 69.2   73 75.6 75.6 75.5  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 55.3   57 58.5 59.6 61.3   63.1 66 68.3 70.1  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 5.4   4.4 4.6 6.8 7.9   9.9 9.5 7.3 5.4  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -3.5   -5.2 -5.6 -4.5 -4.1   -3.3 -4.4 -6.6  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn -4.91   -1.85 0.61 -0.65 -1.6   -6.19 -9.02 -7.98  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.5   2.7 5.5 7.3 9.8   10.9 7.8 6.6  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 40   39 39 38 39   38 37 37 40  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 9   8 8 8 8   7 7 7 7  
  USD/XXX FX, aop 666.55   662.16 664.59 625.99 635.21   604.05 637.16 680.45 684.44   674.56
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 3.5   3 2.5 2.5 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75   2.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 13.01   7.1 5.8 5.59 7.38   2.5 7.6 12.97 -3.99  
  M1 growth, %oya 3.06   5.41 10.28 11.91 10.71   13.29 12.18 11.86 11.53  
  M3 growth, %oya 8.71   9.44 8.48 6.5 4.77   6.5 5.54 7.97 12.76  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 5.26   5.4 4.86 4.89 4.91   5.81 8.04  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -7   -8.5 -7.4 -7.2 -7.7   -7.6 -7.4 -5.8   -5.6
  Budget balance, % GDP -5.91   -0.62 -0.29 -3.86 -5.9   -0.42 -0.17 -1.56  
  Gross public debt, $bn 83   83 89 94 95   102 98  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 32.8   32.3 34.1 33.3 33.7   33.7 33.3  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 167   166 171 176 182   184 178 180   183
  Gross external debt, % GDP 61.39   62.39 64.88 64.15 59.53   59.19 58.98 65.51  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 4.36   4.03 4.12 4.4 4.55   4.55 4.55 4.79 4.79  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 82   72 65 59.5 49   60 44 63  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.3 Colombia (COP)

Colombia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.31   1.34 2.25 1.82 1.75   2.57 2.46 2.61  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 283   297 304 309 314   322 330 335 335  
  Private consumption, %oya 1.46   1.74 1.6 2.14 1.62   1.94 2.89 3.34  
  Public consumption, %oya 0.81   2.52 4.18 4.84 4.51   6.56 5 4.63  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -2.31   0.57 6.96 4.31 1.55   -1.98 -1.02 4.02  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 5.75   4.69 3.99 3.97 4.09   3.14 3.2 3.22 3.18  
  Core CPI, %oya 6.18   6.01 5.31 4.87 4.87   4.04 3.58 3.56 3.23  
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 31.8   34 35.1 36.6 37.9   38.8 40.5 41.7   42.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 42.8   43.6 44.1 44.2 44   44.1 45.5 46.8   48
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -11.1   -9.6 -9 -7.6 -6.1   -5.3 -5 -5.1   -5.8
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -12   -12.1 -12 -11.4 -10.5   -9.8 -10.4 -10.7  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 9.33   7.45 5.98 8.55 10.27   9.51 10.39 8.44  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 10   9.6 8.1 8.3 7.8   6.2 4.5 2.3  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 47   47 47 48 48   48 47 48 48  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 13   13 13 13 13   13 13 12   12
  USD/XXX FX, aop 3007.84   2939.6 2967.18 2914.99 2989.48   2843.45 2891.99 3033.28 3220.31   3152.78
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 7.5   7 5.75 5.25 4.75   4.5 4.25 4.25 4.25  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 2.52   2.45 3.87 2.35 4.98   5.36 6.37 6.33 10.44  
  M1 growth, %oya -1.28   -2.78 0.98 4.15 6.37   7.1 6.22 7.38 7.24  
  M3 growth, %oya 7.08   5.69 6.06 5.46 7.3   6.43 5.06 5.56 5.6  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 5.2   4.38 4.19 3.27 3.26   3.7 3.61  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -10.8   -12.5 -12.5 -9.6 -10.1   -9.5 -12.1 -15.2   -14.2
  Budget balance, % GDP -5.97   -4.83 -0.13 -1.64 -6.07   -3.75 -3.18 -5.07  
  Gross public debt, $bn 122   128 129 135 134   143 148 146  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 41.1   41.55 41.72 42.19 41.96   41.9 43.32 44.32  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 120   121 121 124 125   127 127 128   129
  Gross external debt, % GDP 42.5   38.5 38.4 39.5 39.6   37.3 37.3 37.6   38
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 7.11   6.65 6.42 6.57 6.48   6.51 6.58 6.89 6.75   6.94
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) 4.09   3.91 3.78 3.69 3.64   4.06 4.3 4.3 4.5  
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 164   134.5 137 121.5 104.5   121.5 110 158  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.4 Mexico (MXN)

Mexico : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.28   3.45 1.9 1.51 1.48   1.21 2.59 2.53  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1078   1076 1093 1129 1161   1202 1213 1217 1217  
  Private consumption, %oya 3.56   3.52 3.49 3.2 2.33   2.34 2.94 2.16  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.24   3.04 1.05 -0.37 0.24   1.28 3.06 0.95  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 0.76   0.64 -2.93 -0.92 -2.95   1.09 3.32 0.28  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 3.36   5.35 6.31 6.35 6.77   5.04 4.65 5.02 4.83  
  Core CPI, %oya 3.44   4.48 4.83 4.8 4.87   4.02 3.62 3.67 3.68  
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 373.9   383.5 392.4 399.4 409.4   419.9 431.1 443.3   449
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 387.1   395.4 401.6 409.3 420.4   429.9 443.6 455.4   464.6
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -13.1   -11.9 -9.1 -9.9 -11   -10 -12.4 -12.1   -15.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -24   -25.9 -20.9 -20.4 -19.1   -17.5 -18.8 -18.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 29.31   32.27 30.68 29.66 26.95   25.54 27.61 22.28  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 29.7   27.9 32.2 30.2 24   19.1 26.4 15.8  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 177   175 174 173 173   173 173 174 175  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 5   5 5 5 5   5 5 5   4
  USD/XXX FX, aop 20.52   19.27 18.13 17.84 19.22   18.58 20.3 19 20.09   19.14
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 5.75   6.5 7 7 7.25   7.5 7.75 7.75 8.25   8.25
  Monetary base growth, %oya 14.38   12.82 10.82 8.39 8.85   11.1 11.9 11.19   11.23
  M1 growth, %oya 15.52   14.62 10.62 10.64 10.23   9.37 12.62 7.77   8.98
  M3 growth, %oya 10.41   9.8 8.62 9.38 10.48   10.94 11.22 8.36   8.38
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 16.71   10.52 7.07 6.64 8.4   9.2 12.5  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -25.2   -7.4 -13.2 -10.4 -13.2   -34.4 -33.7 -31.1   -31.3
  Budget balance, % GDP -4.48   5.41 -3.07 -1.46 -4.83   -2.06 -2.94 -0.59  
  Gross public debt, $bn 363   385 409 428 402   425 399 430   418
  Gross public debt, % GDP 35.49   34.61 33.99 34.71 34.34   34.28 34.7 34.36  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 413   429 437 446 437   452 444 452  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 38.93   40.83 37.27 36.07 36.74   36.83 36.86 36.04  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 7.42   7.01 6.78 6.86 7.64   7.32 7.6 7.93 8.64   8.61
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 156.5   130.5 114 111 106   131.5 112 155  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.5 Peru (PEN)

Peru : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.04   2.25 2.58 2.73 2.31   3.15 5.48 2.27  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 195   200 204 209 215   219 223 225 225  
  Private consumption, %oya 3.05   2.25 2.48 2.75 2.59   3.17 4.49 3.33  
  Public consumption, %oya -13.67   -8.86 -2.54 2.02 6.65   3.78 0.41 -1.77  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -6.99   -7.08 -3.2 5.51 2.77   5.37 8.47 0.77  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 3.23   3.97 2.73 2.95 1.36   0.36 1.43 1.28 2.19  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.87   2.72 2.38 2.45 2.15   1.99 2.23 2.09 2.21  
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 37.1   39.5 41.7 43.6 45.3   46.9 48.9 49.1   48.9
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 35.1   35.7 36.6 37.5 38.7   39.8 41 41.8   42.1
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 2   3.8 5.1 6.2 6.6   7.2 7.9 7.3   6.8
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -5.2   -3.9 -2.3 -1.5 -2.4   -2.6 -3.1 -3.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 6.86   7.93 6.38 5.73 6.77   6.85 8.18 8.98  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -0.5   -0.5 0.3 1.5 1.7   2 1.8 0.8  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 62   63 63 64 64   62 59 58 60  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 21   21 21 21 20   19 17 17   17
  USD/XXX FX, aop 3.39   3.26 3.27 3.25 3.25   3.25 3.27 3.31 3.36   3.35
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 4.25   4.25 4 3.5 3.25   2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75   2.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 4.06   4.16 8.09 4.32 7.18   10.53 7.23 7.29   7.27
  M1 growth, %oya 6.27   5.51 6.25 5.94 7.12   11.34 10.72 9.07   8.54
  M3 growth, %oya 1.7   2.31 3.73 3.99 7.89   8.35 8.06 5.26   5.79
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 5.12   3.62 3.87 3.81 5.11   7.44 9.16 9.28 9.08  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -4.4   -4.3 -5.2 -6.2 -7   -7.3 -5.3 -4.7   -4.7
  Budget balance, % GDP -5.97   1.21 -1.4 -5.45 -6.65   0.43 2.25 -4.32  
  Gross public debt, $bn 46   47 50 51 54   52 52 53  
  Gross public debt, % GDP      
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 75   75 79 79 77   76 75 75  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 36.11   38.22 37.11 35.99 33.41   35.65 32.5 33.54  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 6.38   5.77 5.54 5.29 5.17   4.83 5.58 5.61 5.64   5.56
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 108   101.5 86 82 72   88 73 95  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.6 Argentina (ARS)

Argentina : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya -1.1   0.61 3.02 3.8 3.91   3.86 -4.02 -3.54  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 554   580 601 618 637   644 627 584 584  
  Private consumption, %oya -2.1   1.2 4.1 4.2 4.48   4.34 0.58 -4.5  
  Public consumption, %oya -1.96   1.43 3.48 1.78 1.96   -1.2 -2.59 -5.03  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -5.82   3.14 7.97 12.99 19.31   15.69 2.89 -11.2  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 41.05   35.03 23.38 26.16 26.13   25.4 29.84 39.46   46.77
  Core CPI, %oya 35.21   29.89 24.12 24.21 23.52   23.15 26.76 35.87   41.78
  Inflation target 22.5   14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5   10 10 10 10  
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 57.9   58.2 58.3 58.3 58.6   60.4 60.4 60.2   60.9
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 55.9   57.1 59.7 63.3 66.9   69.9 71 69.8   66.9
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 2   1.1 -1.4 -5 -8.3   -9.5 -10.6 -9.7   -6
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -15.1   -17.4 -21.2 -26.5 -31.6   -34 -35.8 -35.2  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.47   2.8 5.22 7.56 10.36   9.58 9.84 9.46  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 36.1   46.9 39.5 40 41.4   42.3 35.2 26.1  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 39   51 48 50 55   62 62 49 66  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 8   11 10 10 10   11 10 8   9
  USD/XXX FX, aop 15.86   15.52 16.12 17.24 17.72   20.23 26.7 38.62 37.84   36.91
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 24.75   24.75 26.25 26.25 28.75   27.25 40 40 40  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 26.62   35.26 31.04 28.03 24.72   28.75 31.52 45.68 36.04  
  M1 growth, %oya 27.88   28.53 33.09 35.52 19.57   26.32 33.28 20.37 21.58  
  M3 growth, %oya 21.26   29.16 29.77 29.02 27.09   34.11 34.66 41.24 40.35  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 33.41   31.69 37.39 42.83 47.95   51.88 66.34  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -22.9   -22.5 -24.3 -22.3 -24   -22.8 -19.3 -16.3   -14.9
  Budget balance, % GDP -5.99   -1.81 -3.89 -2.86 -6.3   -1.02 -2.11 -1.28  
  Gross public debt, $bn 275   285 294 306 321   331 327 308  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 47.49   48.76 43.63 48.32 48.85   54.1 54.16 66.32  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 181   199 205 218 235   253 261 255  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 30.99   32.6 31.94 34.5 35.37   39.46 45.38 55.15  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 17.7   16.13 16.2 14.13 17.32   16.91 19.32 22.39 21.58  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)   6.7 6.39 5.75 5.6   6.7 8.74 9.24 10.87  
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 415   365 324 284.5 232   450 561 805  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2 CEEMEA

