1 Latam

1.1 Brazil (BRL)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Brazil : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	-2.32	0.14	0.58	1.35	2.17	1.22	0.91	1.27
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1808	1929	1992	2024	2053	2057	2018	1934	1934
Private consumption, %oya	-2.63	-1.03	0.91	2.41	3.05	2.95	1.84	1.38
Public consumption, %oya	0.45	-1.65	-1.06	-1	0.19	0.74	-0.29	0.34
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-7.54	-5.05	-7.42	-0.89	3.65	2.55	2.95	7.82
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	6.29	4.57	3	2.54	2.95	2.68	4.39	4.53	3.75
Core CPI, %oya	6.16	5.51	4.18	3.84	3.83	2.91	3.26	3.79	3.26
Inflation target	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	185.3	195.1	202.7	210.5	217.7	222	223.9	230.4	239.9
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	137.6	141.4	142.4	145.7	150.8	157.1	163.1	174.8	181.2
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	47.7	53.7	60.3	64.8	67	64.8	60.9	55.6	58.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-23.2	-18.6	-12	-8.2	-5.5	-10	-13.7	-16.4		-14
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	72.53	77.98	74.66	78.73	68.51	66.4	65.42	73.45		80.69
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-19.6	-17.5	-15.1	-2.2	-1.7	7.3	4.4	-1.8		-6.7
Foreign reserves, $bn	365	370	377	381	374	380	380	381	375
Reserves-to-import, in months	32	31	32	31	30	29	28	26	25
USD/XXX FX, aop	3.35	3.13	3.3	3.13	3.3	3.28	3.78	4.11	3.89	3.71
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	13.75	12.25	10.25	8.25	7	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	5.87	0.45	10.89	6.37	9.79	12.91	3.68	6.33		5.69
M1 growth, %oya	4.55	3.7	5.75	3.69	5.73	9.27	7.65	10.1		7.17
M3 growth, %oya	10.62	11.18	9.45	9.07	7.44	6.36	4.46	4.91		5.07
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	-3.74	-2.61	-3.33	1.28	0.47	1.44	1.94
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-47.3	-48.9	-55	-51.8	-38.9	-36.2	-29.8	-25.6		-29.3
Budget balance, % GDP	-9.86	-6.55	-7.63	-8.05	-5.83	-4.9	-7.04	-7.37
Gross public debt, $bn	930	1034	1019	1095	1079	1109	992	920		1010
Gross public debt, % GDP	64.4	69.4	70.2	75.5	68.7	74.1	74.2	79.3		72.7
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	676	679	667	681	667	685	649	643
Gross external debt, % GDP	37.37	35.2	33.49	33.63	32.49	33.3	32.16	33.27
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	11.4	10.06	10.54	9.73	10.26	9.49	11.68	11.76	9.23	9.19
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)	5.5	4.8	4.88	4.44	4.56	4.9	6	5.82	5.16
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	280	228.5	241	197	161		268.5	260	207
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.2 Chile (CLP)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Chile : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	0.33	-0.41	0.53	2.52	3.25	4.48	5.38	2.75
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	250	257	262	269	277	289	298	298	298
Private consumption, %oya	2.17	2.01	2.45	2.22	3.02	3.78	4.37	3.8
Public consumption, %oya	3.89	5.04	4.29	3.73	3.36	1.88	3.5	2.32
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-2.67	-2.3	-4.58	-0.89	2.65	2.97	6.97	7.11
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	2.71	2.74	1.7	1.45	2.27	1.81	2.54	3.14	2.57
Core CPI, %oya	2.93	2.22	2.01	1.71	1.94	1.65	1.94	2.28	2.06
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	60.7	61.4	63.1	66.4	69.2	73	75.6	75.6	75.5
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	55.3	57	58.5	59.6	61.3	63.1	66	68.3	70.1
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	5.4	4.4	4.6	6.8	7.9	9.9	9.5	7.3	5.4
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-3.5	-5.2	-5.6	-4.5	-4.1	-3.3	-4.4	-6.6
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4.91	-1.85	0.61	-0.65	-1.6	-6.19	-9.02	-7.98
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.5	2.7	5.5	7.3	9.8	10.9	7.8	6.6
Foreign reserves, $bn	40	39	39	38	39	38	37	37	40
Reserves-to-import, in months	9	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
USD/XXX FX, aop	666.55	662.16	664.59	625.99	635.21	604.05	637.16	680.45	684.44	674.56
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	3.5	3	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.75	2.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	13.01	7.1	5.8	5.59	7.38	2.5	7.6	12.97	-3.99
M1 growth, %oya	3.06	5.41	10.28	11.91	10.71	13.29	12.18	11.86	11.53
M3 growth, %oya	8.71	9.44	8.48	6.5	4.77	6.5	5.54	7.97	12.76
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	5.26	5.4	4.86	4.89	4.91	5.81	8.04
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-7	-8.5	-7.4	-7.2	-7.7	-7.6	-7.4	-5.8		-5.6
Budget balance, % GDP	-5.91	-0.62	-0.29	-3.86	-5.9	-0.42	-0.17	-1.56
Gross public debt, $bn	83	83	89	94	95	102	98
Gross public debt, % GDP	32.8	32.3	34.1	33.3	33.7	33.7	33.3
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	167	166	171	176	182	184	178	180		183
Gross external debt, % GDP	61.39	62.39	64.88	64.15	59.53	59.19	58.98	65.51
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	4.36	4.03	4.12	4.4	4.55	4.55	4.55	4.79	4.79
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	82	72	65	59.5	49		60	44	63
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.3 Colombia (COP)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Colombia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.31	1.34	2.25	1.82	1.75	2.57	2.46	2.61
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	283	297	304	309	314	322	330	335	335
Private consumption, %oya	1.46	1.74	1.6	2.14	1.62	1.94	2.89	3.34
Public consumption, %oya	0.81	2.52	4.18	4.84	4.51	6.56	5	4.63
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-2.31	0.57	6.96	4.31	1.55	-1.98	-1.02	4.02
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	5.75	4.69	3.99	3.97	4.09	3.14	3.2	3.22	3.18
Core CPI, %oya	6.18	6.01	5.31	4.87	4.87	4.04	3.58	3.56	3.23
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	31.8	34	35.1	36.6	37.9	38.8	40.5	41.7		42.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	42.8	43.6	44.1	44.2	44	44.1	45.5	46.8		48
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-11.1	-9.6	-9	-7.6	-6.1	-5.3	-5	-5.1		-5.8
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-12	-12.1	-12	-11.4	-10.5	-9.8	-10.4	-10.7
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	9.33	7.45	5.98	8.55	10.27	9.51	10.39	8.44
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	10	9.6	8.1	8.3	7.8	6.2	4.5	2.3
Foreign reserves, $bn	47	47	47	48	48	48	47	48	48
Reserves-to-import, in months	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	12		12
USD/XXX FX, aop	3007.84	2939.6	2967.18	2914.99	2989.48	2843.45	2891.99	3033.28	3220.31	3152.78
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	7.5	7	5.75	5.25	4.75	4.5	4.25	4.25	4.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	2.52	2.45	3.87	2.35	4.98	5.36	6.37	6.33	10.44
M1 growth, %oya	-1.28	-2.78	0.98	4.15	6.37	7.1	6.22	7.38	7.24
M3 growth, %oya	7.08	5.69	6.06	5.46	7.3	6.43	5.06	5.56	5.6
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	5.2	4.38	4.19	3.27	3.26	3.7	3.61
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-10.8	-12.5	-12.5	-9.6	-10.1	-9.5	-12.1	-15.2		-14.2
Budget balance, % GDP	-5.97	-4.83	-0.13	-1.64	-6.07	-3.75	-3.18	-5.07
Gross public debt, $bn	122	128	129	135	134	143	148	146
Gross public debt, % GDP	41.1	41.55	41.72	42.19	41.96	41.9	43.32	44.32
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	120	121	121	124	125	127	127	128		129
Gross external debt, % GDP	42.5	38.5	38.4	39.5	39.6	37.3	37.3	37.6		38
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	7.11	6.65	6.42	6.57	6.48	6.51	6.58	6.89	6.75	6.94
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)	4.09	3.91	3.78	3.69	3.64	4.06	4.3	4.3	4.5
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	164	134.5	137	121.5	104.5		121.5	110	158
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.4 Mexico (MXN)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Mexico : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.28	3.45	1.9	1.51	1.48	1.21	2.59	2.53
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1078	1076	1093	1129	1161	1202	1213	1217	1217
Private consumption, %oya	3.56	3.52	3.49	3.2	2.33	2.34	2.94	2.16
Public consumption, %oya	3.24	3.04	1.05	-0.37	0.24	1.28	3.06	0.95
Domestic GFCF, %oya	0.76	0.64	-2.93	-0.92	-2.95	1.09	3.32	0.28
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	3.36	5.35	6.31	6.35	6.77	5.04	4.65	5.02	4.83
Core CPI, %oya	3.44	4.48	4.83	4.8	4.87	4.02	3.62	3.67	3.68
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	373.9	383.5	392.4	399.4	409.4	419.9	431.1	443.3		449
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	387.1	395.4	401.6	409.3	420.4	429.9	443.6	455.4		464.6
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-13.1	-11.9	-9.1	-9.9	-11	-10	-12.4	-12.1		-15.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-24	-25.9	-20.9	-20.4	-19.1	-17.5	-18.8	-18.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	29.31	32.27	30.68	29.66	26.95	25.54	27.61	22.28
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	29.7	27.9	32.2	30.2	24	19.1	26.4	15.8
Foreign reserves, $bn	177	175	174	173	173	173	173	174	175
Reserves-to-import, in months	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5		4
USD/XXX FX, aop	20.52	19.27	18.13	17.84	19.22	18.58	20.3	19	20.09	19.14
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	5.75	6.5	7	7	7.25	7.5	7.75	7.75	8.25	8.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	14.38	12.82	10.82	8.39	8.85	11.1	11.9	11.19		11.23
M1 growth, %oya	15.52	14.62	10.62	10.64	10.23	9.37	12.62	7.77		8.98
M3 growth, %oya	10.41	9.8	8.62	9.38	10.48	10.94	11.22	8.36		8.38
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	16.71	10.52	7.07	6.64	8.4	9.2	12.5
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-25.2	-7.4	-13.2	-10.4	-13.2	-34.4	-33.7	-31.1		-31.3
Budget balance, % GDP	-4.48	5.41	-3.07	-1.46	-4.83	-2.06	-2.94	-0.59
Gross public debt, $bn	363	385	409	428	402	425	399	430		418
Gross public debt, % GDP	35.49	34.61	33.99	34.71	34.34	34.28	34.7	34.36
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	413	429	437	446	437	452	444	452
Gross external debt, % GDP	38.93	40.83	37.27	36.07	36.74	36.83	36.86	36.04
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	7.42	7.01	6.78	6.86	7.64	7.32	7.6	7.93	8.64	8.61
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	156.5	130.5	114	111	106		131.5	112	155
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.5 Peru (PEN)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Peru : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.04	2.25	2.58	2.73	2.31	3.15	5.48	2.27
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	195	200	204	209	215	219	223	225	225
Private consumption, %oya	3.05	2.25	2.48	2.75	2.59	3.17	4.49	3.33
Public consumption, %oya	-13.67	-8.86	-2.54	2.02	6.65	3.78	0.41	-1.77
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-6.99	-7.08	-3.2	5.51	2.77	5.37	8.47	0.77
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	3.23	3.97	2.73	2.95	1.36	0.36	1.43	1.28	2.19
Core CPI, %oya	2.87	2.72	2.38	2.45	2.15	1.99	2.23	2.09	2.21
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	37.1	39.5	41.7	43.6	45.3	46.9	48.9	49.1		48.9
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	35.1	35.7	36.6	37.5	38.7	39.8	41	41.8		42.1
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	2	3.8	5.1	6.2	6.6	7.2	7.9	7.3		6.8
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-5.2	-3.9	-2.3	-1.5	-2.4	-2.6	-3.1	-3.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	6.86	7.93	6.38	5.73	6.77	6.85	8.18	8.98
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-0.5	-0.5	0.3	1.5	1.7	2	1.8	0.8
Foreign reserves, $bn	62	63	63	64	64	62	59	58	60
Reserves-to-import, in months	21	21	21	21	20	19	17	17		17
USD/XXX FX, aop	3.39	3.26	3.27	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.27	3.31	3.36	3.35
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	4.25	4.25	4	3.5	3.25	2.75	2.75	2.75	2.75	2.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	4.06	4.16	8.09	4.32	7.18	10.53	7.23	7.29		7.27
M1 growth, %oya	6.27	5.51	6.25	5.94	7.12	11.34	10.72	9.07		8.54
M3 growth, %oya	1.7	2.31	3.73	3.99	7.89	8.35	8.06	5.26		5.79
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	5.12	3.62	3.87	3.81	5.11	7.44	9.16	9.28	9.08
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4.4	-4.3	-5.2	-6.2	-7	-7.3	-5.3	-4.7		-4.7
Budget balance, % GDP	-5.97	1.21	-1.4	-5.45	-6.65	0.43	2.25	-4.32
Gross public debt, $bn	46	47	50	51	54	52	52	53
Gross public debt, % GDP
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	75	75	79	79	77	76	75	75
Gross external debt, % GDP	36.11	38.22	37.11	35.99	33.41	35.65	32.5	33.54
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	6.38	5.77	5.54	5.29	5.17	4.83	5.58	5.61	5.64	5.56
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	108	101.5	86	82	72		88	73	95
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

1.6 Argentina (ARS)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Argentina : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	-1.1	0.61	3.02	3.8	3.91	3.86	-4.02	-3.54
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	554	580	601	618	637	644	627	584	584
Private consumption, %oya	-2.1	1.2	4.1	4.2	4.48	4.34	0.58	-4.5
Public consumption, %oya	-1.96	1.43	3.48	1.78	1.96	-1.2	-2.59	-5.03
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-5.82	3.14	7.97	12.99	19.31	15.69	2.89	-11.2
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	41.05	35.03	23.38	26.16	26.13	25.4	29.84	39.46		46.77
Core CPI, %oya	35.21	29.89	24.12	24.21	23.52	23.15	26.76	35.87		41.78
Inflation target	22.5	14.5	14.5	14.5	14.5	10	10	10	10
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	57.9	58.2	58.3	58.3	58.6	60.4	60.4	60.2		60.9
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	55.9	57.1	59.7	63.3	66.9	69.9	71	69.8		66.9
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	2	1.1	-1.4	-5	-8.3	-9.5	-10.6	-9.7		-6
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-15.1	-17.4	-21.2	-26.5	-31.6	-34	-35.8	-35.2
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.47	2.8	5.22	7.56	10.36	9.58	9.84	9.46
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	36.1	46.9	39.5	40	41.4	42.3	35.2	26.1
Foreign reserves, $bn	39	51	48	50	55	62	62	49	66
Reserves-to-import, in months	8	11	10	10	10	11	10	8		9
USD/XXX FX, aop	15.86	15.52	16.12	17.24	17.72	20.23	26.7	38.62	37.84	36.91
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	24.75	24.75	26.25	26.25	28.75	27.25	40	40	40
Monetary base growth, %oya	26.62	35.26	31.04	28.03	24.72	28.75	31.52	45.68	36.04
M1 growth, %oya	27.88	28.53	33.09	35.52	19.57	26.32	33.28	20.37	21.58
M3 growth, %oya	21.26	29.16	29.77	29.02	27.09	34.11	34.66	41.24	40.35
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	33.41	31.69	37.39	42.83	47.95	51.88	66.34
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-22.9	-22.5	-24.3	-22.3	-24	-22.8	-19.3	-16.3		-14.9
Budget balance, % GDP	-5.99	-1.81	-3.89	-2.86	-6.3	-1.02	-2.11	-1.28
Gross public debt, $bn	275	285	294	306	321	331	327	308
Gross public debt, % GDP	47.49	48.76	43.63	48.32	48.85	54.1	54.16	66.32
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	181	199	205	218	235	253	261	255
Gross external debt, % GDP	30.99	32.6	31.94	34.5	35.37	39.46	45.38	55.15
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	17.7	16.13	16.2	14.13	17.32	16.91	19.32	22.39	21.58
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)		6.7	6.39	5.75	5.6	6.7	8.74	9.24	10.87
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	415	365	324	284.5	232		450	561	805
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2 CEEMEA