2.1 Czech Rep. (CZK)

Czech Rep. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.8   2.95 4.96 5.2 5.05   4.07 2.36 2.35  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 195   196 198 206 217   231 241 244 244  
  Private consumption, %oya 3.18   3.97 4.14 4.43 4.4   4.09 3.48 3.07  
  Public consumption, %oya 2.03   2.27 1.46 0.6 0.89   2.74 2.7 5.24  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -4.72   0.41 3.97 5.01 4.99   9.03 9.61 9.05  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 2.01   2.6 2.29 2.69 2.36   1.66 2.62 2.33 2.02  
  Core CPI, %oya 1.99   2.81 2.4 2.77 2.3   1.4 2.24 2.05 1.74  
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 162.7   164.8 166.8 172.9 182.2   191.3 197.7 199.9   202.5
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 143   145.4 148.2 154.5 163.4   171.9 178.3 181.6   183.7
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 19.7   19.4 18.6 18.4 18.9   19.4 19.4 18.3   18.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 3.2   2 2.1 1.3 1.9   0.7 1.5 1  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.68   10.1 7.2 5.13 5.66   3.64 4.02 3.62   2.51
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.6   19.1 20.3 16.3 13.8   2.2 -6 0.3   4.6
  Foreign reserves, $bn 86   131 142 147 148   150 144 144 143  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 7   11 12 11 11   10 10 10   9
  USD/XXX FX, aop 25.65   25.29 23.37 21.9 21.68   20.61 22.1 21.97 22.71   22.29
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.05   0.05 0.05 0.25 0.5   0.75 1 1.5 1.75   1.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 11.39   11.71 14.4 2.69 -9.44   -20.36 -23.28 -16.14   5.88
  M1 growth, %oya 10.37   14.24 12.53 11.62 10.25   4.92 5.03 4.05   5.14
  M3 growth, %oya 6.53   11.76 12 12.25 10.36   6.47 6.14 5.11   6.98
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.1   5.1 4.05 3.29 4.28   4.44 6.25  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.5   0.9 1.1 0 -0.3   0.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.1  
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.65   0.4 0 0.99 -1.77   1.32 -1.66 1.68  
  Gross public debt, $bn 63   71 77 74 75   83 78 76  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 33.52   36.5 35.58 31.49 31.39   32.74 32.53 31.27  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 136   172 192 202 205   209 196 199  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 71.01   89.06 92 87.59 86.43   82.61 79.97 82.25  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 0.41   0.87 1.06 1.3 1.65   1.84 2.15 2.15 1.88   1.81
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 40.5   42 37.5 40 36   41 43  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.2 Hungary (HUF)

Hungary : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.01   4.47 3.53 4.08 4.47   4.46 4.93 4.94  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 126   127 129 134 140   148 153 154 154  
  Private consumption, %oya 4.08   3.94 4.61 5.02 5.57   5.98 5.53 5.22  
  Public consumption, %oya -2.47   -3.79 -0.35 2.82 6.31   1.14 1.03 1.19  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -16.07   19.99 24.45 18.77 11.61   17.14 15 20.03  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.77   2.68 1.89 2.53 2.13   1.97 3.08 3.59   3.11
  Core CPI, %oya 1.73   1.9 2.38 2.89 2.65   2.4 2.42 2.36   2.63
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 103   105.1 106.3 109.3 113.5   118.7 123.1 123.7   124.2
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 92.2   95 96.5 100 104.4   109.2 113.9 115.8   116.5
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 10.8   10.2 9.7 9.3 9.1   9.5 9.2 7.9   7.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.9   6.7 6.1 4.8 4.4   4.4 3.8 2.8  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.52   2.77 2.62 1.9 1.91   1.76 2.95 3.93  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -4.2   -1.8 -3 -2.1 -2.1   -1.2 -1.8 -1.7  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 26   26 27 26 28   28 28 28 28  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 3   3 3 3 3   3 3 3   3
  USD/XXX FX, aop 296.11   289.85 274.39 259.09 264.49   253.12 276.61 278.51 283.48   280.19
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.9   0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9   0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9   0.9
  Monetary base growth, %oya 13.63   18.1 13.8 22.7 15.96   22.15 22.86 16.42   14.48
  M1 growth, %oya 23.29   24.4 24.77 27.15 18.73   22.71 22.66 18.09   15.36
  M3 growth, %oya 7.06   7.55 9.89 12.75 7.82   13.72 15.73 13.14   12.67
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya -1.27   -2.27 -5.11 -1.05 -2.52   -0.3 6.14  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -2.6   -2.6 -4 -7 -7.1   -10 -9.6 -8.3 -5.4  
  Budget balance, % GDP -6.96   -2.01 -7.74 -3.86 -5.84   -9.67 -5.72 -0.61  
  Gross public debt, $bn 86   90 96 102 101   109 102 102   102
  Gross public debt, % GDP 70.64   70.36 69.5 67.73 67.78   68.69 68.35 66.14  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 117   120 125 129 124   129 123 122  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 95.04   94.02 91.04 85.03 82.9   80.77 80.88 79.19  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 3.16   3.25 3.08 2.62 2.03   2.39 3.62 3.54 2.97   2.84
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 123   115 108.5 97 85   90 87 91  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.3 Poland (PLN)

Poland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.54   4.89 4.39 5.42 4.52   5 5.11 5.72  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 471   475 484 503 529   560 577 583 583  
  Private consumption, %oya 4.66   4.66 4.99 4.89 5.11   3.97 4.62 4.52  
  Public consumption, %oya -0.35   2.29 3.16 3.68 4.5   2.88 3.17 4.1  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -9.57   1.46 1.53 3.95 6.29   8.3 5.03 10.22  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 0.85   2.02 1.53 2.22 2.06   1.37 1.97 1.89 1.11  
  Core CPI, %oya 0.01   0.64 0.85 1.03 0.89   0.67 0.63 0.87   0.7
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 203.7   206.8 209.3 217.6 228.2   240.7 252.6 257.7   259.7
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 198.4   203.2 207.7 214.8 227.8   241.8 254.7 262.4   265.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 5.3   3.6 1.6 2.7 0.4   -1.2 -2.1 -4.6   -5.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -2.5   0.1 -2 1.5 0.5   -0.9 0 -3   -3.5
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 4.67   2.14 -2.43 -1.39 6.3   7.57 12.19 14.86   12.7
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -2.1   7 2 3.1 6   4.3 -0.5 -2.5   -1.7
  Foreign reserves, $bn 114   112 112 111 113   119 109 113 117  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 7   7 6 6 6   6 5 5   5
  USD/XXX FX, aop 4.21   4.01 3.75 3.59 3.55   3.41 3.69 3.69 3.77   3.74
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5   1.5
  Monetary base growth, %oya 3.92   10.59 9.05 8.96 5.2   5.01 2.7 11.03 25.94  
  M1 growth, %oya 17.8   14.86 12.19 12.08 11.17   9.82 11 11.93   11.49
  M3 growth, %oya 9.58   7.81 4.98 5.44 4.64   5.78 7.28 7.85   8.79
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 6.92   5.14 3.53 4.15 0.71   3.33 4.57  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -11.5   -9.6 -5.2 -5.2 -7.2   -5.7 -6 -7.1   -3.3
  Budget balance, % GDP -4.86   -0.5 1.7 -0.42 -5.19   0.64 1.26 -1.21  
  Gross public debt, $bn 213   226 243 252 251   270 249 246  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 47.1   46.84 46.23 44.88 43.99   44.75 43.91 42.18  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 340   347 367 372 382   395 363 367  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 72.62   72.69 71.52 66.81 67.69   65.24 62.25 63.1  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 3.62   3.48 3.31 3.36 3.29   3.16 3.21 3.23 2.81   2.76
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 78.5   68 61.5 53 50   62 67 67  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.4 Romania (RON)

Romania : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 4.76   5.65 6.13 8.81 6.72   4 4.09 4.35  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 189   191 194 203 213   222 231 236 236  
  Private consumption, %oya 5.15   7.29 7.32 13.57 11.68   5.86 5.06 4.58  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.4   8.92 4.28 19.22 6.82   1.87 3.14 10.74  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -12.13   -0.91 -0.37 6.21 10.05   6.31 -4.79 -1.61  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya -0.53   0.19 0.86 1.77 3.32   4.95 5.4 5.03   3.43
  Core CPI, %oya 0.45   1.09 1.63 1.82 2.72   3.22 3.26 3.05   2.61
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 63.5   64.7 65.5 67.8 70.8   75.2 78.5 79.6   80.1
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 71.4   72.9 74.7 77.6 82   87.1 90.5 92.3   93.8
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -7.9   -8.1 -9.1 -9.9 -11.2   -11.9 -12.1 -12.7   -13.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -4   -4.5 -5.2 -6 -6.7   -7.2 -7.5 -9.6   -10.2
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 4.98   5.2 4.45 5.6 5.58   6.28 5.9 6.21   6.17
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.5   1.7 4.1 3.8 3.9   5.7 3.3 2.9   3.9
  Foreign reserves, $bn 35   36 39 38 39   41 36 35 36  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 6   6 6 6 6   6 5 5   5
  USD/XXX FX, aop 4.29   4.26 4.07 3.86 3.91   3.78 3.99 3.98 4.09   4.08
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.75   1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75   2.25 2.5 2.5 2.5   2.5
  Monetary base growth, %oya 15.51   18.61 13.94 7.38 14.49   21.21 8.09 16.32   18.91
  M1 growth, %oya 20.35   24.03 19.12 21.7 17.03   14.9 14.32 11.4   13.19
  M3 growth, %oya 9.74   12.06 8.86 12.22 11.45   11.67 12.87 10.26   10.88
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya -3.04   -0.49 2.22 6.64 2.46   1.98 3.53 3.09   3.65
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -7   -7.8 -7.7 -7.1 -7.8   -9.5 -9.8 -10.2   -11
  Budget balance, % GDP -5.88   -3.2 -4.76 -0.66 -5.85   -6.03 -4.7 -1.35  
  Gross public debt, $bn 63   64 69 73 73   76 73  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 34.2   33.38 33.66 32.38 32.23   31.68 31.22  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 98   101 108 113 115   120 114 114  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 45.36   64.97 55.48 45.53 43.35   62.79 52.01 42.87  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 3.47   3.86 3.92 4.09 4.31   4.46 5.21 4.98 4.81   4.66
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 110   100 110 100 90   92 104 105  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.5 Russia (RUB)

Russia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 0.4   0.6 2.52 2.18 0.87   1.34 1.94 1.54  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1296   1390 1462 1520 1578   1619 1636 1642 1642  
  Private consumption, %oya -1.5   1.74 3.02 4.21 4.3   2.75 2.55 2.15  
  Public consumption, %oya 1   0.3 0.4 0.38 0.36   0.46 0.59 -0.3  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 5.6   3.12 6.97 4 3.41   1.81 1 2.78  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 5.38   4.25 4.35 2.96 2.52   2.36 2.3 3.39 4.23  
  Core CPI, %oya 5.97   4.47 3.47 2.76 2.12   1.87 2.28 2.8 3.74  
  Inflation target 4   4 4 4 4    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 281.7   303.8 319.8 333.5 353.5   372.5 397.5 423.3   433
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 191.5   201.5 214.7 225.9 238.1   247.5 252.1 250.9   251
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 90.2   102.3 105.2 107.6 115.4   125 145.4 172.3   182
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 24.5   33.1 33.1 29.8 33.3   42.1 58.8 89.6  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 32.54   37.76 43.3 47.1 28.56   30.92 20.21 7.88  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 3   0.2 -2.2 4.9 9.3   15.1 5.8 -6.9  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 378   398 412 425 433   458 457 459   462
  Reserves-to-import, in months 24   24 23 23 22   22 22 22   22
  USD/XXX FX, aop 61.93   57.81 58.09 57.68 58.57   57.12 62.81 67.63 67.58   66.9
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 10   9.75 9 8.5 7.75   7.25 7.25 7.5 7.75   7.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 7.6   5.18 7.52 11.91 23.72   34.08 42.13 26.62   20.08
  M1 growth, %oya 6.82   5.51 7.06 8.99 10.58   11.8 14.21 14.25   12
  M3 growth, %oya -0.91   1.24 4.33 4.66 7.39   8 9.74 11.11   11.12
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya -6.48   -5.43 -0.51 -0.12 2.06   5.1 7.12  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -46.4   -41.9 -32.2 -27.7 -23.3   -11.3 -0.2 22   38.6
  Budget balance, % GDP -6.05   -1.33 -0.61 0.78 -4.36   1.82 2.18 6.18  
  Gross public debt, $bn 138   158 160 178 179   186 167 157  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 9.68   10.18 10.2 11.08 11.1   10.92 10.24 10.17  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 512   522 527 530 518   520 491 470  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 35.11   32.71 34.21 33.21 31.6   30.69 30.01 29.54  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 8.36   7.91 7.69 7.58 7.49   7.04 7.68 8.53 8.7   8.44
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) 4.46   4.17 4.28 4.04 3.87   4.54 4.79 4.88 5.05  
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 181.5   166.5 170 142 118   140.5 143.5 153  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.6 Kazakhstan (KZT)

Kazakhstan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.46   3.1 5.25 4.2 3.14   4.1 4.29 3.91  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 134   140 146 151 158   162 166 169 169  
  Private consumption, %oya      
  Public consumption, %oya      
  Domestic GFCF, %oya      
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 8.5   7.77 7.55 7.1 7   6.49 5.96 6.01 5.34  
  Core CPI, %oya 8.8   7.4 6.72 6.5 6.49   6.17 6.39 6.31 6.42  
  Inflation target      
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 36.7   39.3 43.2 45.2 48.5   51.5 54.2 58.3   59.8
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 25.4   26.3 27.8 28.8 29.6   30.7 31.1 32   32.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 11.4   13.1 15.4 16.4 18.9   20.9 23.1 26.3   27.4
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -8.9   -9.2 -7.9 -7.5 -5.4   -4.5 -3.1 -1.2  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 13.43   12.96 11.24 4.75 3.7   5.23 4.61 5.7  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -2   -1.5 0.7 1.7 2.2   0.5 -2.5 -5.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 30   30 30 32 31   31 30 30   30
  Reserves-to-import, in months 14   14 13 13 13   12 12 11   11
  USD/XXX FX, aop 334.05   315.92 318.91 339.53 333.97   320.64 336.92 367.44 372.43   376.5
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 12   11 10.5 10.25 10.25   9.5 9 9 9.25   9.25
  Monetary base growth, %oya 8.67   4.12 5.72 30.58 7.25   -12.18 10.83 1.91   3.56
  M1 growth, %oya 51.34   37.36 18.72 35.6 8.24   -2.44 11.3 -6.46   2.73
  M3 growth, %oya 15.61   8.67 7.02 6.76 -1.73   -1.56 1.37 -3.6   2.69
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya      
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -2.1   -1 -1.1 -4.3 -4.4   -4.1 -4.3 -1.5  
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.4   -0.13 -0.73 -7.64 -2.17   0.77 -1.32 -0.31  
  Gross public debt, $bn 34   38 37 38 40   45 42 40  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 23.78   24.69 23.44 24.85 24.84   26.16 24.1 23.84  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 163   165 168 169 167   167 164 161  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 86.1   131.59 121.68 110.43 77.26   118.01 107.22 96.87  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)      
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 153   152 149 133 110   74 78  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.7 South Africa (ZAR)

South Africa : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.04   1 1.24 1.56 1.45   0.82 0.42 1.09  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 297   315 330 341 349   364 374 375 375  
  Private consumption, %oya 0.9   0.93 2.34 2.74 2.86   3.19 1.54 1.12  
  Public consumption, %oya 1.58   0.76 0.84 0.5 0.42   1.22 1.04 1.44  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -1.74   0.34 0.57 1.05 -0.42   0.34 -0.09 -0.98  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 6.72   6.12 5.11 5.06 4.7   3.81 4.57 4.91   5.18
  Core CPI, %oya 5.93   4.93 4.79 4.64 4.2   4.11 4.18 4.24   4.43
  Inflation target 4.5   4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 76.4   80.9 83.2 85.4 89   91.2 92.7 93.9   94.8
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 75.1   77.8 80.4 81.5 83.2   87.3 89.1 91.9   94.1
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.3   3.1 2.9 3.9 5.8   3.9 3.6 2   0.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -8.1   -6.9 -7.7 -7.7 -8.3   -11.7 -12.2 -13.1  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.31   1.6 3.87 7.28 6.16   6.84 2.71 -1.51  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 9.5   9.5 11.9 14.3 21.4   26.9 22.4 17.2  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 47   47 47 49 51   50 51 50 52  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 8   7 7 7 7   7 7 7   6
  USD/XXX FX, aop 13.85   12.94 12.9 13.17 13.08   11.84 13.33 14.77 14.3   13.84
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 7   7 7 6.75 6.75   6.5 6.5 6.5 6.75   6.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 6.45   4.08 6.74 5.81 6.83   7.62 5.82 7.36 9.08  
  M1 growth, %oya 12.49   7.6 11.48 12.82 5.85   5.23 2.59 6.4   4.09
  M3 growth, %oya 6.07   5.59 6.09 7.13 6.42   6.43 5.77 7   5.69
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.83   5.13 6.39 7.24 6.8   5.56 6.01  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -12.4   -11.2 -12.2 -13.7 -14.5   -16.2 -16.7 -16.5   -16.1
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.39   0.59 -4.75 -9.36 -3.22   -1.22 -4.19 -8.69  
  Gross public debt, $bn 162   173 179 184 189   210 196 183   196
  Gross public debt, % GDP 49.99   50.07 50.21 51.3 51.06   52.56 52.99 53.11  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 143   152 159 163 173   183 171 168  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 44.61   44.87 45.32 45.76 49.31   45.87 43.79 46.77  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 9.62   9.73 9.86 9.72 9.71   8.85 9.67 9.91 9.9  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 217.5   218.5 199.5 186.5 157   215 204 223  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.8 Turkey (TRY)

Turkey : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 4.24   5.27 5.3 11.49 7.34   7.24 5.3 1.56  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 862   847 834 845 852   883 880 824 824  
  Private consumption, %oya 6.31   4.54 3.13 10.26 6.27   9.1 6.39 1.11  
  Public consumption, %oya 6.05   9.04 -1.82 7.62 5.89   3.48 7.81 7.48  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 1.19   3.92 7.65 12.75 6.6   7.88 4.2 -3.82  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 8.53   11.29 10.9 11.2 11.92   10.23 15.39 24.52 20.3  
  Core CPI, %oya 7.48   9.46 9.2 10.98 12.3   11.44 14.6 24.05 19.53  
  Inflation target 5   5 5 5 5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 142.5   145.7 148.3 153.4 157   160.3 161.8 164.9 168.1  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 198.6   202.3 207.3 221.3 233.8   245.3 248.4 239 223.1  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -56.1   -56.6 -59 -67.9 -76.8   -84.9 -86.7 -74.1 -55  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -33.1   -33.4 -35 -39.5 -47.4   -55.4 -57.4 -46   -33.9
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 10.2   10.26 9.58 8.94 8.22   7.12 7.77 7.62   7.49
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.8   8.9 16.6 22.1 24.1   22.7 6.6 -0.6   1.8
  Foreign reserves, $bn 106   106 109 112 108   110 98 85   91
  Reserves-to-import, in months 6   6 6 6 6   5 5 4   5
  USD/XXX FX, aop 3.5   3.67 3.52 3.48 3.84   3.89 4.63 6.32 5.32   5.46
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 8   8 8 8 8   8 17.75 24 24  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 37.3   14.78 11.64 -0.17 3.64   9.8 19.03 37.45 6.46  
  M1 growth, %oya 22.81   26.33 22.78 24.97 17.74   12.27 21.92 28.61   13.16
  M3 growth, %oya 17.86   18.18 19.65 19.79 16.11   16.74 20.04 28.82   15.87
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 16.7   21.43 22.93 23.55 21.24   19.54 21.72 27.76 12.56  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -9.6   -13.1 -14.9 -14.3 -13.5   -14.5 -17.7 -16.5   -18.6
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.31   -2.3 -1.4 -0.77 -1.81   -2.59 -2.9 -1.05  
  Gross public debt, $bn 217   216 231 243 229   235 209 178   196
  Gross public debt, % GDP 27.08   27.68 27.1 26.49 26.3   26.25 26.72 29.01  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 409   418 440 446 455   467 457 448  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 44.88   59.51 53.71 47.09 48.52   56.57 56.49 62.17  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 11.08   10.64 10.27 10.68 11.35   12.27 12.27 20.03 17.25  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop) 5.86   5.5 5.16 5.02 5.59   5.88 6.85 7.36 7.11  
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 272.5   239.5 195.5 187 166   297 376.5 360.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.9 Israel (ILS)