2.1 Czech Rep. (CZK)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Czech Rep. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.8	2.95	4.96	5.2	5.05	4.07	2.36	2.35
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	195	196	198	206	217	231	241	244	244
Private consumption, %oya	3.18	3.97	4.14	4.43	4.4	4.09	3.48	3.07
Public consumption, %oya	2.03	2.27	1.46	0.6	0.89	2.74	2.7	5.24
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-4.72	0.41	3.97	5.01	4.99	9.03	9.61	9.05
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	2.01	2.6	2.29	2.69	2.36	1.66	2.62	2.33	2.02
Core CPI, %oya	1.99	2.81	2.4	2.77	2.3	1.4	2.24	2.05	1.74
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	162.7	164.8	166.8	172.9	182.2	191.3	197.7	199.9		202.5
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	143	145.4	148.2	154.5	163.4	171.9	178.3	181.6		183.7
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	19.7	19.4	18.6	18.4	18.9	19.4	19.4	18.3		18.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	3.2	2	2.1	1.3	1.9	0.7	1.5	1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.68	10.1	7.2	5.13	5.66	3.64	4.02	3.62		2.51
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.6	19.1	20.3	16.3	13.8	2.2	-6	0.3		4.6
Foreign reserves, $bn	86	131	142	147	148	150	144	144	143
Reserves-to-import, in months	7	11	12	11	11	10	10	10		9
USD/XXX FX, aop	25.65	25.29	23.37	21.9	21.68	20.61	22.1	21.97	22.71	22.29
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.05	0.05	0.05	0.25	0.5	0.75	1	1.5	1.75	1.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	11.39	11.71	14.4	2.69	-9.44	-20.36	-23.28	-16.14		5.88
M1 growth, %oya	10.37	14.24	12.53	11.62	10.25	4.92	5.03	4.05		5.14
M3 growth, %oya	6.53	11.76	12	12.25	10.36	6.47	6.14	5.11		6.98
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.1	5.1	4.05	3.29	4.28	4.44	6.25
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.5	0.9	1.1	0	-0.3	0.3	-0.8	-0.4	0.1
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.65	0.4	0	0.99	-1.77	1.32	-1.66	1.68
Gross public debt, $bn	63	71	77	74	75	83	78	76
Gross public debt, % GDP	33.52	36.5	35.58	31.49	31.39	32.74	32.53	31.27
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	136	172	192	202	205	209	196	199
Gross external debt, % GDP	71.01	89.06	92	87.59	86.43	82.61	79.97	82.25
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	0.41	0.87	1.06	1.3	1.65	1.84	2.15	2.15	1.88	1.81
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	40.5	42	37.5	40	36			41	43
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.2 Hungary (HUF)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Hungary : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.01	4.47	3.53	4.08	4.47	4.46	4.93	4.94
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	126	127	129	134	140	148	153	154	154
Private consumption, %oya	4.08	3.94	4.61	5.02	5.57	5.98	5.53	5.22
Public consumption, %oya	-2.47	-3.79	-0.35	2.82	6.31	1.14	1.03	1.19
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-16.07	19.99	24.45	18.77	11.61	17.14	15	20.03
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.77	2.68	1.89	2.53	2.13	1.97	3.08	3.59		3.11
Core CPI, %oya	1.73	1.9	2.38	2.89	2.65	2.4	2.42	2.36		2.63
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	103	105.1	106.3	109.3	113.5	118.7	123.1	123.7		124.2
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	92.2	95	96.5	100	104.4	109.2	113.9	115.8		116.5
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	10.8	10.2	9.7	9.3	9.1	9.5	9.2	7.9		7.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.9	6.7	6.1	4.8	4.4	4.4	3.8	2.8
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.52	2.77	2.62	1.9	1.91	1.76	2.95	3.93
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4.2	-1.8	-3	-2.1	-2.1	-1.2	-1.8	-1.7
Foreign reserves, $bn	26	26	27	26	28	28	28	28	28
Reserves-to-import, in months	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3		3
USD/XXX FX, aop	296.11	289.85	274.39	259.09	264.49	253.12	276.61	278.51	283.48	280.19
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9
Monetary base growth, %oya	13.63	18.1	13.8	22.7	15.96	22.15	22.86	16.42		14.48
M1 growth, %oya	23.29	24.4	24.77	27.15	18.73	22.71	22.66	18.09		15.36
M3 growth, %oya	7.06	7.55	9.89	12.75	7.82	13.72	15.73	13.14		12.67
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	-1.27	-2.27	-5.11	-1.05	-2.52	-0.3	6.14
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2.6	-2.6	-4	-7	-7.1	-10	-9.6	-8.3	-5.4
Budget balance, % GDP	-6.96	-2.01	-7.74	-3.86	-5.84	-9.67	-5.72	-0.61
Gross public debt, $bn	86	90	96	102	101	109	102	102		102
Gross public debt, % GDP	70.64	70.36	69.5	67.73	67.78	68.69	68.35	66.14
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	117	120	125	129	124	129	123	122
Gross external debt, % GDP	95.04	94.02	91.04	85.03	82.9	80.77	80.88	79.19
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	3.16	3.25	3.08	2.62	2.03	2.39	3.62	3.54	2.97	2.84
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	123	115	108.5	97	85		90	87	91
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.3 Poland (PLN)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Poland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.54	4.89	4.39	5.42	4.52	5	5.11	5.72
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	471	475	484	503	529	560	577	583	583
Private consumption, %oya	4.66	4.66	4.99	4.89	5.11	3.97	4.62	4.52
Public consumption, %oya	-0.35	2.29	3.16	3.68	4.5	2.88	3.17	4.1
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-9.57	1.46	1.53	3.95	6.29	8.3	5.03	10.22
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	0.85	2.02	1.53	2.22	2.06	1.37	1.97	1.89	1.11
Core CPI, %oya	0.01	0.64	0.85	1.03	0.89	0.67	0.63	0.87		0.7
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	203.7	206.8	209.3	217.6	228.2	240.7	252.6	257.7		259.7
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	198.4	203.2	207.7	214.8	227.8	241.8	254.7	262.4		265.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	5.3	3.6	1.6	2.7	0.4	-1.2	-2.1	-4.6		-5.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2.5	0.1	-2	1.5	0.5	-0.9	0	-3		-3.5
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	4.67	2.14	-2.43	-1.39	6.3	7.57	12.19	14.86		12.7
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2.1	7	2	3.1	6	4.3	-0.5	-2.5		-1.7
Foreign reserves, $bn	114	112	112	111	113	119	109	113	117
Reserves-to-import, in months	7	7	6	6	6	6	5	5		5
USD/XXX FX, aop	4.21	4.01	3.75	3.59	3.55	3.41	3.69	3.69	3.77	3.74
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	3.92	10.59	9.05	8.96	5.2	5.01	2.7	11.03	25.94
M1 growth, %oya	17.8	14.86	12.19	12.08	11.17	9.82	11	11.93		11.49
M3 growth, %oya	9.58	7.81	4.98	5.44	4.64	5.78	7.28	7.85		8.79
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	6.92	5.14	3.53	4.15	0.71	3.33	4.57
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-11.5	-9.6	-5.2	-5.2	-7.2	-5.7	-6	-7.1		-3.3
Budget balance, % GDP	-4.86	-0.5	1.7	-0.42	-5.19	0.64	1.26	-1.21
Gross public debt, $bn	213	226	243	252	251	270	249	246
Gross public debt, % GDP	47.1	46.84	46.23	44.88	43.99	44.75	43.91	42.18
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	340	347	367	372	382	395	363	367
Gross external debt, % GDP	72.62	72.69	71.52	66.81	67.69	65.24	62.25	63.1
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	3.62	3.48	3.31	3.36	3.29	3.16	3.21	3.23	2.81	2.76
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	78.5	68	61.5	53	50		62	67	67
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.4 Romania (RON)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Romania : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	4.76	5.65	6.13	8.81	6.72	4	4.09	4.35
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	189	191	194	203	213	222	231	236	236
Private consumption, %oya	5.15	7.29	7.32	13.57	11.68	5.86	5.06	4.58
Public consumption, %oya	3.4	8.92	4.28	19.22	6.82	1.87	3.14	10.74
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-12.13	-0.91	-0.37	6.21	10.05	6.31	-4.79	-1.61
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	-0.53	0.19	0.86	1.77	3.32	4.95	5.4	5.03		3.43
Core CPI, %oya	0.45	1.09	1.63	1.82	2.72	3.22	3.26	3.05		2.61
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	63.5	64.7	65.5	67.8	70.8	75.2	78.5	79.6		80.1
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	71.4	72.9	74.7	77.6	82	87.1	90.5	92.3		93.8
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-7.9	-8.1	-9.1	-9.9	-11.2	-11.9	-12.1	-12.7		-13.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4	-4.5	-5.2	-6	-6.7	-7.2	-7.5	-9.6		-10.2
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	4.98	5.2	4.45	5.6	5.58	6.28	5.9	6.21		6.17
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.5	1.7	4.1	3.8	3.9	5.7	3.3	2.9		3.9
Foreign reserves, $bn	35	36	39	38	39	41	36	35	36
Reserves-to-import, in months	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5		5
USD/XXX FX, aop	4.29	4.26	4.07	3.86	3.91	3.78	3.99	3.98	4.09	4.08
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	2.25	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	15.51	18.61	13.94	7.38	14.49	21.21	8.09	16.32		18.91
M1 growth, %oya	20.35	24.03	19.12	21.7	17.03	14.9	14.32	11.4		13.19
M3 growth, %oya	9.74	12.06	8.86	12.22	11.45	11.67	12.87	10.26		10.88
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	-3.04	-0.49	2.22	6.64	2.46	1.98	3.53	3.09		3.65
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-7	-7.8	-7.7	-7.1	-7.8	-9.5	-9.8	-10.2		-11
Budget balance, % GDP	-5.88	-3.2	-4.76	-0.66	-5.85	-6.03	-4.7	-1.35
Gross public debt, $bn	63	64	69	73	73	76	73
Gross public debt, % GDP	34.2	33.38	33.66	32.38	32.23	31.68	31.22
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	98	101	108	113	115	120	114	114
Gross external debt, % GDP	45.36	64.97	55.48	45.53	43.35	62.79	52.01	42.87
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	3.47	3.86	3.92	4.09	4.31	4.46	5.21	4.98	4.81	4.66
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	110	100	110	100	90		92	104	105
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.5 Russia (RUB)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Russia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	0.4	0.6	2.52	2.18	0.87	1.34	1.94	1.54
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1296	1390	1462	1520	1578	1619	1636	1642	1642
Private consumption, %oya	-1.5	1.74	3.02	4.21	4.3	2.75	2.55	2.15
Public consumption, %oya	1	0.3	0.4	0.38	0.36	0.46	0.59	-0.3
Domestic GFCF, %oya	5.6	3.12	6.97	4	3.41	1.81	1	2.78
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	5.38	4.25	4.35	2.96	2.52	2.36	2.3	3.39	4.23
Core CPI, %oya	5.97	4.47	3.47	2.76	2.12	1.87	2.28	2.8	3.74
Inflation target	4	4	4	4	4
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	281.7	303.8	319.8	333.5	353.5	372.5	397.5	423.3		433
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	191.5	201.5	214.7	225.9	238.1	247.5	252.1	250.9		251
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	90.2	102.3	105.2	107.6	115.4	125	145.4	172.3		182
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	24.5	33.1	33.1	29.8	33.3	42.1	58.8	89.6
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	32.54	37.76	43.3	47.1	28.56	30.92	20.21	7.88
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	3	0.2	-2.2	4.9	9.3	15.1	5.8	-6.9
Foreign reserves, $bn	378	398	412	425	433	458	457	459		462
Reserves-to-import, in months	24	24	23	23	22	22	22	22		22
USD/XXX FX, aop	61.93	57.81	58.09	57.68	58.57	57.12	62.81	67.63	67.58	66.9
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	10	9.75	9	8.5	7.75	7.25	7.25	7.5	7.75	7.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	7.6	5.18	7.52	11.91	23.72	34.08	42.13	26.62		20.08
M1 growth, %oya	6.82	5.51	7.06	8.99	10.58	11.8	14.21	14.25		12
M3 growth, %oya	-0.91	1.24	4.33	4.66	7.39	8	9.74	11.11		11.12
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	-6.48	-5.43	-0.51	-0.12	2.06	5.1	7.12
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-46.4	-41.9	-32.2	-27.7	-23.3	-11.3	-0.2	22		38.6
Budget balance, % GDP	-6.05	-1.33	-0.61	0.78	-4.36	1.82	2.18	6.18
Gross public debt, $bn	138	158	160	178	179	186	167	157
Gross public debt, % GDP	9.68	10.18	10.2	11.08	11.1	10.92	10.24	10.17
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	512	522	527	530	518	520	491	470
Gross external debt, % GDP	35.11	32.71	34.21	33.21	31.6	30.69	30.01	29.54
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	8.36	7.91	7.69	7.58	7.49	7.04	7.68	8.53	8.7	8.44
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)	4.46	4.17	4.28	4.04	3.87	4.54	4.79	4.88	5.05
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	181.5	166.5	170	142	118		140.5	143.5	153
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.6 Kazakhstan (KZT)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Kazakhstan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.46	3.1	5.25	4.2	3.14	4.1	4.29	3.91
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	134	140	146	151	158	162	166	169	169
Private consumption, %oya
Public consumption, %oya
Domestic GFCF, %oya
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	8.5	7.77	7.55	7.1	7	6.49	5.96	6.01	5.34
Core CPI, %oya	8.8	7.4	6.72	6.5	6.49	6.17	6.39	6.31	6.42
Inflation target
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	36.7	39.3	43.2	45.2	48.5	51.5	54.2	58.3		59.8
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	25.4	26.3	27.8	28.8	29.6	30.7	31.1	32		32.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	11.4	13.1	15.4	16.4	18.9	20.9	23.1	26.3		27.4
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-8.9	-9.2	-7.9	-7.5	-5.4	-4.5	-3.1	-1.2
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	13.43	12.96	11.24	4.75	3.7	5.23	4.61	5.7
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2	-1.5	0.7	1.7	2.2	0.5	-2.5	-5.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	30	30	30	32	31	31	30	30		30
Reserves-to-import, in months	14	14	13	13	13	12	12	11		11
USD/XXX FX, aop	334.05	315.92	318.91	339.53	333.97	320.64	336.92	367.44	372.43	376.5
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	12	11	10.5	10.25	10.25	9.5	9	9	9.25	9.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	8.67	4.12	5.72	30.58	7.25	-12.18	10.83	1.91		3.56
M1 growth, %oya	51.34	37.36	18.72	35.6	8.24	-2.44	11.3	-6.46		2.73
M3 growth, %oya	15.61	8.67	7.02	6.76	-1.73	-1.56	1.37	-3.6		2.69
Credit to private non-fin., %oya
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2.1	-1	-1.1	-4.3	-4.4	-4.1	-4.3	-1.5
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.4	-0.13	-0.73	-7.64	-2.17	0.77	-1.32	-0.31
Gross public debt, $bn	34	38	37	38	40	45	42	40
Gross public debt, % GDP	23.78	24.69	23.44	24.85	24.84	26.16	24.1	23.84
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	163	165	168	169	167	167	164	161
Gross external debt, % GDP	86.1	131.59	121.68	110.43	77.26	118.01	107.22	96.87
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	153	152	149	133	110			74	78
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.7 South Africa (ZAR)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
South Africa : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.04	1	1.24	1.56	1.45	0.82	0.42	1.09
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	297	315	330	341	349	364	374	375	375
Private consumption, %oya	0.9	0.93	2.34	2.74	2.86	3.19	1.54	1.12
Public consumption, %oya	1.58	0.76	0.84	0.5	0.42	1.22	1.04	1.44
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-1.74	0.34	0.57	1.05	-0.42	0.34	-0.09	-0.98
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	6.72	6.12	5.11	5.06	4.7	3.81	4.57	4.91		5.18
Core CPI, %oya	5.93	4.93	4.79	4.64	4.2	4.11	4.18	4.24		4.43
Inflation target	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	76.4	80.9	83.2	85.4	89	91.2	92.7	93.9		94.8
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	75.1	77.8	80.4	81.5	83.2	87.3	89.1	91.9		94.1
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.3	3.1	2.9	3.9	5.8	3.9	3.6	2		0.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-8.1	-6.9	-7.7	-7.7	-8.3	-11.7	-12.2	-13.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.31	1.6	3.87	7.28	6.16	6.84	2.71	-1.51
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	9.5	9.5	11.9	14.3	21.4	26.9	22.4	17.2
Foreign reserves, $bn	47	47	47	49	51	50	51	50	52
Reserves-to-import, in months	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7		6
USD/XXX FX, aop	13.85	12.94	12.9	13.17	13.08	11.84	13.33	14.77	14.3	13.84
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	7	7	7	6.75	6.75	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.75	6.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	6.45	4.08	6.74	5.81	6.83	7.62	5.82	7.36	9.08
M1 growth, %oya	12.49	7.6	11.48	12.82	5.85	5.23	2.59	6.4		4.09
M3 growth, %oya	6.07	5.59	6.09	7.13	6.42	6.43	5.77	7		5.69
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.83	5.13	6.39	7.24	6.8	5.56	6.01
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-12.4	-11.2	-12.2	-13.7	-14.5	-16.2	-16.7	-16.5		-16.1
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.39	0.59	-4.75	-9.36	-3.22	-1.22	-4.19	-8.69
Gross public debt, $bn	162	173	179	184	189	210	196	183		196
Gross public debt, % GDP	49.99	50.07	50.21	51.3	51.06	52.56	52.99	53.11
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	143	152	159	163	173	183	171	168
Gross external debt, % GDP	44.61	44.87	45.32	45.76	49.31	45.87	43.79	46.77
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	9.62	9.73	9.86	9.72	9.71	8.85	9.67	9.91	9.9
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	217.5	218.5	199.5	186.5	157		215	204	223
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.8 Turkey (TRY)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Turkey : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	4.24	5.27	5.3	11.49	7.34	7.24	5.3	1.56
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	862	847	834	845	852	883	880	824	824
Private consumption, %oya	6.31	4.54	3.13	10.26	6.27	9.1	6.39	1.11
Public consumption, %oya	6.05	9.04	-1.82	7.62	5.89	3.48	7.81	7.48
Domestic GFCF, %oya	1.19	3.92	7.65	12.75	6.6	7.88	4.2	-3.82
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	8.53	11.29	10.9	11.2	11.92	10.23	15.39	24.52	20.3
Core CPI, %oya	7.48	9.46	9.2	10.98	12.3	11.44	14.6	24.05	19.53
Inflation target	5	5	5	5	5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	142.5	145.7	148.3	153.4	157	160.3	161.8	164.9	168.1
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	198.6	202.3	207.3	221.3	233.8	245.3	248.4	239	223.1
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-56.1	-56.6	-59	-67.9	-76.8	-84.9	-86.7	-74.1	-55
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-33.1	-33.4	-35	-39.5	-47.4	-55.4	-57.4	-46		-33.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	10.2	10.26	9.58	8.94	8.22	7.12	7.77	7.62		7.49
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.8	8.9	16.6	22.1	24.1	22.7	6.6	-0.6		1.8
Foreign reserves, $bn	106	106	109	112	108	110	98	85		91
Reserves-to-import, in months	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	4		5
USD/XXX FX, aop	3.5	3.67	3.52	3.48	3.84	3.89	4.63	6.32	5.32	5.46
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	8	8	8	8	8	8	17.75	24	24
Monetary base growth, %oya	37.3	14.78	11.64	-0.17	3.64	9.8	19.03	37.45	6.46
M1 growth, %oya	22.81	26.33	22.78	24.97	17.74	12.27	21.92	28.61		13.16
M3 growth, %oya	17.86	18.18	19.65	19.79	16.11	16.74	20.04	28.82		15.87
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	16.7	21.43	22.93	23.55	21.24	19.54	21.72	27.76	12.56
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-9.6	-13.1	-14.9	-14.3	-13.5	-14.5	-17.7	-16.5		-18.6
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.31	-2.3	-1.4	-0.77	-1.81	-2.59	-2.9	-1.05
Gross public debt, $bn	217	216	231	243	229	235	209	178		196
Gross public debt, % GDP	27.08	27.68	27.1	26.49	26.3	26.25	26.72	29.01
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	409	418	440	446	455	467	457	448
Gross external debt, % GDP	44.88	59.51	53.71	47.09	48.52	56.57	56.49	62.17
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	11.08	10.64	10.27	10.68	11.35	12.27	12.27	20.03	17.25
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)	5.86	5.5	5.16	5.02	5.59	5.88	6.85	7.36	7.11
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	272.5	239.5	195.5	187	166		297	376.5	360.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.9 Israel (ILS)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Israel : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	4.65	3.86	4.29	2.45	3.21	4.17	3.49	2.91
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	319	326	335	343	354	363	367	369	369
Private consumption, %oya	5.26	3.11	3.4	2.62	3.99	5.89	3.65	3.25
Public consumption, %oya	1.8	4.18	4.02	0.93	4.52	4.64	3	5.59
Domestic GFCF, %oya	11.33	1.75	4.36	3	2.51	7.26	4.64	-2.91
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	-0.2	0.92	-0.2	0.1	0.4	0.2	1.3	1.2		1.2
Core CPI, %oya	0.1	0.4	-0.6	-0.2	0.3	0.6	0.8	0.7		0.8
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	52.2	52.9	53.2	52.5	53.1	53.5	54.1	54.3	54.3
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	65.1	65.5	65.5	65.8	68	71.3	74.9	77.2	79.6
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-12.9	-12.5	-12.3	-13.3	-14.9	-17.8	-20.8	-22.9	-25.3
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	12.3	11.4	11	10.8	10.1	8.6	8.3	7.5
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	11.99	11.25	11.44	12.07	18.17	20.63	20.64	20.97
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	3	2.9	7.6	2	1.9	2.7	-3.3	2
Foreign reserves, $bn	98	103	109	111	113	116	115	115	115
Reserves-to-import, in months	18	19	20	20	20	20	18	18	17
USD/XXX FX, aop	3.83	3.65	3.53	3.53	3.5	3.47	3.61	3.59	3.76	3.67
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.25	0.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	10.82	16.89	8.91	4.32	11.02	4.53	8.24	9.62		8.37
M1 growth, %oya	17.22	15.65	14.57	13.14	12.57	13.62	12.99	12.81		14.88
M3 growth, %oya	5.8	6.25	5.84	6.34	5.23	4.7	2.9	3.09	1.89
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	5.59	5.38	4.48	4.93	3.44	5.9	5.47
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-6.7	-7.6	-8.4	-6.4	-7.1	-7	-6.8	-12.3	-10.6
Budget balance, % GDP	-6.12	-0.73	-2.05	1.25	-6.14	-0.65	-1.75	-4.81
Gross public debt, $bn	198	208	217	218	217	224	217	221
Gross public debt, % GDP	60.82	60.72	60.62	60.28	58.92	59.72	59.69	59.8
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	87	88	92	94	89	92	92	93
Gross external debt, % GDP	60	61	60	60	59	57	56	57
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.06	2.36	2.13	1.77	1.7	1.64	1.98	2	2.32
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	75.5	71.5	68.5	55.5	58.5		67	70	67
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.10 Egypt (EGP)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Egypt : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.81	4.27	5
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	308	277	252	224	229	240	250	250	250
Private consumption, %oya	7.86	3.21	3.18
Public consumption, %oya	2.52	2.94	2.79
Domestic GFCF, %oya	22.66	5.66	6.32
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	23.3	30.89	29.75	31.58	21.92	13.32	14.36	15.99	11.93
Core CPI, %oya	25.86	32.25	31.95	33.26	19.87	11.59	10.89	8.56	8.3
Inflation target	13	13	13	13	13
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	21.7	23.1	23.7	24.8	26.1	26.6	26.8	27.2		27.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	68.1	66.6	64.6	64.5	65	65.8	67.8	68.8		70.3
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-46.4	-43.5	-40.9	-39.6	-39	-39.3	-40.9	-41.5		-42.9
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-20.5	-17.6	-14.4	-10.8	-7.9	-7	-6	-6
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	13.84	13.69	13.37	13.03	12.53	12.85	13.16
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	0.5	8	16	24.3	23.8	23.1	12.1	1.4
Foreign reserves, $bn	24	29	31	37	37	43	44	44	43
Reserves-to-import, in months	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8		8
USD/XXX FX, aop	18.48	17.75	18.11	17.65	17.82	17.62	17.88	17.92	17.92	17.93
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	15.25	15.25	17.25	19.25	19.25	18.25	17.25	17.25	17.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	18.5	22.62	20.81	15.44	29.67	28.42	24.02	20.14		1.97
M1 growth, %oya	20.18	19.09	23.47	21.63	17.87	21.25	15.99	13.76		13.77
M3 growth, %oya	39	38.03	39.33	39.72	20.92	21.85	18.37	16.36		14.04
Credit to private non-fin., %oya
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-32.4	-20.9	-20.9	-20.9	-20.9	-23.8	-23.8	-23.8	-23.8
Budget balance, % GDP	-12.5	-10.9	-10.9	-10.9	-10.9	-9.8	-9.8	-9.8	-9.8
Gross public debt, $bn	174	196	198	230	230	230	230
Gross public debt, % GDP	96.6	94.82	91.27	87.95	87.95	87.95	87.95
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	67	74	79	81	83	88	93
Gross external debt, % GDP	28.7	31.5	33.6	36.1	36.1	36.8	37
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	445	340	399.5	360	325			350	390
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