Israel : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 4.65   3.86 4.29 2.45 3.21   4.17 3.49 2.91  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 319   326 335 343 354   363 367 369 369  
  Private consumption, %oya 5.26   3.11 3.4 2.62 3.99   5.89 3.65 3.25  
  Public consumption, %oya 1.8   4.18 4.02 0.93 4.52   4.64 3 5.59  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 11.33   1.75 4.36 3 2.51   7.26 4.64 -2.91  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya -0.2   0.92 -0.2 0.1 0.4   0.2 1.3 1.2   1.2
  Core CPI, %oya 0.1   0.4 -0.6 -0.2 0.3   0.6 0.8 0.7   0.8
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 52.2   52.9 53.2 52.5 53.1   53.5 54.1 54.3 54.3  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 65.1   65.5 65.5 65.8 68   71.3 74.9 77.2 79.6  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -12.9   -12.5 -12.3 -13.3 -14.9   -17.8 -20.8 -22.9 -25.3  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 12.3   11.4 11 10.8 10.1   8.6 8.3 7.5  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 11.99   11.25 11.44 12.07 18.17   20.63 20.64 20.97  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 3   2.9 7.6 2 1.9   2.7 -3.3 2  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 98   103 109 111 113   116 115 115 115  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 18   19 20 20 20   20 18 18 17  
  USD/XXX FX, aop 3.83   3.65 3.53 3.53 3.5   3.47 3.61 3.59 3.76   3.67
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.1   0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1   0.1 0.1 0.1 0.25   0.25
  Monetary base growth, %oya 10.82   16.89 8.91 4.32 11.02   4.53 8.24 9.62   8.37
  M1 growth, %oya 17.22   15.65 14.57 13.14 12.57   13.62 12.99 12.81   14.88
  M3 growth, %oya 5.8   6.25 5.84 6.34 5.23   4.7 2.9 3.09 1.89  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 5.59   5.38 4.48 4.93 3.44   5.9 5.47  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -6.7   -7.6 -8.4 -6.4 -7.1   -7 -6.8 -12.3 -10.6  
  Budget balance, % GDP -6.12   -0.73 -2.05 1.25 -6.14   -0.65 -1.75 -4.81  
  Gross public debt, $bn 198   208 217 218 217   224 217 221  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 60.82   60.72 60.62 60.28 58.92   59.72 59.69 59.8  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 87   88 92 94 89   92 92 93  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 60   61 60 60 59   57 56 57  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.06   2.36 2.13 1.77 1.7   1.64 1.98 2 2.32  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 75.5   71.5 68.5 55.5 58.5   67 70 67  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.10 Egypt (EGP)

Egypt : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.81   4.27 5    
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 308   277 252 224 229   240 250 250 250  
  Private consumption, %oya 7.86   3.21 3.18    
  Public consumption, %oya 2.52   2.94 2.79    
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 22.66   5.66 6.32    
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 23.3   30.89 29.75 31.58 21.92   13.32 14.36 15.99 11.93  
  Core CPI, %oya 25.86   32.25 31.95 33.26 19.87   11.59 10.89 8.56 8.3  
  Inflation target 13   13 13 13 13    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 21.7   23.1 23.7 24.8 26.1   26.6 26.8 27.2   27.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 68.1   66.6 64.6 64.5 65   65.8 67.8 68.8   70.3
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -46.4   -43.5 -40.9 -39.6 -39   -39.3 -40.9 -41.5   -42.9
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -20.5   -17.6 -14.4 -10.8 -7.9   -7 -6 -6  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 13.84   13.69 13.37 13.03 12.53   12.85 13.16  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 0.5   8 16 24.3 23.8   23.1 12.1 1.4  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 24   29 31 37 37   43 44 44 43  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 4   5 6 7 7   8 8 8   8
  USD/XXX FX, aop 18.48   17.75 18.11 17.65 17.82   17.62 17.88 17.92 17.92   17.93
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 15.25   15.25 17.25 19.25 19.25   18.25 17.25 17.25 17.25  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 18.5   22.62 20.81 15.44 29.67   28.42 24.02 20.14   1.97
  M1 growth, %oya 20.18   19.09 23.47 21.63 17.87   21.25 15.99 13.76   13.77
  M3 growth, %oya 39   38.03 39.33 39.72 20.92   21.85 18.37 16.36   14.04
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya      
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -32.4   -20.9 -20.9 -20.9 -20.9   -23.8 -23.8 -23.8 -23.8  
  Budget balance, % GDP -12.5   -10.9 -10.9 -10.9 -10.9   -9.8 -9.8 -9.8 -9.8  
  Gross public debt, $bn 174   196 198 230 230   230 230  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 96.6   94.82 91.27 87.95 87.95   87.95 87.95  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 67   74 79 81 83   88 93  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 28.7   31.5 33.6 36.1 36.1   36.8 37  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)      
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 445   340 399.5 360 325   350 390  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.11 Nigeria (NGN)

Nigeria : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya -1.63   -1.04 0.78 1.2 2.06   2.04 1.46 1.76  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 414   386 361 370 376   384 396 410 410  
  Private consumption, %oya -14.53   5.39 0.97 -11.8 3.38    
  Public consumption, %oya -17.83   5.9 -19.46 -17.33 -1.02    
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -7.97   -3.44 -11.2 -0.01 4.79    
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 18.55   17.25 16.1 15.98 15.37   13.34 11.23 11.29   11.28
  Core CPI, %oya 14.7   13.58 12.02 12.73 12.59   11.85 11.2 10.47   10.44
  Inflation target 7.5   7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5   7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5  
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 34.7   37.1 38.6 42.7 45.8   50.3 55.3 59.5   61
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 38.2   37.3 34.8 35.4 35.4   36.3 34.7 34.4   37
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -3.5   -0.3 3.8 7.2 10.4   14 20.4 24.6   23.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.7   5 8.1 10.1 10.4   8.4 11.5 6.4  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 3   2.94 2.94 2.37 2   1.89 1.42 1.09  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.8   2 2.4 4.5 7.4   11.3 14 12.7  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 27   30 30 33 39   46 48 44 43  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 8   10 10 11 13   15 17 15   14
  USD/XXX FX, aop 315.39   314.63 323.04 357.48 360.15   360.06 361.25 362.68 363.98   362.86
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 14   14 14 14 14   14 14 14 14   14
  Monetary base growth, %oya 0.61   -2 2.02 6.98 10.88   19.66 16.06 22.35   27.19
  M1 growth, %oya 31.5   13.2 7.05 2.39 -0.85   7.81 5.01 6.13   7.09
  M3 growth, %oya 17.78   8.96 -0.44 -0.27 2.33   9.51 12.89 15.14   14.28
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya      
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -9.2   -9 -7.4 -8.6 -8.7   -8.4 -7.1 -5.2  
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.15   -3.2 -3.2 -3.2 -3.2    
  Gross public debt, $bn 35   38 37 35 35   35 34 34  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 8.47   9.86 10.32 9.46 9.29   9.09 8.48 8.27  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 11   14 15 15 19   22 22 22  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 2.94   4.02 4.21 3.94 4.56   5.87 5.44 4.88  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)      
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps   280   365  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3 EM Asia

3.1 China (CNH)

China : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 6.8   6.95 6.9 6.85 6.75   6.84 6.69 6.45  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 11182   11334 11492 11808 12264   12773 13302 13537 13537  
  Private consumption, %oya 4.46   5.48 4.44 4.42 4.06   5.29 5.34 5.23  
  Public consumption, %oya 4.46   5.48 4.44 4.42 4.06   5.29 5.34 5.23  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 2.89   1.32 2.39 2.39 2.21   2.13 2.14 2.13  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 2.11   0.89 1.51 1.5 1.7   1.91 1.59 2.31 1.79  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.02   2.12 2.22 2.32 2.12   1.92 1.71 1.51 1.71  
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 2097.6   2129.8 2172.4 2207.6 2263.3   2328.9 2393.2 2463   2503.8
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 1588   1669.6 1724.6 1786.4 1843.8   1924.9 2016.5 2113.6   2150.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 509.7   460.2 447.8 421.2 419.6   404 376.7 349.3   353.4
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 202.2   172 158.4 117.3 164.9   115.1 67.8 56.8  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn -41.67   -10.54 16.81 56.35 66.31   108.78 132.19 123.4  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 50.5   76.3 66 100.6 116.8   153.8 205.3 186.8  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 3030   3029 3077 3128 3159   3162 3132 3107 3092  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 23   22 21 21 21   20 19 18   17
  USD/XXX FX, aop 6.93   6.88 6.8 6.57 6.59   6.31 6.47 6.86 6.89   6.76
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 4.35   4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35   4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35   4.35
  Monetary base growth, %oya 11.8   6.71 5.09 5.28 4.17   6.27 4.84 3.88   -0.4
  M1 growth, %oya 21.35   18.75 15.01 13.98 11.76   7.11 6.61 4   1.48
  M3 growth, %oya 11.33   10.61 9.45 9.19 8.17   8.77 8.51 8.82   8.57
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 12.08   11.9 11.82 11.79 10.24   14.49 14.35  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -417.3   -452.2 -496 -463.3 -463.1   -451.1 -442 -459   -486.1
  Budget balance, % GDP 4.64   7.98 7.63 5.95 3.83   9.06 7.5 5.22  
  Gross public debt, $bn 3258   3334 3654 4077 4272   4491 4607 4721   4721
  Gross public debt, % GDP 29.13   29.42 31.79 34.53 34.83   35.16 34.64 34.88   34.88
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1416   1433 1558 1675 1711   1843 1871 1913  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 11.45   13.67 13.32 13.2 12.06   14.73 13.54 14.03  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 3.94   4.56 4.38 3.93 4.33   4.39 4.13 3.97 3.77   3.61
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 117.5   82.75 69.75 62.5 50   67.5 49.81 66.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.2 India (INR)

India : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 6.76   6.09 5.59 6.32 6.97   7.74 8.2 7.11  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 2212   2276 2342 2420 2509   2602 2659 2675 2675  
  Private consumption, %oya 9.31   4.22 6.94 6.82 5.86   6.69 8.6 7.01  
  Public consumption, %oya 12.32   22.48 17.62 3.81 6.82   16.85 7.56 12.68  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 8.71   5.95 0.82 6.05 9.06   14.42 10.03 12.47  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 3.41   3.89 1.46 3.28 5.21   4.28 4.92 3.7   2.33
  Core CPI, %oya 4.63   4.49 3.81 4.38 5.28   5.37 6.19 5.39   5.55
  Inflation target 4   4 4 4 4    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 264.4   275.9 281.5 289.6 299.2   303.4 313.8 321.2   325.5
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 361.5   384.4 413.6 431.4 449.8   464.7 479.1 501.9   510.3
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -97.1   -108.5 -132.2 -141.8 -150.6   -161.3 -165.4 -180.8   -184.9
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -12.1   -15.2 -29.8 -33.3 -39   -48.7 -49.6 -61.8  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 39.44   35.66 38.95 34.29 28.95   30.21 32.81 28.07  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -4.1   8 18.7 14.4 31.1   22.2 1.3 -3.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 359   370 387 400 409   425 406 401 393  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 12   12 11 11 11   11 10 10   9
  USD/XXX FX, aop 67.85   65.85 64.45 64.46 64.24   65.06 67.79 72.26 70.7   70.5
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 6.25   6.25 6.25 6 6   6 6.25 6.5 6.5  
  Monetary base growth, %oya -28.87   -9.63 -5.06 -4 55.87   27.35 21.14 18.65 17  
  M1 growth, %oya -18.86   3.05 1.34 1.57 44.71   21.83 18.07 14.57 13.59  
  M3 growth, %oya 6.2   10.11 7 5.56 10.02   9.15 9.76 9.39 10.17  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.12   6.78 3.85 5.13 8.52   9.29 12.62  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -81.3   -79.5 -99.2 -89.9 -100.9   -92 -87.6 -102.7   -102.1
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.38   -0.83 -11.33 -1.41 -2.86   0.65 -9.68 -3.64  
  Gross public debt, $bn 1033   1053 1112 1147 1178   1199 1177 1135  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 45.5   42.39 45.97 45.42 44.25   43.01 45 45.03  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 456   471 485 495 513   530 514 510  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 20.61   20.71 20.73 20.46 20.45   20.36 19.34 19.08  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 6.51   6.67 6.51 6.66 7.32   7.4 7.9 8.02 7.37   7.59
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.3 Indonesia (IDR)