2.11 Nigeria (NGN)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Nigeria : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	-1.63	-1.04	0.78	1.2	2.06	2.04	1.46	1.76
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	414	386	361	370	376	384	396	410	410
Private consumption, %oya	-14.53	5.39	0.97	-11.8	3.38
Public consumption, %oya	-17.83	5.9	-19.46	-17.33	-1.02
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-7.97	-3.44	-11.2	-0.01	4.79
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	18.55	17.25	16.1	15.98	15.37	13.34	11.23	11.29		11.28
Core CPI, %oya	14.7	13.58	12.02	12.73	12.59	11.85	11.2	10.47		10.44
Inflation target	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	34.7	37.1	38.6	42.7	45.8	50.3	55.3	59.5		61
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	38.2	37.3	34.8	35.4	35.4	36.3	34.7	34.4		37
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-3.5	-0.3	3.8	7.2	10.4	14	20.4	24.6		23.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.7	5	8.1	10.1	10.4	8.4	11.5	6.4
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	3	2.94	2.94	2.37	2	1.89	1.42	1.09
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.8	2	2.4	4.5	7.4	11.3	14	12.7
Foreign reserves, $bn	27	30	30	33	39	46	48	44	43
Reserves-to-import, in months	8	10	10	11	13	15	17	15		14
USD/XXX FX, aop	315.39	314.63	323.04	357.48	360.15	360.06	361.25	362.68	363.98	362.86
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Monetary base growth, %oya	0.61	-2	2.02	6.98	10.88	19.66	16.06	22.35		27.19
M1 growth, %oya	31.5	13.2	7.05	2.39	-0.85	7.81	5.01	6.13		7.09
M3 growth, %oya	17.78	8.96	-0.44	-0.27	2.33	9.51	12.89	15.14		14.28
Credit to private non-fin., %oya
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-9.2	-9	-7.4	-8.6	-8.7	-8.4	-7.1	-5.2
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.15	-3.2	-3.2	-3.2	-3.2
Gross public debt, $bn	35	38	37	35	35	35	34	34
Gross public debt, % GDP	8.47	9.86	10.32	9.46	9.29	9.09	8.48	8.27
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	11	14	15	15	19	22	22	22
Gross external debt, % GDP	2.94	4.02	4.21	3.94	4.56	5.87	5.44	4.88
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps					280				365
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3 EM Asia