Indonesia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 4.94   5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19   5.06 5.27 5.17  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 933   958 980 999 1015   1032 1043 1042 1042  
  Private consumption, %oya 5.03   5 5.02 4.95 4.98   5.01 5.22 5.08  
  Public consumption, %oya -4.03   2.69 -1.92 3.48 3.81   2.71 5.21 6.28  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 4.79   4.77 5.34 7.08 7.27   7.95 5.86 6.96  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 3.02   3.61 4.37 3.72 3.61   3.4 3.12 2.88 3.13  
  Core CPI, %oya 3.07   3.3 3.13 3 2.95   2.67 2.72 2.82 3.07  
  Inflation target 4   4 4 4 4    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 145.2   152.2 155.1 163.5 168.8   172.4 176.8 180.5   180.7
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 135.7   140.3 142 149.5 157   164.3 173.7 183.2   188.5
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 9.5   11.9 13.1 14 11.8   8 3.1 -2.7   -7.7
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -17   -14.5 -13.6 -13.2 -17.3   -20.7 -24.1 -28.3  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 16.14   16.07 17.27 18.09 19.29   19.79 18.15 14.69  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 16.8   19.7 20.2 20.3 24.3   16.8 9.8 6.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 116   122 123 129 130   126 120 115 121  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 10   10 10 10 10   9 8 8   7
  USD/XXX FX, aop 13409.82   13343.26 13307.05 13307.57 13559.33   13760.73 14007.19 14869.7 14501.67   14048
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 6.5   6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5   6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 3.9   11.1 14.72 7.78 8.94   7.25 -0.87 0.22 0.16  
  M1 growth, %oya 17.26   14.19 13.3 15.84 12.38   11.95 8.24 8.23   5.02
  M3 growth, %oya 10.03   9.99 10.29 10.9 8.28   7.54 5.91 6.71   6.55
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 7.19   7.43 7.58 7.24 6.64   7.84 9.89  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -22.8   -20.1 -18.8 -26.9 -26   -24.4 -20.9 -19.5   -19
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.56   -3.27 -2.07 -2.87 -2.06   -2.45 -0.67 -2.34  
  Gross public debt, $bn 135   145 150 157 159   162 160 159 167  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 30.17   31.57 31.74 32.23 32.65   32.91 31.83 32.89  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 320   330 337 345 353   360 356 360  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 32.89   33.45 33.45 33.63 33.93   34.14 33.88 35.1  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 7.97   7.04 6.83 6.5 6.32   6.67 7.8 8.12 8.03   7.98
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 163   128 118 104 84.5   136.5 130 137.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.4 Malaysia (MYR)

Malaysia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 4.54   5.64 5.8 6.2 5.93   5.37 4.49 4.35  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 297   301 302 306 315   330 342 350 350  
  Private consumption, %oya 6.12   6.71 7.13 7.15 6.96   6.89 7.95 9.03  
  Public consumption, %oya -4.25   7.48 3.3 3.93 6.83   0.43 3.14 5.19  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 2.37   9.96 4.08 6.69 4.28   0.06 2.21 3.2  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.74   4.92 3.4 4.16 3.51   1.26 0.76 0.33   0.17
  Core CPI, %oya 1.5   2.04 1.85 1.75 1.31   1.21 -0.17 0.26   0.26
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 190   196.5 201.8 209.4 217.8   227.7 237.6 242.9   247
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 168.7   176.6 180.5 186.5 194.8   200.6 209.4 214.8   217.9
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 21.3   19.9 21.3 22.9 23   27.1 28.1 28.1   29.1
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.1   6.7 8 9.1 9.5   12.2 11.2 9.1  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 3.36   4.57 1.29 2.71 3.79   4.45 5.95 3.88  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 0.7   -9.9 -6.3 -5.9 1.2   8.5 -5.5 -6.2  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 95   95 99 101 102   108 105 103 101  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 7   6 7 7 6   6 6 6   6
  USD/XXX FX, aop 4.46   4.44 4.28 4.21 4.08   3.9 4 4.14 4.17   4.09
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 3   3 3 3 3   3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25   3.25
  Monetary base growth, %oya 2.89   7.24 6.42 5.22 4.33   11.17 10 7.73   7.06
  M1 growth, %oya 5.65   9.21 9.28 11.09 11.02   7.87 4.73 4.13   3.32
  M3 growth, %oya 3.2   4.66 4.45 5.32 4.91   6.11 6.21 6.33   7.36
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 6.37   7.9 8.75 7.4 6.56   7.34 7.29  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -9.3   -9.6 -9.1 -8.4 -9.3   -7.6 -9.4 -10.4  
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.17   -6.23 -4.17 0.23 -2.01   -3.3 -5.59 -1  
  Gross public debt, $bn 145   150 160 163 168   181 181 177  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 49.29   51.18 51.93 50.1 48.23   51.36 51.95 50.34  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 205   202 205 208 216   229 234 229  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 71.54   67.39 65.69 64.16 63.51   63.69 66.16 65.79  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 4.22   4.13 3.91 3.92 3.91   3.94 4.2 4.07 4.07   4.06
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 140   106 85.5 69 58   107.5 83.75 109.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.5 Thailand (THB)

Thailand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.01   3.42 3.94 4.33 3.99   4.92 4.62 3.35  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 412   420 429 441 456   476 492 499 499  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.29   3.12 2.88 3.36 3.44   3.67 4.54 4.98  
  Public consumption, %oya 2.89   -0.69 0.42 1.81 0.19   1.91 2.03 2.08  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 2.11   1.73 0.29 1.23 0.33   3.35 3.66 3.93  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.13   0.76 -0.05 0.86 0.78   0.79 1.38 1.33 0.36  
  Core CPI, %oya 0.74   0.62 0.45 0.53 0.62   0.63 0.83 0.8 0.68  
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 215.4   218 223.5 230.3 236.6   243 249.1 250.9   252.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 194.2   200.6 207.4 214.2 221.5   230.3 238 246.2   251.3
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 21.2   17.3 16.1 16.1 15.1   12.7 11 4.7   1.2
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 48.2   46.6 45.4 48.6 50.2   50.1 49 38.3  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 10.59   9.24 10.16 4.64 10.63   11.22 8.59 8.76  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.6   1.3 3.3 3.1 9.5   6.3 -0.8 -1.3  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 172   181 186 199 203   216 207 204 206  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 11   11 11 11 11   11 10 10   10
  USD/XXX FX, aop 35.79   34.88 34 33.15 32.65   31.27 32.48 32.61 32.7   31.91
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 8.46   8.21 9.5 8.38 8.83   9.72 5.66 1.58 3.21  
  M1 growth, %oya 4.84   6.97 7.38 9.76 9.37   7.61 5.32 3.72   2.63
  M3 growth, %oya 4.22   3.33 4.37 4.82 5.01   6.16 5.12 4.81   4.72
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 3.74   3.92 4.33 4.14 3.87   4.55 5.13  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -14.3   -12.7 -13.4 -15.1 -16   -14.9 -15.7  
  Budget balance, % GDP -11.11   -3.81 1.21 -0.42 -10.5   -2.37 0.5  
  Gross public debt, $bn 125   136 140 150 154   164 161 167   165
  Gross public debt, % GDP 29.98   31.42 31.17 31.74 31.66   32.29 32.11 33.05  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 132   137 142 152 155   158 154 158  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 32.48   33.46 34.42 36.35 36.69   36.62 35.12 35.29  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.65   2.69 2.48 2.29 2.32   2.4 2.58 2.81 2.48   2.49
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 82.5   53 63 51 45.5   48.5 35.75 45  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.6 Taiwan (TWD)

Taiwan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.79   2.94 2.5 3.36 3.48   3.15 3.29 2.27  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 531   542 553 564 575   586 593 592 592  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.11   1.97 2.32 2.64 3.23   2.55 2.29 1.8  
  Public consumption, %oya 2.49   -4.46 1.43 1.61 -1.23   6.63 5.87 -1.5  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 5.34   4.88 1.07 -2.41 -3.26   0.36 0.02 5.4  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.69   0.18 1 0.49 1.22   1.59 1.4 1.72 -0.05  
  Core CPI, %oya 0.82   0.96 0.98 0.81 1.57   1.56 1.41 1.2 0.52  
  Inflation target 1   1 1 1 1    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 256.9   265.9 272.3 283.5 291.5   298.5 305.7 307.7 308.1  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 229.8   240.6 247.4 254.1 258.5   265.2 272 281.2 285.9  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 27   25.3 24.9 29.4 33   33.3 33.7 26.5 22.2  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 72.8   71.3 71.6 76.8 82.9   84.3 83.4 75.7  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 8.69   8.29 8.42 6.09 8.26   8.34 4.58 6.68  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.6   6.7 9.1 -4.1 3.9   -2.9 -13.6 -6.9  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 434   438 442 447 452   457 457 460 462  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 23   22 21 21 21   21 20 20 19  
  USD/XXX FX, aop 32   30.66 30.26 30.13 29.98   29.21 30.07 30.75 30.81   30.8
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.375   1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375   1.375 1.375 1.375 1.375   1.375
  Monetary base growth, %oya 5.92   4.63 4.22 4.77 4.84   6.31 7.25 5.81   5.6
  M1 growth, %oya 5.79   4.4 4.87 4.55 3.48   5.3 5.42 5.45   5.43
  M3 growth, %oya 3.55   3.59 3.57 3.58 3.56   3.45 3.76 3.33   3.22
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.91   4.61 5.13 5.76 4.76   5.29 7.42 5.98   5.83
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 10.2   10.9 13.6 12.7 10.9   12.2 15.7 13.9   12.7
  Budget balance, % GDP -0.81   7.81 2.55 -0.24 -1.93   8.01 4.84 -1.48  
  Gross public debt, $bn 23   26 26 26 26   26 25 24   24
  Gross public debt, % GDP 4.33   4.51 4.55 4.46 4.41   4.24 4.18 4.24  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 172   182 170 176 182   192 199 203  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 31.41   32.55 30.05 30.33 30.73   31.85 33.32 35.19  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 1.2   1.1 1.08 1.03 0.96   0.96 0.96 0.82 0.82  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.7 Korea (KRW)

Korea : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.56   2.87 2.81 3.78 2.79   2.79 2.82 1.96  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1417   1446 1474 1498 1533   1573 1605 1617 1617  
  Private consumption, %oya 1.4   2.1 2.38 2.58 3.36   3.51 2.85 2.51  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.53   2.38 2.82 4.3 4.13   5.81 4.83 4.58  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 7.85   11.04 9.96 9.2 5.03   3.67 -1.28 -6.58  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.34   2.28 1.81 2 1.41   1.22 1.48 2.09 1.32  
  Core CPI, %oya 1.24   1.46 1.35 1.58 1.39   1.28 1.24 1.32 1.26  
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 495.4   512.3 533.3 562.5 573.7   586.7 591.3 593.9 605.5  
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 406.2   428.8 447.3 465.7 478.5   494.4 509.7 519.2 535  
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 89.2   83.5 86 96.8 95.2   92.3 81.6 74.7 70.5  
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 99.2   91.5 80.9 83.9 78.5   71.1 72.5 74.9   76
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 17.86   19.03 18 20.58 14.62   9.73 14.4 18.78   22.36
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -3.8   15.5 21.4 10.6 17.7   12.7 12.6 28.1   17.6
  Foreign reserves, $bn 371   375 381 385 389   397 400 403 404  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 11   11 10 10 10   10 9 9 9  
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1184.35   1133.83 1131.03 1132.99 1084.91   1071.76 1093.87 1119.48 1122.52   1116.4
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.25   1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.75  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 9.13   12.66 8.71 12.13 8.68   7.36 11.39 9.94   10.55
  M1 growth, %oya 12.29   9.77 9.77 11.74 6.83   7.27 5.61 1.93   1.96
  M3 growth, %oya 7.94   7.02 6.66 6.32 6.61   6.98 7.18 6.95   7.35
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 5.54   5.36 5.61 6.24 5.59   6.12 5.86  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 15.8   23.6 19.6 18.5 20.6   23 20 22.6   22.7
  Budget balance, % GDP 2.04   -0.96 0.41 3.32 2.55   -0.42 -0.39 3.85  
  Gross public debt, $bn 500   538 557 554 578   606 614 592   592
  Gross public debt, % GDP 35.27   37.2 37.8 36.96 37.71   38.55 38.26 36.64   36.61
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 384   408 408 411 419   434 441 450  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 26.74   27.62 26.87 26.31 26.59   26.42 26.77 27.97  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.07   2.19 2.22 2.38 2.47   2.63 2.73 2.73 2.73  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 43.5   51 53.25 74 53   48.5 32.81 39  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.8 Philippines (PHP)