3.1 China (CNH)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
China : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	6.8	6.95	6.9	6.85	6.75	6.84	6.69	6.45
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	11182	11334	11492	11808	12264	12773	13302	13537	13537
Private consumption, %oya	4.46	5.48	4.44	4.42	4.06	5.29	5.34	5.23
Public consumption, %oya	4.46	5.48	4.44	4.42	4.06	5.29	5.34	5.23
Domestic GFCF, %oya	2.89	1.32	2.39	2.39	2.21	2.13	2.14	2.13
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	2.11	0.89	1.51	1.5	1.7	1.91	1.59	2.31	1.79
Core CPI, %oya	2.02	2.12	2.22	2.32	2.12	1.92	1.71	1.51	1.71
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	2097.6	2129.8	2172.4	2207.6	2263.3	2328.9	2393.2	2463		2503.8
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	1588	1669.6	1724.6	1786.4	1843.8	1924.9	2016.5	2113.6		2150.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	509.7	460.2	447.8	421.2	419.6	404	376.7	349.3		353.4
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	202.2	172	158.4	117.3	164.9	115.1	67.8	56.8
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	-41.67	-10.54	16.81	56.35	66.31	108.78	132.19	123.4
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	50.5	76.3	66	100.6	116.8	153.8	205.3	186.8
Foreign reserves, $bn	3030	3029	3077	3128	3159	3162	3132	3107	3092
Reserves-to-import, in months	23	22	21	21	21	20	19	18		17
USD/XXX FX, aop	6.93	6.88	6.8	6.57	6.59	6.31	6.47	6.86	6.89	6.76
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35	4.35
Monetary base growth, %oya	11.8	6.71	5.09	5.28	4.17	6.27	4.84	3.88		-0.4
M1 growth, %oya	21.35	18.75	15.01	13.98	11.76	7.11	6.61	4		1.48
M3 growth, %oya	11.33	10.61	9.45	9.19	8.17	8.77	8.51	8.82		8.57
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	12.08	11.9	11.82	11.79	10.24	14.49	14.35
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-417.3	-452.2	-496	-463.3	-463.1	-451.1	-442	-459		-486.1
Budget balance, % GDP	4.64	7.98	7.63	5.95	3.83	9.06	7.5	5.22
Gross public debt, $bn	3258	3334	3654	4077	4272	4491	4607	4721		4721
Gross public debt, % GDP	29.13	29.42	31.79	34.53	34.83	35.16	34.64	34.88		34.88
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1416	1433	1558	1675	1711	1843	1871	1913
Gross external debt, % GDP	11.45	13.67	13.32	13.2	12.06	14.73	13.54	14.03
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	3.94	4.56	4.38	3.93	4.33	4.39	4.13	3.97	3.77	3.61
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	117.5	82.75	69.75	62.5	50		67.5	49.81	66.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.2 India (INR)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
India : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	6.76	6.09	5.59	6.32	6.97	7.74	8.2	7.11
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	2212	2276	2342	2420	2509	2602	2659	2675	2675
Private consumption, %oya	9.31	4.22	6.94	6.82	5.86	6.69	8.6	7.01
Public consumption, %oya	12.32	22.48	17.62	3.81	6.82	16.85	7.56	12.68
Domestic GFCF, %oya	8.71	5.95	0.82	6.05	9.06	14.42	10.03	12.47
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	3.41	3.89	1.46	3.28	5.21	4.28	4.92	3.7		2.33
Core CPI, %oya	4.63	4.49	3.81	4.38	5.28	5.37	6.19	5.39		5.55
Inflation target	4	4	4	4	4
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	264.4	275.9	281.5	289.6	299.2	303.4	313.8	321.2		325.5
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	361.5	384.4	413.6	431.4	449.8	464.7	479.1	501.9		510.3
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-97.1	-108.5	-132.2	-141.8	-150.6	-161.3	-165.4	-180.8		-184.9
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-12.1	-15.2	-29.8	-33.3	-39	-48.7	-49.6	-61.8
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	39.44	35.66	38.95	34.29	28.95	30.21	32.81	28.07
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4.1	8	18.7	14.4	31.1	22.2	1.3	-3.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	359	370	387	400	409	425	406	401	393
Reserves-to-import, in months	12	12	11	11	11	11	10	10		9
USD/XXX FX, aop	67.85	65.85	64.45	64.46	64.24	65.06	67.79	72.26	70.7	70.5
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	6.25	6.25	6.25	6	6	6	6.25	6.5	6.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	-28.87	-9.63	-5.06	-4	55.87	27.35	21.14	18.65	17
M1 growth, %oya	-18.86	3.05	1.34	1.57	44.71	21.83	18.07	14.57	13.59
M3 growth, %oya	6.2	10.11	7	5.56	10.02	9.15	9.76	9.39	10.17
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.12	6.78	3.85	5.13	8.52	9.29	12.62
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-81.3	-79.5	-99.2	-89.9	-100.9	-92	-87.6	-102.7		-102.1
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.38	-0.83	-11.33	-1.41	-2.86	0.65	-9.68	-3.64
Gross public debt, $bn	1033	1053	1112	1147	1178	1199	1177	1135
Gross public debt, % GDP	45.5	42.39	45.97	45.42	44.25	43.01	45	45.03
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	456	471	485	495	513	530	514	510
Gross external debt, % GDP	20.61	20.71	20.73	20.46	20.45	20.36	19.34	19.08
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	6.51	6.67	6.51	6.66	7.32	7.4	7.9	8.02	7.37	7.59
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.3 Indonesia (IDR)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Indonesia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	4.94	5.01	5.01	5.06	5.19	5.06	5.27	5.17
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	933	958	980	999	1015	1032	1043	1042	1042
Private consumption, %oya	5.03	5	5.02	4.95	4.98	5.01	5.22	5.08
Public consumption, %oya	-4.03	2.69	-1.92	3.48	3.81	2.71	5.21	6.28
Domestic GFCF, %oya	4.79	4.77	5.34	7.08	7.27	7.95	5.86	6.96
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	3.02	3.61	4.37	3.72	3.61	3.4	3.12	2.88	3.13
Core CPI, %oya	3.07	3.3	3.13	3	2.95	2.67	2.72	2.82	3.07
Inflation target	4	4	4	4	4
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	145.2	152.2	155.1	163.5	168.8	172.4	176.8	180.5		180.7
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	135.7	140.3	142	149.5	157	164.3	173.7	183.2		188.5
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	9.5	11.9	13.1	14	11.8	8	3.1	-2.7		-7.7
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-17	-14.5	-13.6	-13.2	-17.3	-20.7	-24.1	-28.3
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	16.14	16.07	17.27	18.09	19.29	19.79	18.15	14.69
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	16.8	19.7	20.2	20.3	24.3	16.8	9.8	6.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	116	122	123	129	130	126	120	115	121
Reserves-to-import, in months	10	10	10	10	10	9	8	8		7
USD/XXX FX, aop	13409.82	13343.26	13307.05	13307.57	13559.33	13760.73	14007.19	14869.7	14501.67	14048
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	3.9	11.1	14.72	7.78	8.94	7.25	-0.87	0.22	0.16
M1 growth, %oya	17.26	14.19	13.3	15.84	12.38	11.95	8.24	8.23		5.02
M3 growth, %oya	10.03	9.99	10.29	10.9	8.28	7.54	5.91	6.71		6.55
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	7.19	7.43	7.58	7.24	6.64	7.84	9.89
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-22.8	-20.1	-18.8	-26.9	-26	-24.4	-20.9	-19.5		-19
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.56	-3.27	-2.07	-2.87	-2.06	-2.45	-0.67	-2.34
Gross public debt, $bn	135	145	150	157	159	162	160	159	167
Gross public debt, % GDP	30.17	31.57	31.74	32.23	32.65	32.91	31.83	32.89
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	320	330	337	345	353	360	356	360
Gross external debt, % GDP	32.89	33.45	33.45	33.63	33.93	34.14	33.88	35.1
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	7.97	7.04	6.83	6.5	6.32	6.67	7.8	8.12	8.03	7.98
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	163	128	118	104	84.5		136.5	130	137.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.4 Malaysia (MYR)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Malaysia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	4.54	5.64	5.8	6.2	5.93	5.37	4.49	4.35
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	297	301	302	306	315	330	342	350	350
Private consumption, %oya	6.12	6.71	7.13	7.15	6.96	6.89	7.95	9.03
Public consumption, %oya	-4.25	7.48	3.3	3.93	6.83	0.43	3.14	5.19
Domestic GFCF, %oya	2.37	9.96	4.08	6.69	4.28	0.06	2.21	3.2
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.74	4.92	3.4	4.16	3.51	1.26	0.76	0.33		0.17
Core CPI, %oya	1.5	2.04	1.85	1.75	1.31	1.21	-0.17	0.26		0.26
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	190	196.5	201.8	209.4	217.8	227.7	237.6	242.9		247
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	168.7	176.6	180.5	186.5	194.8	200.6	209.4	214.8		217.9
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	21.3	19.9	21.3	22.9	23	27.1	28.1	28.1		29.1
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.1	6.7	8	9.1	9.5	12.2	11.2	9.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	3.36	4.57	1.29	2.71	3.79	4.45	5.95	3.88
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	0.7	-9.9	-6.3	-5.9	1.2	8.5	-5.5	-6.2
Foreign reserves, $bn	95	95	99	101	102	108	105	103	101
Reserves-to-import, in months	7	6	7	7	6	6	6	6		6
USD/XXX FX, aop	4.46	4.44	4.28	4.21	4.08	3.9	4	4.14	4.17	4.09
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	3	3	3	3	3	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.25	3.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	2.89	7.24	6.42	5.22	4.33	11.17	10	7.73		7.06
M1 growth, %oya	5.65	9.21	9.28	11.09	11.02	7.87	4.73	4.13		3.32
M3 growth, %oya	3.2	4.66	4.45	5.32	4.91	6.11	6.21	6.33		7.36
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	6.37	7.9	8.75	7.4	6.56	7.34	7.29
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-9.3	-9.6	-9.1	-8.4	-9.3	-7.6	-9.4	-10.4
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.17	-6.23	-4.17	0.23	-2.01	-3.3	-5.59	-1
Gross public debt, $bn	145	150	160	163	168	181	181	177
Gross public debt, % GDP	49.29	51.18	51.93	50.1	48.23	51.36	51.95	50.34
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	205	202	205	208	216	229	234	229
Gross external debt, % GDP	71.54	67.39	65.69	64.16	63.51	63.69	66.16	65.79
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	4.22	4.13	3.91	3.92	3.91	3.94	4.2	4.07	4.07	4.06
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	140	106	85.5	69	58		107.5	83.75	109.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.5 Thailand (THB)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Thailand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.01	3.42	3.94	4.33	3.99	4.92	4.62	3.35
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	412	420	429	441	456	476	492	499	499
Private consumption, %oya	2.29	3.12	2.88	3.36	3.44	3.67	4.54	4.98
Public consumption, %oya	2.89	-0.69	0.42	1.81	0.19	1.91	2.03	2.08
Domestic GFCF, %oya	2.11	1.73	0.29	1.23	0.33	3.35	3.66	3.93
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.13	0.76	-0.05	0.86	0.78	0.79	1.38	1.33	0.36
Core CPI, %oya	0.74	0.62	0.45	0.53	0.62	0.63	0.83	0.8	0.68
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	215.4	218	223.5	230.3	236.6	243	249.1	250.9		252.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	194.2	200.6	207.4	214.2	221.5	230.3	238	246.2		251.3
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	21.2	17.3	16.1	16.1	15.1	12.7	11	4.7		1.2
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	48.2	46.6	45.4	48.6	50.2	50.1	49	38.3
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	10.59	9.24	10.16	4.64	10.63	11.22	8.59	8.76
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.6	1.3	3.3	3.1	9.5	6.3	-0.8	-1.3
Foreign reserves, $bn	172	181	186	199	203	216	207	204	206
Reserves-to-import, in months	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10		10
USD/XXX FX, aop	35.79	34.88	34	33.15	32.65	31.27	32.48	32.61	32.7	31.91
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	8.46	8.21	9.5	8.38	8.83	9.72	5.66	1.58	3.21
M1 growth, %oya	4.84	6.97	7.38	9.76	9.37	7.61	5.32	3.72		2.63
M3 growth, %oya	4.22	3.33	4.37	4.82	5.01	6.16	5.12	4.81		4.72
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	3.74	3.92	4.33	4.14	3.87	4.55	5.13
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-14.3	-12.7	-13.4	-15.1	-16	-14.9	-15.7
Budget balance, % GDP	-11.11	-3.81	1.21	-0.42	-10.5	-2.37	0.5
Gross public debt, $bn	125	136	140	150	154	164	161	167		165
Gross public debt, % GDP	29.98	31.42	31.17	31.74	31.66	32.29	32.11	33.05
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	132	137	142	152	155	158	154	158
Gross external debt, % GDP	32.48	33.46	34.42	36.35	36.69	36.62	35.12	35.29
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.65	2.69	2.48	2.29	2.32	2.4	2.58	2.81	2.48	2.49
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	82.5	53	63	51	45.5		48.5	35.75	45
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.6 Taiwan (TWD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Taiwan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.79	2.94	2.5	3.36	3.48	3.15	3.29	2.27
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	531	542	553	564	575	586	593	592	592
Private consumption, %oya	2.11	1.97	2.32	2.64	3.23	2.55	2.29	1.8
Public consumption, %oya	2.49	-4.46	1.43	1.61	-1.23	6.63	5.87	-1.5
Domestic GFCF, %oya	5.34	4.88	1.07	-2.41	-3.26	0.36	0.02	5.4
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.69	0.18	1	0.49	1.22	1.59	1.4	1.72	-0.05
Core CPI, %oya	0.82	0.96	0.98	0.81	1.57	1.56	1.41	1.2	0.52
Inflation target	1	1	1	1	1
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	256.9	265.9	272.3	283.5	291.5	298.5	305.7	307.7	308.1
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	229.8	240.6	247.4	254.1	258.5	265.2	272	281.2	285.9
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	27	25.3	24.9	29.4	33	33.3	33.7	26.5	22.2
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	72.8	71.3	71.6	76.8	82.9	84.3	83.4	75.7
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	8.69	8.29	8.42	6.09	8.26	8.34	4.58	6.68
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.6	6.7	9.1	-4.1	3.9	-2.9	-13.6	-6.9
Foreign reserves, $bn	434	438	442	447	452	457	457	460	462
Reserves-to-import, in months	23	22	21	21	21	21	20	20	19
USD/XXX FX, aop	32	30.66	30.26	30.13	29.98	29.21	30.07	30.75	30.81	30.8
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375	1.375
Monetary base growth, %oya	5.92	4.63	4.22	4.77	4.84	6.31	7.25	5.81		5.6
M1 growth, %oya	5.79	4.4	4.87	4.55	3.48	5.3	5.42	5.45		5.43
M3 growth, %oya	3.55	3.59	3.57	3.58	3.56	3.45	3.76	3.33		3.22
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.91	4.61	5.13	5.76	4.76	5.29	7.42	5.98		5.83
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	10.2	10.9	13.6	12.7	10.9	12.2	15.7	13.9		12.7
Budget balance, % GDP	-0.81	7.81	2.55	-0.24	-1.93	8.01	4.84	-1.48
Gross public debt, $bn	23	26	26	26	26	26	25	24		24
Gross public debt, % GDP	4.33	4.51	4.55	4.46	4.41	4.24	4.18	4.24
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	172	182	170	176	182	192	199	203
Gross external debt, % GDP	31.41	32.55	30.05	30.33	30.73	31.85	33.32	35.19
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	1.2	1.1	1.08	1.03	0.96	0.96	0.96	0.82	0.82
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.7 Korea (KRW)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Korea : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.56	2.87	2.81	3.78	2.79	2.79	2.82	1.96
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1417	1446	1474	1498	1533	1573	1605	1617	1617
Private consumption, %oya	1.4	2.1	2.38	2.58	3.36	3.51	2.85	2.51
Public consumption, %oya	3.53	2.38	2.82	4.3	4.13	5.81	4.83	4.58
Domestic GFCF, %oya	7.85	11.04	9.96	9.2	5.03	3.67	-1.28	-6.58
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.34	2.28	1.81	2	1.41	1.22	1.48	2.09	1.32
Core CPI, %oya	1.24	1.46	1.35	1.58	1.39	1.28	1.24	1.32	1.26
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	495.4	512.3	533.3	562.5	573.7	586.7	591.3	593.9	605.5
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	406.2	428.8	447.3	465.7	478.5	494.4	509.7	519.2	535
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	89.2	83.5	86	96.8	95.2	92.3	81.6	74.7	70.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	99.2	91.5	80.9	83.9	78.5	71.1	72.5	74.9		76
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	17.86	19.03	18	20.58	14.62	9.73	14.4	18.78		22.36
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-3.8	15.5	21.4	10.6	17.7	12.7	12.6	28.1		17.6
Foreign reserves, $bn	371	375	381	385	389	397	400	403	404
Reserves-to-import, in months	11	11	10	10	10	10	9	9	9
USD/XXX FX, aop	1184.35	1133.83	1131.03	1132.99	1084.91	1071.76	1093.87	1119.48	1122.52	1116.4
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.25	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	9.13	12.66	8.71	12.13	8.68	7.36	11.39	9.94		10.55
M1 growth, %oya	12.29	9.77	9.77	11.74	6.83	7.27	5.61	1.93		1.96
M3 growth, %oya	7.94	7.02	6.66	6.32	6.61	6.98	7.18	6.95		7.35
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	5.54	5.36	5.61	6.24	5.59	6.12	5.86
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	15.8	23.6	19.6	18.5	20.6	23	20	22.6		22.7
Budget balance, % GDP	2.04	-0.96	0.41	3.32	2.55	-0.42	-0.39	3.85
Gross public debt, $bn	500	538	557	554	578	606	614	592		592
Gross public debt, % GDP	35.27	37.2	37.8	36.96	37.71	38.55	38.26	36.64		36.61
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	384	408	408	411	419	434	441	450
Gross external debt, % GDP	26.74	27.62	26.87	26.31	26.59	26.42	26.77	27.97
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.07	2.19	2.22	2.38	2.47	2.63	2.73	2.73	2.73
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	43.5	51	53.25	74	53		48.5	32.81	39
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.8 Philippines (PHP)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Philippines : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	6.67	6.45	6.64	7.15	6.5	6.58	6.18	6.11
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	305	307	308	309	313	318	322	325	325
Private consumption, %oya	6.66	5.87	5.96	5.37	6.22	5.7	5.93	5.16
Public consumption, %oya	5.03	0.15	7.6	8.33	12.19	13.55	11.91	14.26
Domestic GFCF, %oya	18.96	13.75	6.98	7.78	9.35	8.81	21.2	16.49
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	2.23	3.07	2.49	3.04	2.91	4.34	5.23	6.7	5.13
Core CPI, %oya	2.34	2.52	1.94	2.31	1.92	3.37	4.17	4.33	4.04
Inflation target	3	3	3	3	3
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	57.4	60.8	64.1	66.7	68.4	67.5	67.3	67.5		67.8
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	84.1	87.8	89.6	91.4	95.7	97.2	101.7	106.9		109.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-26.7	-27	-25.5	-24.7	-27.2	-29.7	-34.4	-39.4		-41.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-1.2	-2.3	-0.8	0.4	-2.2	-2.2	-5.6	-9.6
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	5.88	5.78	5.44	5.56	6.54	6.13	7.12	7.49
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-0.3	-2	-1.7	-2.1	-0.8	1.6	0.4	1.8
Foreign reserves, $bn	81	81	81	81	82	81	78	75	78
Reserves-to-import, in months	12	11	11	11	10	10	9	8		8
USD/XXX FX, aop	49.81	50.27	49.9	50.99	50.35	52.09	53.1	53.97	52.78	52.14
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	3	3	3	3	3	3	3.5	4.5	4.75	4.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	11.78	15.81	20.95	15	13.74	11.37	5.86	4.79		7.78
M1 growth, %oya	15.06	14.78	15.99	16.67	15.68	17.76	15.24	11.4		9.46
M3 growth, %oya	12.76	11.74	13.41	14.82	11.89	14.4	11.81	9.76		8.39
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	17.33	20.17	19.01	21.08	19.41	18.52	19.11	17.6		16.76
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-7.3	-6.6	-7.9	-7.1	-7	-8.2	-7.6	-9.9		-11.1
Budget balance, % GDP	-3.4	-2.32	-1.81	-1.53	-3.08	-3.89	-0.94	-4.39
Gross public debt, $bn	122	123	129	126	132	132	132	133		136
Gross public debt, % GDP	37	43.34	40.65	42.19	37.2	43.93	40.46	42.39
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	75	74	72	72	73	73	72	76
Gross external debt, % GDP	24.53	24.17	23.14	23	22.86	22.51	22.07	23.16
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	4.64	4.63	4.65	4.61	4.93	6.05	6.46	6.49	7.01	6.53
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps	111.5	82	77	66	58		91	69.25	87.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.9 HK (HKD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
HK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.35	4.37	3.91	3.6	3.35	4.59	3.54	2.87
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	321	326	332	337	341	348	353	359	359
Private consumption, %oya	4.09	3.66	5.81	6.31	6.31	8.79	6.01	5.18
Public consumption, %oya	3.16	2.83	2.98	4.46	3.21	3.85	4.33	3.26
Domestic GFCF, %oya	5.98	5.75	7.59	-2.07	3.1	4.2	1.15	8.21
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.17	0.48	1.96	1.45	1.73	2.6	2.4	2.68		2.57
Core CPI, %oya	0.39	0.19	1.76	1.17	1.55	2.13	1.83	2.21		2.3
Inflation target
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	462.6	473.1	481	489.8	497.6	507.4	517.1	528.4		534
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	517	529.2	539	548.3	559.5	571.6	584.6	600.6		606.8
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-54.4	-56.1	-58	-58.6	-61.9	-64.2	-67.5	-72.1		-72.8
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	12.7	11.9	13.1	15.6	15.3	14.9	14.2	12.7
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	57.71	58.02	47.65	24.97	23.95	16.7	26.11	38.53
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	7.8	23.2	31.4	33.1	41	26.2	16.1	14.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	386	396	408	419	431	440	432	426		423
Reserves-to-import, in months	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9		8
USD/XXX FX, aop	7.76	7.77	7.8	7.81	7.81	7.84	7.85	7.84	7.82	7.84
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1	1.25	1.5	1.5	1.75	2	2.25	2.5	2.75	2.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	2.72	2.9	3.43	3.39	3.13	4.75	-1.16	-3.73	-3.22
M1 growth, %oya	12.32	7.33	10	7.12	9.82	10.98	9.61	2.17		-0.33
M3 growth, %oya	7.69	10.14	12.96	8.86	9.98	7.78	5.02	4.74		3.46
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	6.95	10.8	15.92	16.68	15.98	14.77	9.05
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	6.5	7.1	8	7.2	5.8	8.3	7.2	1.9
Budget balance, % GDP
Gross public debt, $bn
Gross public debt, % GDP
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1356	1441	1515	1525	1576	1629	1664	1655
Gross external debt, % GDP	412.63	430.14	445.44	445.73	453.96	450.88	457.54	454.63
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	1.97	1.67	1.49	1.71	1.83	1.99	2.25	2.47	2.01	2.01
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