Philippines : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 6.67   6.45 6.64 7.15 6.5   6.58 6.18 6.11  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 305   307 308 309 313   318 322 325 325  
  Private consumption, %oya 6.66   5.87 5.96 5.37 6.22   5.7 5.93 5.16  
  Public consumption, %oya 5.03   0.15 7.6 8.33 12.19   13.55 11.91 14.26  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 18.96   13.75 6.98 7.78 9.35   8.81 21.2 16.49  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 2.23   3.07 2.49 3.04 2.91   4.34 5.23 6.7 5.13  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.34   2.52 1.94 2.31 1.92   3.37 4.17 4.33 4.04  
  Inflation target 3   3 3 3 3    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 57.4   60.8 64.1 66.7 68.4   67.5 67.3 67.5   67.8
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 84.1   87.8 89.6 91.4 95.7   97.2 101.7 106.9   109.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -26.7   -27 -25.5 -24.7 -27.2   -29.7 -34.4 -39.4   -41.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -1.2   -2.3 -0.8 0.4 -2.2   -2.2 -5.6 -9.6  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 5.88   5.78 5.44 5.56 6.54   6.13 7.12 7.49  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -0.3   -2 -1.7 -2.1 -0.8   1.6 0.4 1.8  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 81   81 81 81 82   81 78 75 78  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 12   11 11 11 10   10 9 8   8
  USD/XXX FX, aop 49.81   50.27 49.9 50.99 50.35   52.09 53.1 53.97 52.78   52.14
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 3   3 3 3 3   3 3.5 4.5 4.75   4.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 11.78   15.81 20.95 15 13.74   11.37 5.86 4.79   7.78
  M1 growth, %oya 15.06   14.78 15.99 16.67 15.68   17.76 15.24 11.4   9.46
  M3 growth, %oya 12.76   11.74 13.41 14.82 11.89   14.4 11.81 9.76   8.39
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 17.33   20.17 19.01 21.08 19.41   18.52 19.11 17.6   16.76
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -7.3   -6.6 -7.9 -7.1 -7   -8.2 -7.6 -9.9   -11.1
  Budget balance, % GDP -3.4   -2.32 -1.81 -1.53 -3.08   -3.89 -0.94 -4.39  
  Gross public debt, $bn 122   123 129 126 132   132 132 133   136
  Gross public debt, % GDP 37   43.34 40.65 42.19 37.2   43.93 40.46 42.39  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 75   74 72 72 73   73 72 76  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 24.53   24.17 23.14 23 22.86   22.51 22.07 23.16  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 4.64   4.63 4.65 4.61 4.93   6.05 6.46 6.49 7.01   6.53
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps 111.5   82 77 66 58   91 69.25 87.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.9 HK (HKD)

HK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.35   4.37 3.91 3.6 3.35   4.59 3.54 2.87  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 321   326 332 337 341   348 353 359 359  
  Private consumption, %oya 4.09   3.66 5.81 6.31 6.31   8.79 6.01 5.18  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.16   2.83 2.98 4.46 3.21   3.85 4.33 3.26  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 5.98   5.75 7.59 -2.07 3.1   4.2 1.15 8.21  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.17   0.48 1.96 1.45 1.73   2.6 2.4 2.68   2.57
  Core CPI, %oya 0.39   0.19 1.76 1.17 1.55   2.13 1.83 2.21   2.3
  Inflation target      
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 462.6   473.1 481 489.8 497.6   507.4 517.1 528.4   534
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 517   529.2 539 548.3 559.5   571.6 584.6 600.6   606.8
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -54.4   -56.1 -58 -58.6 -61.9   -64.2 -67.5 -72.1   -72.8
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 12.7   11.9 13.1 15.6 15.3   14.9 14.2 12.7  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 57.71   58.02 47.65 24.97 23.95   16.7 26.11 38.53  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 7.8   23.2 31.4 33.1 41   26.2 16.1 14.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 386   396 408 419 431   440 432 426   423
  Reserves-to-import, in months 9   9 9 9 9   9 9 9   8
  USD/XXX FX, aop 7.76   7.77 7.8 7.81 7.81   7.84 7.85 7.84 7.82   7.84
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1   1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75   2 2.25 2.5 2.75   2.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 2.72   2.9 3.43 3.39 3.13   4.75 -1.16 -3.73 -3.22  
  M1 growth, %oya 12.32   7.33 10 7.12 9.82   10.98 9.61 2.17   -0.33
  M3 growth, %oya 7.69   10.14 12.96 8.86 9.98   7.78 5.02 4.74   3.46
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 6.95   10.8 15.92 16.68 15.98   14.77 9.05  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 6.5   7.1 8 7.2 5.8   8.3 7.2 1.9  
  Budget balance, % GDP      
  Gross public debt, $bn      
  Gross public debt, % GDP      
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1356   1441 1515 1525 1576   1629 1664 1655  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 412.63   430.14 445.44 445.73 453.96   450.88 457.54 454.63  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 1.97   1.67 1.49 1.71 1.83   1.99 2.25 2.47 2.01   2.01
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.10 Singapore (SGD)

Singapore : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.72   2.53 2.79 5.51 3.62   4.5 4.09 2.3 2.2  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 310   313 314 318 324   333 341 344 344  
  Private consumption, %oya 0.15   -0.92 2.65 5.34 5.46   3.22 3.67 3.44  
  Public consumption, %oya 4.54   4.04 5.27 7.14 0.45   8.38 2.49 2.63  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -4.07   -3.17 -3.54 -2.68 2.23   -0.93 3.07 -1.36  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 0.16   0.66 0.52 0.38 0.38   0.24 0.56 0.72   0.29
  Core CPI, %oya 1.23   1.2 1.54 1.46 1.32   1.52 1.69 1.84   1.68
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 338.2   350.4 355.2 363.4 373.4   382 394.8 406.3   413.9
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 292   301.8 307.8 317 327.8   335.8 348.4 361.8   369.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 46.2   48.6 47.4 46.4 45.6   46.2 46.5 44.5   44.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 59.1   62.6 60.7 61 61   62.4 64.9 63.6  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 46.49   52.23 43.17 39.78 39.06   31.17 30.59 38.86  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 5   7.6 9.4 9.6 13.2   6.8 2.7 -0.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 247   260 266 275 280   287 288 291 288  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 10   10 10 10 10   10 10 10   9
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1.44   1.4 1.38 1.35 1.35   1.31 1.35 1.37 1.37   1.35
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.723   0.753 0.817 1.001 1.325   1.31 1.402 1.517 1.763   1.764
  Monetary base growth, %oya 13.17   12.63 15.38 13.33 9.9   12.1 10.15 8.21   7.11
  M1 growth, %oya 7.67   8.9 10.78 9.22 6.34   8.17 4.45 1.24   0.43
  M3 growth, %oya 7.69   7.19 6.97 5.28 3.18   2.81 2.73 3.46   3.51
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 3.55   3.76 5.28 4.32 7.32   7.21 2.56  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -3.3   -1.3 -1 -0.8 -0.9   1.5 3.5 2  
  Budget balance, % GDP      
  Gross public debt, $bn 322   341 349 367 373   393 391 391  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 104.02   108.83 111.14 115.7 115.03   117.95 114.71 113.45  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1326   1347 1349 1395 1447   1496 1487 1450  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 434.9   427.18 421.03 421.92 421.86   427.16 435.29 422.64  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.46   2.23 2.08 2.14 2   2.29 2.52 2.49 2.03   2.17
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4 G10 markets

4.1 Australia (AUD)

Australia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.74   2.19 2.14 2.82 2.38   3.01 3.12 2.77  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1269   1308 1331 1366 1387   1412 1432 1423 1423  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.6   2.04 2.38 2.48 2.85   2.8 2.88 2.54  
  Public consumption, %oya 4.97   5.22 3.98 2.27 4.41   4.13 3.86 4.77  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 0.28   0.43 1.79 6.76 3.31   4.25 3.54 1.32  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.48   2.13 1.93 1.83 1.91   1.9 2.08 1.89  
  Core CPI, %oya 1.28   1.46 1.55 1.9 1.9   1.98 1.79 1.24  
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 192.5   208.5 219.3 230.2 231.1   236.1 243.6 248.9   254.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 189.3   193.3 199.1 214.7 221.4   228.9 233.5 224.8   228.7
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 3.2   15.1 20.2 15.6 9.8   7.1 10.2 24.1   25.6
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -41.2   -34.4 -29.4 -28.3 -36   -38.9 -39.7 -36.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 39.35   37.18 41.63 49.9 45.27   48.12 60.56 54.99  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 6.1   19.6 33.3 52.8 66.7   91 93.8 63.5  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 51   55 59 53 64   56 53 51 51  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 3   3 4 3 3   3 3 3   2
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1.36   1.31 1.32 1.26 1.31   1.29 1.34 1.39 1.4   1.39
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5  
  Monetary base growth, %oya 2.92   5.84 5.9 6.97 6.48   3.28 3.65 3.31   4.23
  M1 growth, %oya 6.53   6.86 7.33 6.56 5.37   3.24 0.21 0.86   -0.88
  M3 growth, %oya 6.67   6.74 7.81 6.8 4.47   3.73 1.88 2.16   1.92
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.03   2.93 2.92 2.85 2.97   4.27 3.52  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -26.1   -25.4 -27.6 -22.1 -18.1   -14.2 -3.6 2   6
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.1   -1.55 -0.07 -3.68 0.1   -0.26 2.82 -2.18  
  Gross public debt, $bn 525   563 572 607 599   618 602 583  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 40.62   41.05 42.14 42.1 42.86   42.66 42.62 42.51  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1419   1440 1450 1525 1502   1563 1531 1463  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 109.9   105.02 106.84 105.71 107.45   107.93 108.36 106.63  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.77   2.7 2.6 2.84 2.63   2.6 2.63 2.67 2.32   2.31
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps   25.25 22 23 16   18 14.75 24.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.2 Canada (CAD)