3.10 Singapore (SGD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Singapore : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.72	2.53	2.79	5.51	3.62	4.5	4.09	2.3	2.2
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	310	313	314	318	324	333	341	344	344
Private consumption, %oya	0.15	-0.92	2.65	5.34	5.46	3.22	3.67	3.44
Public consumption, %oya	4.54	4.04	5.27	7.14	0.45	8.38	2.49	2.63
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-4.07	-3.17	-3.54	-2.68	2.23	-0.93	3.07	-1.36
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	0.16	0.66	0.52	0.38	0.38	0.24	0.56	0.72		0.29
Core CPI, %oya	1.23	1.2	1.54	1.46	1.32	1.52	1.69	1.84		1.68
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	338.2	350.4	355.2	363.4	373.4	382	394.8	406.3		413.9
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	292	301.8	307.8	317	327.8	335.8	348.4	361.8		369.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	46.2	48.6	47.4	46.4	45.6	46.2	46.5	44.5		44.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	59.1	62.6	60.7	61	61	62.4	64.9	63.6
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	46.49	52.23	43.17	39.78	39.06	31.17	30.59	38.86
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	5	7.6	9.4	9.6	13.2	6.8	2.7	-0.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	247	260	266	275	280	287	288	291	288
Reserves-to-import, in months	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10		9
USD/XXX FX, aop	1.44	1.4	1.38	1.35	1.35	1.31	1.35	1.37	1.37	1.35
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.723	0.753	0.817	1.001	1.325	1.31	1.402	1.517	1.763	1.764
Monetary base growth, %oya	13.17	12.63	15.38	13.33	9.9	12.1	10.15	8.21		7.11
M1 growth, %oya	7.67	8.9	10.78	9.22	6.34	8.17	4.45	1.24		0.43
M3 growth, %oya	7.69	7.19	6.97	5.28	3.18	2.81	2.73	3.46		3.51
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	3.55	3.76	5.28	4.32	7.32	7.21	2.56
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-3.3	-1.3	-1	-0.8	-0.9	1.5	3.5	2
Budget balance, % GDP
Gross public debt, $bn	322	341	349	367	373	393	391	391
Gross public debt, % GDP	104.02	108.83	111.14	115.7	115.03	117.95	114.71	113.45
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1326	1347	1349	1395	1447	1496	1487	1450
Gross external debt, % GDP	434.9	427.18	421.03	421.92	421.86	427.16	435.29	422.64
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.46	2.23	2.08	2.14	2	2.29	2.52	2.49	2.03	2.17
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4 G10 markets

4.1 Australia (AUD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Australia : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.74	2.19	2.14	2.82	2.38	3.01	3.12	2.77
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1269	1308	1331	1366	1387	1412	1432	1423	1423
Private consumption, %oya	2.6	2.04	2.38	2.48	2.85	2.8	2.88	2.54
Public consumption, %oya	4.97	5.22	3.98	2.27	4.41	4.13	3.86	4.77
Domestic GFCF, %oya	0.28	0.43	1.79	6.76	3.31	4.25	3.54	1.32
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.48	2.13	1.93	1.83	1.91	1.9	2.08	1.89
Core CPI, %oya	1.28	1.46	1.55	1.9	1.9	1.98	1.79	1.24
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	192.5	208.5	219.3	230.2	231.1	236.1	243.6	248.9		254.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	189.3	193.3	199.1	214.7	221.4	228.9	233.5	224.8		228.7
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	3.2	15.1	20.2	15.6	9.8	7.1	10.2	24.1		25.6
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-41.2	-34.4	-29.4	-28.3	-36	-38.9	-39.7	-36.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	39.35	37.18	41.63	49.9	45.27	48.12	60.56	54.99
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	6.1	19.6	33.3	52.8	66.7	91	93.8	63.5
Foreign reserves, $bn	51	55	59	53	64	56	53	51	51
Reserves-to-import, in months	3	3	4	3	3	3	3	3		2
USD/XXX FX, aop	1.36	1.31	1.32	1.26	1.31	1.29	1.34	1.39	1.4	1.39
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	2.92	5.84	5.9	6.97	6.48	3.28	3.65	3.31		4.23
M1 growth, %oya	6.53	6.86	7.33	6.56	5.37	3.24	0.21	0.86		-0.88
M3 growth, %oya	6.67	6.74	7.81	6.8	4.47	3.73	1.88	2.16		1.92
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.03	2.93	2.92	2.85	2.97	4.27	3.52
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-26.1	-25.4	-27.6	-22.1	-18.1	-14.2	-3.6	2		6
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.1	-1.55	-0.07	-3.68	0.1	-0.26	2.82	-2.18
Gross public debt, $bn	525	563	572	607	599	618	602	583
Gross public debt, % GDP	40.62	41.05	42.14	42.1	42.86	42.66	42.62	42.51
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1419	1440	1450	1525	1502	1563	1531	1463
Gross external debt, % GDP	109.9	105.02	106.84	105.71	107.45	107.93	108.36	106.63
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.77	2.7	2.6	2.84	2.63	2.6	2.63	2.67	2.32	2.31
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps		25.25	22	23	16		18	14.75	24.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.2 Canada (CAD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Canada : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.81	2.23	3.81	3.03	2.87	2.27	1.9	2.06
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	1528	1563	1571	1608	1649	1683	1717	1718	1718
Private consumption, %oya	2.22	3.02	3.82	3.93	3.71	3.01	2.43	1.85
Public consumption, %oya	2.25	2.11	1.47	2.17	2.76	2.94	2.96	2.95
Domestic GFCF, %oya	-3.49	0.51	1.83	2.69	6.85	5.11	4.3	1.74
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.5	1.56	1.01	1.55	1.87	2.31	2.45	2.22		1.68
Core CPI, %oya	1.81	1.71	1.37	1.21	1.7	1.92	1.75	1.83		1.74
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	393.5	403.8	413.2	417.5	423.4	428.7	438.2	449.2		452.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	412.9	419.5	425	430.9	442.6	452.8	462.3	467.3		469.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-19.4	-15.7	-11.7	-13.4	-19.2	-24.1	-24	-18.1		-17
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-49.1	-45.6	-41	-41.5	-46.4	-50.4	-52.4	-46.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	34.32	35.22	25.07	29.19	27.9	32.39	38.26	34.56
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	129.6	135.7	126.1	137.7	146.6	120.9	114.1	91.3
Foreign reserves, $bn	83	83	85	84	87	83	82	81		82
Reserves-to-import, in months	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		2
USD/XXX FX, aop	1.34	1.34	1.33	1.23	1.28	1.29	1.31	1.3	1.35	1.33
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.5	0.5	0.5	1	1	1.25	1.25	1.5	1.75	1.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	5.85	5.37	6.75	6.59	5.94	5.86	4.14	6.63		4.79
M1 growth, %oya	9.65	10.1	11.61	8.36	7.58	6.59	4.18	4.71		4.75
M3 growth, %oya	7.6	7.77	6.31	4.4	4.61	4.47	4.39	5.52		5.49
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.09	6.04	5.89	5.47	6.59	5.49	5.11
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-14.7	-16.4	-15.6	-15.3	-12.8	-12.8	-9.5	-7		-7.5
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.37	-1.18	-0.53	-0.75	-0.72	-0.84	0.08	-0.15
Gross public debt, $bn	1330	1336	1374	1455	1411	1390	1384	1389
Gross public debt, % GDP	86.01	84.88	85.79	83.57	82.82	82.03	82.04	80.75
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1774	1779	1798	1920	1941	1940	1940	1957
Gross external debt, % GDP	114.68	113.03	112.31	110.24	113.88	114.52	114.98	113.78
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	1.72	1.62	1.76	2.1	2.04	2.09	2.17	2.42	1.96	1.96
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.3 Switzerland (CHF)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Switzerland : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.15	0.96	1.37	1.74	2.64	3.18	3.18	2.15
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	670	671	669	673	679	693	701	703	703
Private consumption, %oya	1.85	1.38	1.15	1.36	0.74	1.06	1.15	0.71
Public consumption, %oya	1.17	0.68	0.56	0.94	1.34	1.41	1.4	0.79
Domestic GFCF, %oya	3.14	3.21	2.32	3.59	4.24	3.32	3.6	1.21
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	-0.01	0.57	0.2	0.65	0.84	0.8	1.15	0.99	0.69
Core CPI, %oya	-0.32	0.12	0.21	0.51	0.71	0.58	0.48	0.37	0.31
Inflation target	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	213.8	216.8	217.1	219	224.1	230	235.4	235.4		238.6
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	176.3	177.8	179.4	182.6	188.8	198.2	204.2	206.4		206.2
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	37.5	39	37.7	36.4	35.3	31.8	31.2	29		32.4
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	63.3	64.5	62.5	54.5	45.4	57.3	63.5	70.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	27.98	6.44	-50.05	-56.31	-74.51	-21.84	51.59	60.88
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-20.5	-15.7	-44.7	-44.4	-36.4	-40.4	-13.5	-18.9
Foreign reserves, $bn	641	689	731	752	768	778	759	763		755
Reserves-to-import, in months	44	46	49	49	49	47	45	44		44
USD/XXX FX, aop	1.02	1	0.97	0.96	0.99	0.95	0.99	0.97	0.99	0.98
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75	-0.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	13.04	12.19	13.69	6.42	3.99	-0.37	-2.84	0.58		0.08
M1 growth, %oya	6.05	5.31	6.66	6.79	7.16	6.98	5.05	4.83		5.04
M3 growth, %oya	3.01	3.02	4.01	4.27	3.53	3.24	2.29	2.29		2.83
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.76	4.12	3.72	4.1	5.35	5.49	5.57
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	0.4	2.7	4.1	7.4	4.4	4.7	7.3	5.3		3.9
Budget balance, % GDP	-6.9	5.28	5.02	1.02	-8.26	5.08	6.06	-0.11
Gross public debt, $bn	97	110	106	101	107	111	107	103
Gross public debt, % GDP	14.95	16.66	15.47	14.58	15.55	15.44	15.39	14.38
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	1746	1773	1852	1885	1898	2007	1921	1902
Gross external debt, % GDP	269.46	268.12	269.49	270.87	276.84	278.17	275.21	266.13
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	-0.19	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	-0.15	0.03	-0.06	0.04	-0.25	-0.15
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.4 Eurozone (EUR)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Eurozone : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	2.09	2.06	2.46	2.79	2.7	2.4	2.15	1.62
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	11981	11979	11987	12268	12670	13230	13611	13678	13678
Private consumption, %oya	1.85	1.61	1.85	1.97	1.57	1.69	1.38	1.03
Public consumption, %oya	1.62	1	1.12	1.35	1.2	0.97	1.07	0.9
Domestic GFCF, %oya	4.22	2.67	3.57	2.85	2.52	3.42	2.91	3.73
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.14	1.54	1.26	1.53	1.35	1.34	1.96	2.07	1.58
Core CPI, %oya	0.9	0.7	1.14	1.11	0.94	1.03	0.95	0.91		0.97
Inflation target	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	2267.9	2308.5	2323.7	2389.3	2481.7	2583.9	2661.8	2683.8		2703.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	1972.8	2021.9	2057.5	2124	2214.6	2309.6	2388	2436.6		2461
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	295	286.6	266.2	265.3	267	274.3	273.7	247.2		242.4
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	383	383.1	355.4	386.4	417.2	449	482.8	447.1		432.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	381.34	514.02	398.87	210.31	133.42	-271.2	-282.95	-62.63		-100.93
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-98.4	7.6	217.8	303.6	416.3	545.2	299.4	238.2		250
Foreign reserves, $bn	344	346	348	351	353	370	371	370		372
Reserves-to-import, in months	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2		2
USD/XXX FX, aop	0.95	0.94	0.89	0.84	0.84	0.81	0.86	0.86	0.88	0.87
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Monetary base growth, %oya	37.3	37.86	44.25	36.2	32.65	23.49	9.84	7.18	2.51
M1 growth, %oya	8.48	8.74	8.9	9.11	8.24	7.27	7.6	6.98		6.93
M3 growth, %oya	5.11	5.37	4.75	4.91	4.2	3.24	4.39	3.6		3.9
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	2.7	2.66	1.5	1.19	1.41	1.21	2.06
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-206.4	-167.8	-167.8	-167.8	-167.8
Budget balance, % GDP	-1.7	-1.3	-1.3	-1.3	-1.3
Gross public debt, $bn	8610	8840	9392	9970	9836	10377	9871
Gross public debt, % GDP	75.5	75.8	76	75.4	74.2	74.4	74.2
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	14932	15630	15960	16826	16442	17436	16772	16848
Gross external debt, % GDP	129.56	132.54	127.24	125.35	122.1	123.33	124.33	124.38
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	0.2	0.32	0.46	0.46	0.42	0.49	0.3	0.47	0.24
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.5 UK (GBP)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
UK : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.7	1.81	1.91	1.96	1.61	1.25	1.41	1.5
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	2666	2598	2548	2573	2643	2743	2806	2825	2825
Private consumption, %oya	3.14	2.78	2.34	1.65	1.99	1.6	1.76	1.79
Public consumption, %oya	0.37	-0.67	-0.09	0	-0.01	0.76	-0.01	-0.37
Domestic GFCF, %oya	2.45	3.5	3.84	2.62	3.9	2.23	-0.53	-0.31
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.56	2.32	2.64	2.96	2.97	2.46	2.45	2.42		2.31
Core CPI, %oya	1.62	1.81	2.42	2.65	2.5	2.26	1.92	1.89		1.84
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	404.2	406.4	408.1	423.7	436.8	453.7	463	466		468.4
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	583.3	583.5	585.5	594.8	613.5	632.8	645.2	649.5		652.4
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-41.8	-40.5	-40.5	-29.5	-30.7	-29.5	-30.1	-34.6		-38.1
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-140.2	-119.5	-110	-90.2	-88	-94.4	-95.6	-108.4
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	265.55	214.36	200.47	205.66	122.25	101.07	122.24	79.77
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-29.3	102.9	81.1	107.8	236.2	202.5	227.2	226.2
Foreign reserves, $bn	124	129	135	137	138	144	143	142		155
Reserves-to-import, in months	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3		3
USD/XXX FX, aop	0.8	0.81	0.78	0.75	0.75	0.72	0.75	0.77	0.79	0.78
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.75	0.75	0.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	17.97	27.24	32.6	30.78	21.08	12.55	9.29	8.98	4.48
M1 growth, %oya	11.07	8.43	4.97	5.78	4.89	3.11	4.39	3.52		4.59
M3 growth, %oya	9.87	10.69	7.59	6.97	6.19	2.89	3.45	2.31		2.95
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	7.23	5.81	4.13	3.19	3.85	5.37	4.97
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-64.6	-48.1	-43.5	-35.5	-31.6	-36.8	-29.2	-25.2		-22.5
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.11	6.01	-1.85	0.59	-1.03	4.92	-0.93	0.98
Gross public debt, $bn	2133	2098	2195	2293	2365	2434	2359
Gross public debt, % GDP	85.38	83.81	84.17	83.74	84.93	83.36	84.18
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	7594	7723	7979	8403	8578	8918	8458	8226
Gross external debt, % GDP	303.9	308.46	305.97	306.85	307.99	305.41	301.79	295.58
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	1.24	1.14	1.26	1.36	1.19	1.35	1.28	1.57	1.28	1.29
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps							24	30		29.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.6 Japan (JPY)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Japan : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.23	1.45	1.76	2.14	2.35	1.18	1.43	0.01
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	4935	4960	4942	4870	4861	4940	4979	4970	4970
Private consumption, %oya	0.34	0.49	2.03	0.7	1.19	0.32	0.04	0.69
Public consumption, %oya	0.46	-0.33	0.47	0.35	0.53	0.44	0.63	0.62
Domestic GFCF, %oya	0.56	2.1	3.36	3.52	3.15	2.01	1.99	-0.63
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.7	1.1	1.1	0.7	1.19		0.89
Core CPI, %oya	0.1	0	0	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.3		0.3
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	645.1	660.3	671.8	682	698.3	715.3	731.2	735.5		740.3
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	607.7	623.2	641.7	650.9	672.1	693	708.3	728.1		746.8
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	37.3	37.1	30	31.1	26.2	22.3	22.9	7.4		-6.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	194.8	195	191.2	195	196.2	197.7	202	190.1		177.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	134.39	157.62	172.09	153.42	149.75	129.36	129.55	131.33		145.4
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	29	97.3	122.3	142.7	153.3	88.1	110.3	73.1		102.6
Foreign reserves, $bn	1188	1200	1219	1235	1232	1236	1228	1230	1239
Reserves-to-import, in months	23	23	23	23	22	21	21	20		20
USD/XXX FX, aop	116.12	112.91	110.97	110.81	112.93	106.1	110.14	112.05	112.16	108.48
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Monetary base growth, %oya	23.33	20.21	17.18	15.38	11.4	9.03	7.39	5.82	4.9
M1 growth, %oya	9.08	8.72	7.65	7.65	6.79	6.22	6.5	6.19		5.5
M3 growth, %oya	3.35	3.54	3.33	3.42	3.06	2.62	2.66	2.46		2.09
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	2.65	2.79	2.64	2.5	2.25	1.72	2.66
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-21.1	-27.2	-22.6	-22.1	-5.2	-4.6	-1.6	4.8	19
Budget balance, % GDP	-0.37	-1	-1.36	1.15	0.79	-0.79	-1.05	1.68
Gross public debt, $bn	9184	9490	9723	9751	9614	10253	9888	9744		9767
Gross public debt, % GDP	198.53	198.82	198.74	197.07	197.14	198.62	197.8	199.69
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	3440	3439	3532	3702	3599	3902	3878	3985
Gross external debt, % GDP	74.37	72.06	72.2	74.82	73.81	75.58	77.58	81.67
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	0.04	0.06	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.12	0	0.01
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps				40.5			24.5	21		24.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.7 Norway (NOK)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Norway : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.87	1.35	2.45	3.79	1.97	1.86	1.51	1.56
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	372	383	382	392	400	410	425	430	430
Private consumption, %oya	1.28	1.81	2.51	3.13	2.68	1.99	2.69	1.62
Public consumption, %oya	3.29	2.49	2.17	2.22	3.11	2.54	2.28	1.93
Domestic GFCF, %oya	9.06	7.87	4.27	0.4	2.22	-4.87	1.2	2.41
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	3.47	2.44	1.93	1.63	1.63	2.19	2.55	3.4	3.49
Core CPI, %oya	2.47	1.66	1.64	0.96	1.35	1.15	1.14	1.91	2.1
Inflation target	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.5
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	89.5	95	97.2	101	104.1	107.4	113.6	119		122.5
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	75	77.1	78.5	78.2	82.9	86	89.3	89.8		87.6
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	14.5	17.9	18.7	22.8	21.2	21.5	24.3	29.2		34.9
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	14.8	17.1	21.5	23.5	22.4	24.2	27.1	34.1
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	-17.54	-26.82	-24.28	-20.72	6.04	-8.12	-12.43	-12.11
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	5.5	1.6	-0.6	-3.2	1.6	-1.4	8.3	10
Foreign reserves, $bn	60	61	65	65	66	67	66	65		62
Reserves-to-import, in months	10	10	10	10	10	9	9	9		9
USD/XXX FX, aop	8.57	8.51	8.46	7.84	8.32	7.77	8.12	8.25	8.64	8.54
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.75	0.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	-7.34	3.43	55.44	30.81	7.52	10.42	-26.19	-33.85		-9.38
M1 growth, %oya	4.29	5.69	4.6	4.22	5.54	8.86	9.82	8.88		7.87
M3 growth, %oya	5.02	7.25	6.6	5.8	6.06	5.47	6.33	5.38		4.91
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	2.18	2.77	3.41	2.73	2.5	2.37	1.48
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-10	-13.2	-14.2	-12.6	-6.6	-4.7	-2.7	1.5		2.1
Budget balance, % GDP	-7.37	-3.09	-1.62	-0.73	-1.16	-1.19	0.35	3.46
Gross public debt, $bn	60	74	59	76	63	82	77	75
Gross public debt, % GDP	16.13	19.19	15.34	18.06	15.5	18.51	17.82	16.96
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	616	640	634	678	644	672	644	635
Gross external debt, % GDP	165.05	166.5	163.83	160.78	158.91	152.42	148.05	144.44
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	1.63	1.62	1.63	1.58	1.58	1.84	1.76	1.92	1.75	1.75
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps							8.5	9.5		10
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.8 New Zealand (NZD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
New Zealand : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	3.45	3.08	3.06	3.03	3.37	3.04	3.15	2.6
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	185	191	195	198	200	203	206	203	203
Private consumption, %oya	5.53	6.11	4.74	4.08	4.17	3.15	3.12	3.25
Public consumption, %oya	3.12	2.64	2.66	3.77	2.56	2.3	3.7	0.46
Domestic GFCF, %oya	4.27	2.21	1.71	3.47	6.31	7.22	5.58	2.26
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.33	2.15	1.73	1.93	1.62	1.1	1.5	1.89
Core CPI, %oya	1.53	2.35	1.73	1.62	1.41	1.2	1.7	2.29
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	33.8	34.5	35.5	36.5	38.1	39	39.6	39.8		40
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	36.1	37.2	38.2	38.7	40.1	41.5	42.6	43.4		43.6
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2.3	-2.7	-2.7	-2.1	-2	-2.5	-3	-3.6		-3.6
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-4.2	-5	-5.1	-5.3	-5.9	-6.1	-6.8	-7.2
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	2.11	1.32	2.66	1.96	2.16	1.69	-0.3	0.81
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	12.2	10.1	5.7	4.8	1.6	3.9	6.4	1.6
Foreign reserves, $bn	18	19	20	21	21	22	22	20	18
Reserves-to-import, in months	6	6	6	7	6	6	6	6		5
USD/XXX FX, aop	1.42	1.43	1.38	1.38	1.44	1.38	1.44	1.52	1.47	1.46
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75
Monetary base growth, %oya	4.04	2.34	4.91	7.16	8.85	10.51	8.48	9.67		7.41
M1 growth, %oya	9.58	6.9	7.54	9.32	8.72	12.06	11.47	10.14		8.17
M3 growth, %oya	7.66	6.35	6.28	6.97	7.3	7.23	7.11	7.65		6.41
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	6.44	6.48	5.79	4.87	4.06	4.14	4.58
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	1.2	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9	4	4	4	4
Budget balance, % GDP	0.68	1.43	1.43	1.43	1.43
Gross public debt, $bn	57	57	59	60	55	59	57	55
Gross public debt, % GDP	29.73	29.67	29.58	29.23	27.27	28.37	28.36	28.38
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	261	262	273	278	272	285	281	270
Gross external debt, % GDP	136.4	135.32	136.23	134.71	135.3	136.24	138.78	138.67
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	3.33	3.19	2.98	2.97	2.72	2.72	2.85	2.61	2.37	2.33
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps				23.25			20	18.5	25.5
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.9 Sweden (SEK)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
Sweden : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.37	1.58	2.52	2.6	2.74	3.32	2.62	1.66
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	513	512	509	520	537	556	565	557	557
Private consumption, %oya	2.05	1.81	2.35	2.39	2.66	2.11	2.46	0.38
Public consumption, %oya	2.02	0.9	-0.45	0.66	0.6	0.76	1.25	0.57
Domestic GFCF, %oya	1.78	4.85	5.34	8.76	6.75	8.11	5.07	2.29
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	1.74	1.26	1.72	2.12	1.74	1.9	2.07	2.32		1.96
Core CPI, %oya	1.94	1.47	1.86	2.27	1.87	2.04	2.23	2.5		2.12
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	139.3	141.7	142.8	147.2	153	159.4	164.2	165.2		166.8
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	141	143.8	144.2	148.6	154.2	161	167.6	168.6		170.3
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-1.7	-2.1	-1.5	-1.4	-1.3	-1.7	-3.4	-3.4		-3.5
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	19.2	17.8	19.2	18.7	17	15.8	12.6	11.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	17.58	19.28	20.6	8.11	11.89	9.11	8.92	14.07
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	-2	6.9	7.3	22.3	26	14.6	14.8	17.3
Foreign reserves, $bn	55	54	55	57	57	57	57	56		56
Reserves-to-import, in months	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	4		4
USD/XXX FX, aop	9.21	8.92	8.68	8.01	8.39	8.24	8.81	8.95	9.04	8.93
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	-0.25	-0.25
Monetary base growth, %oya	48.55	36.22	28.3	25.99	11.47	8.8	4.72	9.2		7.96
M1 growth, %oya	9.01	11.49	11.67	9.82	8.18	6.74	7.61	7.12		7.67
M3 growth, %oya	7.54	10.4	11.21	10.19	8.04	6.33	5.43	4.47		4.76
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	3.12	7	7.3	6.61	6.77	8.41	7.83
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	10.7	7.1	6.4	6.4	7.1	9.3	10.3	10.9		10.2
Budget balance, % GDP	-4.88	3.88	2.38	3.39	-3.78	4.89	2.94	4.12
Gross public debt, $bn	146	149	151	155	158	149	140	135	140
Gross public debt, % GDP	30.11	29.53	28.67	27.11	28.54	25.67	25.78	25.32
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	843	970	956	1039	983	1056	1015	985
Gross external debt, % GDP	173.63	191.66	181.51	181.89	177.06	182.55	187.25	184.97
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	0.54	0.6	0.65	0.91	0.77	0.68	0.49	0.63	0.46	0.39
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps							9	9.5		10
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