Canada : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.81   2.23 3.81 3.03 2.87   2.27 1.9 2.06  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 1528   1563 1571 1608 1649   1683 1717 1718 1718  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.22   3.02 3.82 3.93 3.71   3.01 2.43 1.85  
  Public consumption, %oya 2.25   2.11 1.47 2.17 2.76   2.94 2.96 2.95  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya -3.49   0.51 1.83 2.69 6.85   5.11 4.3 1.74  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.5   1.56 1.01 1.55 1.87   2.31 2.45 2.22   1.68
  Core CPI, %oya 1.81   1.71 1.37 1.21 1.7   1.92 1.75 1.83   1.74
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 393.5   403.8 413.2 417.5 423.4   428.7 438.2 449.2   452.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 412.9   419.5 425 430.9 442.6   452.8 462.3 467.3   469.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -19.4   -15.7 -11.7 -13.4 -19.2   -24.1 -24 -18.1   -17
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -49.1   -45.6 -41 -41.5 -46.4   -50.4 -52.4 -46.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 34.32   35.22 25.07 29.19 27.9   32.39 38.26 34.56  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 129.6   135.7 126.1 137.7 146.6   120.9 114.1 91.3  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 83   83 85 84 87   83 82 81   82
  Reserves-to-import, in months 2   2 2 2 2   2 2 2   2
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1.34   1.34 1.33 1.23 1.28   1.29 1.31 1.3 1.35   1.33
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.5   0.5 0.5 1 1   1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75   1.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 5.85   5.37 6.75 6.59 5.94   5.86 4.14 6.63   4.79
  M1 growth, %oya 9.65   10.1 11.61 8.36 7.58   6.59 4.18 4.71   4.75
  M3 growth, %oya 7.6   7.77 6.31 4.4 4.61   4.47 4.39 5.52   5.49
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.09   6.04 5.89 5.47 6.59   5.49 5.11  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -14.7   -16.4 -15.6 -15.3 -12.8   -12.8 -9.5 -7   -7.5
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.37   -1.18 -0.53 -0.75 -0.72   -0.84 0.08 -0.15  
  Gross public debt, $bn 1330   1336 1374 1455 1411   1390 1384 1389  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 86.01   84.88 85.79 83.57 82.82   82.03 82.04 80.75  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1774   1779 1798 1920 1941   1940 1940 1957  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 114.68   113.03 112.31 110.24 113.88   114.52 114.98 113.78  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 1.72   1.62 1.76 2.1 2.04   2.09 2.17 2.42 1.96   1.96
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.3 Switzerland (CHF)

Switzerland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.15   0.96 1.37 1.74 2.64   3.18 3.18 2.15  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 670   671 669 673 679   693 701 703 703  
  Private consumption, %oya 1.85   1.38 1.15 1.36 0.74   1.06 1.15 0.71  
  Public consumption, %oya 1.17   0.68 0.56 0.94 1.34   1.41 1.4 0.79  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 3.14   3.21 2.32 3.59 4.24   3.32 3.6 1.21  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya -0.01   0.57 0.2 0.65 0.84   0.8 1.15 0.99 0.69  
  Core CPI, %oya -0.32   0.12 0.21 0.51 0.71   0.58 0.48 0.37 0.31  
  Inflation target 1.5   1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 213.8   216.8 217.1 219 224.1   230 235.4 235.4   238.6
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 176.3   177.8 179.4 182.6 188.8   198.2 204.2 206.4   206.2
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 37.5   39 37.7 36.4 35.3   31.8 31.2 29   32.4
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 63.3   64.5 62.5 54.5 45.4   57.3 63.5 70.1  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 27.98   6.44 -50.05 -56.31 -74.51   -21.84 51.59 60.88  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -20.5   -15.7 -44.7 -44.4 -36.4   -40.4 -13.5 -18.9  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 641   689 731 752 768   778 759 763   755
  Reserves-to-import, in months 44   46 49 49 49   47 45 44   44
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1.02   1 0.97 0.96 0.99   0.95 0.99 0.97 0.99   0.98
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) -0.75   -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75   -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75   -0.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 13.04   12.19 13.69 6.42 3.99   -0.37 -2.84 0.58   0.08
  M1 growth, %oya 6.05   5.31 6.66 6.79 7.16   6.98 5.05 4.83   5.04
  M3 growth, %oya 3.01   3.02 4.01 4.27 3.53   3.24 2.29 2.29   2.83
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.76   4.12 3.72 4.1 5.35   5.49 5.57  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 0.4   2.7 4.1 7.4 4.4   4.7 7.3 5.3   3.9
  Budget balance, % GDP -6.9   5.28 5.02 1.02 -8.26   5.08 6.06 -0.11  
  Gross public debt, $bn 97   110 106 101 107   111 107 103  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 14.95   16.66 15.47 14.58 15.55   15.44 15.39 14.38  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 1746   1773 1852 1885 1898   2007 1921 1902  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 269.46   268.12 269.49 270.87 276.84   278.17 275.21 266.13  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) -0.19   -0.09 -0.02 -0.02 -0.15   0.03 -0.06 0.04 -0.25   -0.15
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.4 Eurozone (EUR)

Eurozone : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 2.09   2.06 2.46 2.79 2.7   2.4 2.15 1.62  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 11981   11979 11987 12268 12670   13230 13611 13678 13678  
  Private consumption, %oya 1.85   1.61 1.85 1.97 1.57   1.69 1.38 1.03  
  Public consumption, %oya 1.62   1 1.12 1.35 1.2   0.97 1.07 0.9  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 4.22   2.67 3.57 2.85 2.52   3.42 2.91 3.73  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.14   1.54 1.26 1.53 1.35   1.34 1.96 2.07 1.58  
  Core CPI, %oya 0.9   0.7 1.14 1.11 0.94   1.03 0.95 0.91   0.97
  Inflation target 1.75   1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 2267.9   2308.5 2323.7 2389.3 2481.7   2583.9 2661.8 2683.8   2703.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 1972.8   2021.9 2057.5 2124 2214.6   2309.6 2388 2436.6   2461
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 295   286.6 266.2 265.3 267   274.3 273.7 247.2   242.4
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 383   383.1 355.4 386.4 417.2   449 482.8 447.1   432.1
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 381.34   514.02 398.87 210.31 133.42   -271.2 -282.95 -62.63   -100.93
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -98.4   7.6 217.8 303.6 416.3   545.2 299.4 238.2   250
  Foreign reserves, $bn 344   346 348 351 353   370 371 370   372
  Reserves-to-import, in months 2   2 2 2 2   2 2 2   2
  USD/XXX FX, aop 0.95   0.94 0.89 0.84 0.84   0.81 0.86 0.86 0.88   0.87
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0   0 0 0 0   0 0 0 0   0
  Monetary base growth, %oya 37.3   37.86 44.25 36.2 32.65   23.49 9.84 7.18 2.51  
  M1 growth, %oya 8.48   8.74 8.9 9.11 8.24   7.27 7.6 6.98   6.93
  M3 growth, %oya 5.11   5.37 4.75 4.91 4.2   3.24 4.39 3.6   3.9
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 2.7   2.66 1.5 1.19 1.41   1.21 2.06  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -206.4   -167.8 -167.8 -167.8 -167.8    
  Budget balance, % GDP -1.7   -1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.3    
  Gross public debt, $bn 8610   8840 9392 9970 9836   10377 9871  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 75.5   75.8 76 75.4 74.2   74.4 74.2  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 14932   15630 15960 16826 16442   17436 16772 16848  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 129.56   132.54 127.24 125.35 122.1   123.33 124.33 124.38  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 0.2   0.32 0.46 0.46 0.42   0.49 0.3 0.47 0.24  
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.5 UK (GBP)

UK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.7   1.81 1.91 1.96 1.61   1.25 1.41 1.5  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 2666   2598 2548 2573 2643   2743 2806 2825 2825  
  Private consumption, %oya 3.14   2.78 2.34 1.65 1.99   1.6 1.76 1.79  
  Public consumption, %oya 0.37   -0.67 -0.09 0 -0.01   0.76 -0.01 -0.37  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 2.45   3.5 3.84 2.62 3.9   2.23 -0.53 -0.31  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.56   2.32 2.64 2.96 2.97   2.46 2.45 2.42   2.31
  Core CPI, %oya 1.62   1.81 2.42 2.65 2.5   2.26 1.92 1.89   1.84
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 404.2   406.4 408.1 423.7 436.8   453.7 463 466   468.4
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 583.3   583.5 585.5 594.8 613.5   632.8 645.2 649.5   652.4
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -41.8   -40.5 -40.5 -29.5 -30.7   -29.5 -30.1 -34.6   -38.1
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -140.2   -119.5 -110 -90.2 -88   -94.4 -95.6 -108.4  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 265.55   214.36 200.47 205.66 122.25   101.07 122.24 79.77  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -29.3   102.9 81.1 107.8 236.2   202.5 227.2 226.2  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 124   129 135 137 138   144 143 142   155
  Reserves-to-import, in months 3   3 3 3 3   3 3 3   3
  USD/XXX FX, aop 0.8   0.81 0.78 0.75 0.75   0.72 0.75 0.77 0.79   0.78
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.25   0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5   0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75   0.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 17.97   27.24 32.6 30.78 21.08   12.55 9.29 8.98 4.48  
  M1 growth, %oya 11.07   8.43 4.97 5.78 4.89   3.11 4.39 3.52   4.59
  M3 growth, %oya 9.87   10.69 7.59 6.97 6.19   2.89 3.45 2.31   2.95
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 7.23   5.81 4.13 3.19 3.85   5.37 4.97  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -64.6   -48.1 -43.5 -35.5 -31.6   -36.8 -29.2 -25.2   -22.5
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.11   6.01 -1.85 0.59 -1.03   4.92 -0.93 0.98  
  Gross public debt, $bn 2133   2098 2195 2293 2365   2434 2359  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 85.38   83.81 84.17 83.74 84.93   83.36 84.18  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 7594   7723 7979 8403 8578   8918 8458 8226  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 303.9   308.46 305.97 306.85 307.99   305.41 301.79 295.58  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 1.24   1.14 1.26 1.36 1.19   1.35 1.28 1.57 1.28   1.29
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps     24 30   29.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.6 Japan (JPY)

Japan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.23   1.45 1.76 2.14 2.35   1.18 1.43 0.01  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 4935   4960 4942 4870 4861   4940 4979 4970 4970  
  Private consumption, %oya 0.34   0.49 2.03 0.7 1.19   0.32 0.04 0.69  
  Public consumption, %oya 0.46   -0.33 0.47 0.35 0.53   0.44 0.63 0.62  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 0.56   2.1 3.36 3.52 3.15   2.01 1.99 -0.63  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 0.3   0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1   1.1 0.7 1.19   0.89
  Core CPI, %oya 0.1   0 0 0.2 0.4   0.4 0.2 0.3   0.3
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 645.1   660.3 671.8 682 698.3   715.3 731.2 735.5   740.3
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 607.7   623.2 641.7 650.9 672.1   693 708.3 728.1   746.8
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 37.3   37.1 30 31.1 26.2   22.3 22.9 7.4   -6.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 194.8   195 191.2 195 196.2   197.7 202 190.1   177.1
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 134.39   157.62 172.09 153.42 149.75   129.36 129.55 131.33   145.4
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 29   97.3 122.3 142.7 153.3   88.1 110.3 73.1   102.6
  Foreign reserves, $bn 1188   1200 1219 1235 1232   1236 1228 1230 1239  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 23   23 23 23 22   21 21 20   20
  USD/XXX FX, aop 116.12   112.91 110.97 110.81 112.93   106.1 110.14 112.05 112.16   108.48
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) -0.1   -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1   -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1   -0.1
  Monetary base growth, %oya 23.33   20.21 17.18 15.38 11.4   9.03 7.39 5.82 4.9  
  M1 growth, %oya 9.08   8.72 7.65 7.65 6.79   6.22 6.5 6.19   5.5
  M3 growth, %oya 3.35   3.54 3.33 3.42 3.06   2.62 2.66 2.46   2.09
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 2.65   2.79 2.64 2.5 2.25   1.72 2.66  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -21.1   -27.2 -22.6 -22.1 -5.2   -4.6 -1.6 4.8 19  
  Budget balance, % GDP -0.37   -1 -1.36 1.15 0.79   -0.79 -1.05 1.68  
  Gross public debt, $bn 9184   9490 9723 9751 9614   10253 9888 9744   9767
  Gross public debt, % GDP 198.53   198.82 198.74 197.07 197.14   198.62 197.8 199.69  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 3440   3439 3532 3702 3599   3902 3878 3985  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 74.37   72.06 72.2 74.82 73.81   75.58 77.58 81.67  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 0.04   0.06 0.08 0.06 0.04   0.04 0.03 0.12 0   0.01
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps   40.5   24.5 21   24.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.7 Norway (NOK)