4.10 U.S. (USD)

	2016	2017				2018				Latest
U.S. : macro factors as of 2019-01-13
	16Q4	17Q1	17Q2	17Q3	17Q4	18Q1	18Q2	18Q3	18Q4	18Q4(p)
National Accounts
Real GDP, %oya	1.88	1.94	2.12	2.34	2.47	2.58	2.87	3
Nominal GDP, annualized, $bn	18707	18896	19075	19272	19486	19705	19968	20236	20236
Private consumption, %oya	2.77	2.61	2.47	2.36	2.7	2.38	2.6	2.93
Public consumption, %oya	0.96	0.22	0.03	-0.51	-0.13	0.57	1.11	1.76
Domestic GFCF, %oya	2.1	3.32	3.99	3.81	4.97	4.61	5.21	5.23
Prices
Headline CPI, %oya	2.07	2.38	1.63	2.23	2.11	2.36	2.87	2.28	1.91
Core CPI, %oya	2.2	2	1.7	1.69	1.78	2.12	2.26	2.17	2.18
Inflation target	2	2	2	2	2
Balance of payments
Exports, 12m-trailing, $bn	1451	1476.8	1497.8	1516.5	1546.3	1576.1	1619.1	1650		1660.7
Imports, 12m-trailing, $bn	2187.6	2224.3	2263.3	2290.1	2342	2391.9	2441.4	2504.2		2529.7
Trade balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-502	-511.7	-526.3	-537.3	-552.3	-571.3	-569.2	-595.1		-603.6
C/A balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-432.9	-427	-449.1	-439	-449.1	-458.1	-442.5	-466.9
Net FDI, 12m-trailing, $bn	494.45	446.8	357.75	334.38	354.83	300.13	219.89	235.11
Portfolio flows, 12m-trailing, $bn	231.3	444.3	702.7	779.2	799.2	940.6	698	416.2
Foreign reserves, $bn	106	108	111	113	112	115	114	113		112
Reserves-to-import, in months	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1		1
USD/XXX FX, aop	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Monetary policy & credit
Policy rate (%, eop)	0.75	1	1.25	1.25	1.5	1.75	2	2.25	2.5	2.5
Monetary base growth, %oya	-8.03	-1	-1.29	3.61	8.93	-1.4	-3.16	-8.06	-11.78
M1 growth, %oya	7.69	9	7.95	7.05	7.51	6.31	4.35	4.6	5
M3 growth, %oya	7.08	6.34	5.56	5.16	4.74	4.04	4.22	3.89	4.47
Credit to private non-fin., %oya	4.17	4.23	4.42	4.09	4.81	4.27	5.01
Public sector finance
Budget balance, 12m-trailing, $bn	-581.6	-653.1	-709.6	-665.8	-680.9	-738.7	-749.8	-779		-882.6
Budget balance, % GDP	-2.78	-3.82	-4.53	-2.6	-2.89	-5.32	-4.87	-2.9
Gross public debt, $bn	19977	19846	19845	20245	20493	21090	21195	21516	21974
Gross public debt, % GDP	105.26	103.57	102.51	103.35	103.33	105.23	103.84	104.15
External debt
Gross external debt, $bn	18325	18287	18624	18941	19019	19181	19307
Gross external debt, % GDP	96.56	95.43	96.2	96.7	95.9	95.71	94.58
Generic 10Y yield Local Gov (%, eop)	2.44	2.39	2.3	2.33	2.41	2.74	2.86	3.06	2.68	2.7
Generic 10Y yield USD Gov (%, eop)
Sovereign CDS, 5Y spread, bps
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg

MacroWatch BasicView - Macro compendium

Walid Dif - Quant Researcher

1 Latam

1.1 Brazil (BRL)

1.2 Chile (CLP)

1.3 Colombia (COP)

1.4 Mexico (MXN)

1.5 Peru (PEN)

1.6 Argentina (ARS)

2 CEEMEA

2.1 Czech Rep. (CZK)

2.2 Hungary (HUF)

2.3 Poland (PLN)

2.4 Romania (RON)

2.5 Russia (RUB)

2.6 Kazakhstan (KZT)

2.7 South Africa (ZAR)

2.8 Turkey (TRY)

2.9 Israel (ILS)

2.10 Egypt (EGP)

2.11 Nigeria (NGN)

3 EM Asia

3.1 China (CNH)

3.2 India (INR)

3.3 Indonesia (IDR)

3.4 Malaysia (MYR)

3.5 Thailand (THB)

3.6 Taiwan (TWD)

3.7 Korea (KRW)

3.8 Philippines (PHP)

3.9 HK (HKD)

3.10 Singapore (SGD)

4 G10 markets

4.1 Australia (AUD)

4.2 Canada (CAD)

4.3 Switzerland (CHF)

4.4 Eurozone (EUR)

4.5 UK (GBP)

4.6 Japan (JPY)

4.7 Norway (NOK)

4.8 New Zealand (NZD)

4.9 Sweden (SEK)

4.10 U.S. (USD)