Norway : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.87   1.35 2.45 3.79 1.97   1.86 1.51 1.56  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 372   383 382 392 400   410 425 430 430  
  Private consumption, %oya 1.28   1.81 2.51 3.13 2.68   1.99 2.69 1.62  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.29   2.49 2.17 2.22 3.11   2.54 2.28 1.93  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 9.06   7.87 4.27 0.4 2.22   -4.87 1.2 2.41  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 3.47   2.44 1.93 1.63 1.63   2.19 2.55 3.4 3.49  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.47   1.66 1.64 0.96 1.35   1.15 1.14 1.91 2.1  
  Inflation target 2.5   2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 89.5   95 97.2 101 104.1   107.4 113.6 119   122.5
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 75   77.1 78.5 78.2 82.9   86 89.3 89.8   87.6
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 14.5   17.9 18.7 22.8 21.2   21.5 24.3 29.2   34.9
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 14.8   17.1 21.5 23.5 22.4   24.2 27.1 34.1  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn -17.54   -26.82 -24.28 -20.72 6.04   -8.12 -12.43 -12.11  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 5.5   1.6 -0.6 -3.2 1.6   -1.4 8.3 10  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 60   61 65 65 66   67 66 65   62
  Reserves-to-import, in months 10   10 10 10 10   9 9 9   9
  USD/XXX FX, aop 8.57   8.51 8.46 7.84 8.32   7.77 8.12 8.25 8.64   8.54
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.5   0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5   0.5 0.5 0.75 0.75  
  Monetary base growth, %oya -7.34   3.43 55.44 30.81 7.52   10.42 -26.19 -33.85   -9.38
  M1 growth, %oya 4.29   5.69 4.6 4.22 5.54   8.86 9.82 8.88   7.87
  M3 growth, %oya 5.02   7.25 6.6 5.8 6.06   5.47 6.33 5.38   4.91
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 2.18   2.77 3.41 2.73 2.5   2.37 1.48  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -10   -13.2 -14.2 -12.6 -6.6   -4.7 -2.7 1.5   2.1
  Budget balance, % GDP -7.37   -3.09 -1.62 -0.73 -1.16   -1.19 0.35 3.46  
  Gross public debt, $bn 60   74 59 76 63   82 77 75  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 16.13   19.19 15.34 18.06 15.5   18.51 17.82 16.96  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 616   640 634 678 644   672 644 635  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 165.05   166.5 163.83 160.78 158.91   152.42 148.05 144.44  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 1.63   1.62 1.63 1.58 1.58   1.84 1.76 1.92 1.75   1.75
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps     8.5 9.5   10
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.8 New Zealand (NZD)

New Zealand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 3.45   3.08 3.06 3.03 3.37   3.04 3.15 2.6  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 185   191 195 198 200   203 206 203 203  
  Private consumption, %oya 5.53   6.11 4.74 4.08 4.17   3.15 3.12 3.25  
  Public consumption, %oya 3.12   2.64 2.66 3.77 2.56   2.3 3.7 0.46  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 4.27   2.21 1.71 3.47 6.31   7.22 5.58 2.26  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.33   2.15 1.73 1.93 1.62   1.1 1.5 1.89  
  Core CPI, %oya 1.53   2.35 1.73 1.62 1.41   1.2 1.7 2.29  
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 33.8   34.5 35.5 36.5 38.1   39 39.6 39.8   40
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 36.1   37.2 38.2 38.7 40.1   41.5 42.6 43.4   43.6
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -2.3   -2.7 -2.7 -2.1 -2   -2.5 -3 -3.6   -3.6
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -4.2   -5 -5.1 -5.3 -5.9   -6.1 -6.8 -7.2  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 2.11   1.32 2.66 1.96 2.16   1.69 -0.3 0.81  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 12.2   10.1 5.7 4.8 1.6   3.9 6.4 1.6  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 18   19 20 21 21   22 22 20 18  
  Reserves-to-import, in months 6   6 6 7 6   6 6 6   5
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1.42   1.43 1.38 1.38 1.44   1.38 1.44 1.52 1.47   1.46
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 1.75   1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75   1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75   1.75
  Monetary base growth, %oya 4.04   2.34 4.91 7.16 8.85   10.51 8.48 9.67   7.41
  M1 growth, %oya 9.58   6.9 7.54 9.32 8.72   12.06 11.47 10.14   8.17
  M3 growth, %oya 7.66   6.35 6.28 6.97 7.3   7.23 7.11 7.65   6.41
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 6.44   6.48 5.79 4.87 4.06   4.14 4.58  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 1.2   2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9   4 4 4 4  
  Budget balance, % GDP 0.68   1.43 1.43 1.43 1.43    
  Gross public debt, $bn 57   57 59 60 55   59 57 55  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 29.73   29.67 29.58 29.23 27.27   28.37 28.36 28.38  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 261   262 273 278 272   285 281 270  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 136.4   135.32 136.23 134.71 135.3   136.24 138.78 138.67  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 3.33   3.19 2.98 2.97 2.72   2.72 2.85 2.61 2.37   2.33
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps   23.25   20 18.5 25.5  
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.9 Sweden (SEK)

Sweden : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.37   1.58 2.52 2.6 2.74   3.32 2.62 1.66  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 513   512 509 520 537   556 565 557 557  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.05   1.81 2.35 2.39 2.66   2.11 2.46 0.38  
  Public consumption, %oya 2.02   0.9 -0.45 0.66 0.6   0.76 1.25 0.57  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 1.78   4.85 5.34 8.76 6.75   8.11 5.07 2.29  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 1.74   1.26 1.72 2.12 1.74   1.9 2.07 2.32   1.96
  Core CPI, %oya 1.94   1.47 1.86 2.27 1.87   2.04 2.23 2.5   2.12
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 139.3   141.7 142.8 147.2 153   159.4 164.2 165.2   166.8
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 141   143.8 144.2 148.6 154.2   161 167.6 168.6   170.3
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -1.7   -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.3   -1.7 -3.4 -3.4   -3.5
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 19.2   17.8 19.2 18.7 17   15.8 12.6 11.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 17.58   19.28 20.6 8.11 11.89   9.11 8.92 14.07  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn -2   6.9 7.3 22.3 26   14.6 14.8 17.3  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 55   54 55 57 57   57 57 56   56
  Reserves-to-import, in months 5   4 5 5 4   4 4 4   4
  USD/XXX FX, aop 9.21   8.92 8.68 8.01 8.39   8.24 8.81 8.95 9.04   8.93
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) -0.5   -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5   -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.25   -0.25
  Monetary base growth, %oya 48.55   36.22 28.3 25.99 11.47   8.8 4.72 9.2   7.96
  M1 growth, %oya 9.01   11.49 11.67 9.82 8.18   6.74 7.61 7.12   7.67
  M3 growth, %oya 7.54   10.4 11.21 10.19 8.04   6.33 5.43 4.47   4.76
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 3.12   7 7.3 6.61 6.77   8.41 7.83  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn 10.7   7.1 6.4 6.4 7.1   9.3 10.3 10.9   10.2
  Budget balance, % GDP -4.88   3.88 2.38 3.39 -3.78   4.89 2.94 4.12  
  Gross public debt, $bn 146   149 151 155 158   149 140 135 140  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 30.11   29.53 28.67 27.11 28.54   25.67 25.78 25.32  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 843   970 956 1039 983   1056 1015 985  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 173.63   191.66 181.51 181.89 177.06   182.55 187.25 184.97  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 0.54   0.6 0.65 0.91 0.77   0.68 0.49 0.63 0.46   0.39
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps     9 9.5   10
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.10 U.S. (USD)

U.S. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
2016   2017   2018   Latest
16Q4   17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4   18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4   18Q4(p)
National Accounts
  Real GDP, %oya 1.88   1.94 2.12 2.34 2.47   2.58 2.87 3  
  Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn 18707   18896 19075 19272 19486   19705 19968 20236 20236  
  Private consumption, %oya 2.77   2.61 2.47 2.36 2.7   2.38 2.6 2.93  
  Public consumption, %oya 0.96   0.22 0.03 -0.51 -0.13   0.57 1.11 1.76  
  Domestic GFCF, %oya 2.1   3.32 3.99 3.81 4.97   4.61 5.21 5.23  
Prices
  Headline CPI, %oya 2.07   2.38 1.63 2.23 2.11   2.36 2.87 2.28 1.91  
  Core CPI, %oya 2.2   2 1.7 1.69 1.78   2.12 2.26 2.17 2.18  
  Inflation target 2   2 2 2 2    
Balance of payments
  Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn 1451   1476.8 1497.8 1516.5 1546.3   1576.1 1619.1 1650   1660.7
  Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn 2187.6   2224.3 2263.3 2290.1 2342   2391.9 2441.4 2504.2   2529.7
  Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -502   -511.7 -526.3 -537.3 -552.3   -571.3 -569.2 -595.1   -603.6
  C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -432.9   -427 -449.1 -439 -449.1   -458.1 -442.5 -466.9  
  Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn 494.45   446.8 357.75 334.38 354.83   300.13 219.89 235.11  
  Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn 231.3   444.3 702.7 779.2 799.2   940.6 698 416.2  
  Foreign reserves, $bn 106   108 111 113 112   115 114 113   112
  Reserves-to-import, in months 1   1 1 1 1   1 1 1   1
  USD/XXX FX, aop 1   1 1 1 1   1 1 1 1  
Monetary policy & credit
  Policy rate (%, eop) 0.75   1 1.25 1.25 1.5   1.75 2 2.25 2.5   2.5
  Monetary base growth, %oya -8.03   -1 -1.29 3.61 8.93   -1.4 -3.16 -8.06 -11.78  
  M1 growth, %oya 7.69   9 7.95 7.05 7.51   6.31 4.35 4.6 5  
  M3 growth, %oya 7.08   6.34 5.56 5.16 4.74   4.04 4.22 3.89 4.47  
  Credit to private non-fin., %oya 4.17   4.23 4.42 4.09 4.81   4.27 5.01  
Public sector finance
  Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn -581.6   -653.1 -709.6 -665.8 -680.9   -738.7 -749.8 -779   -882.6
  Budget balance, % GDP -2.78   -3.82 -4.53 -2.6 -2.89   -5.32 -4.87 -2.9  
  Gross public debt, $bn 19977   19846 19845 20245 20493   21090 21195 21516 21974  
  Gross public debt, % GDP 105.26   103.57 102.51 103.35 103.33   105.23 103.84 104.15  
External debt
  Gross external debt, $bn 18325   18287 18624 18941 19019   19181 19307  
  Gross external debt, % GDP 96.56   95.43 96.2 96.7 95.9   95.71 94.58  
  Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop) 2.44   2.39 2.3 2.33 2.41   2.74 2.86 3.06 2.68   2.7
  Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)      
  Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps      
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg